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Tomasz Adamek vs. Chris Arreola Fight Preview and Prediction to Win

Tomasz Adamek vs. Chris Arreola Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, April 24, 2010
Where: Citizens Bank Arena in Ontario, California
TV: HBO at 11:15 p.m. (EST)
Weight Class: Heavyweights: 12 Rounds
By Scotty L of Predictem.com

Tomasz Adamek, 40-1 (27 KOs), Zywiec, Poland/Jersey City, New Jersey. Vs. Chris Arreola, 28-1 (25 KOs)

Fight Odds: Chris Arreola (-130), Tomasz Adamek (even)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-120), Under 9.5 (-120)

Analysis: An exciting heavyweight fight headlines Saturday’s HBO card from Ontario when Chris Arreola takes on two-division champion Tomasz Adamek. The winner likely zooms to the head of a shallow heavyweight class of contenders. The Klitschko brothers rule the roost in this division, but have not managed to thrill, beating one overmatched contender after the next in a clinical, emotionless manner.

It’s no wonder why fans so eagerly anticipate this bout. Adamek and Arreola are pure fighters. They throw a lot of punches, are tough, and can take a shot. Arreola lost two fights ago to Vitali Klitschko. He is a big, hard-hitting fighter who seems to suffer from a lack of discipline outside the ring. Not that he’s a bad guy or up to no good, but Arreola likes to enjoy himself, especially with his food and beer. He is still effective, but also deprives himself of the extra sharpness and conditioning that would come with a more Spartan lifestyle.

He seemed troubled by the sheer size of the giant Klitschko. Punching up at a target that returns fire had Arreola in knots, as he was completely ineffective against the Ukrainian. But when fighting against an opponent who is more in front of him and within reach, Arreola’s effectiveness rises. He’s taller and bigger than Adamek and should find it easier to do his thing.

Adamek is a fighter that has surprised many people. We all knew he was good, but since losing to Chad Dawson at 175 lbs., his form has been awesome. He moved up to cruiserweight and surprisingly brushed aside the formidable Steve Cunningham in a clear decision win. The extra 25 pounds seemed to help Adamek and a long reign at cruiserweight was expected. When he fought Andrew Golota in Poland, a blockbuster fight of high national interest, it seemed he was merely making a big-money cameo at heavyweight.

When Adamek fought Jason Estrada in his last fight at 220 lbs. it appeared he had made the jump for good. While the win over the tricky Estrada was a bit more difficult than expected, Adamek continued to show a surprisingly effective package at the new weight. In a few years, he has added almost 50 pounds. That might seem to be a cause for alarm—until you see him fight. The things that made him effective at the lower weights continue to carry him through at heavyweight. He continues to show a good work-rate, while throwing more punches and combinations than the average heavyweight. He also isn’t afraid to mix it up. His amazing chin and grit remain cornerstones to his considerable set of skills.

Both men are facing opponents unlike any they have ever faced. It remains to be seen if Adamek’s durability will hold up to the blows Arreola is capable of dishing out. Taking punches from a dilapidated Golota and Estrada is nice, but Arreola is a different ballgame. The guy can hit. There is also a possibility that Adamek’s sharpness and combinations will create a stark contrast to Arreola’s sometimes-sloppy boxing.

Adamek is not the slickest of fighters, but perhaps he will be able to circumvent many of Arreola’s offerings with his greater speed and boxing acumen. I don’t think he will abundantly move around the ring, but I see him shifting, stepping, and pivoting out of Arreola’s wheelhouse while peppering him shots. At some point, Adamek will get hit with something hot, but if he can avoid a prolonged salvo of punches, he may be able to avert disaster.

Scotty's Pick to Win: Arreola’s game is power and I don’t see him being shy about using it. Adamek will be hit and probably hurt over the course of the first 3 rounds. I see the Polish superstar being able to find his bearings more as the fight carries on. Arreola will remain dangerous, but Adamek’s greater form and technique will begin to increasingly round into shape. Adamek will be in control by the 9th round, survive a late scare or two, and win a unanimous decision. Lay the –130 on Tomasz Adamek to win.

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Each week, Big Scotty L makes picks on upcoming boxing matches in an attempt to make a punching bag out of his bookie. Scotty is a GREAT boxing handicapper who offers tremendous insight on the fights and his knowledge isn't just limited to boxing matches in the USA. He has a broad knowledge of international fights as well.

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