Boxing Betting Advice
by Scotty L of Predictem.com
Here is some advice to help you make wise decisions when betting on the sweet science:
Tidbit of Advice #1: Try to avoid parlays when possible: There are times when a situation may call for it. For example, if you want to bet a few or several significant favorites together. It would cost too much to bet them all straight. The only way you can make a decent profit is by grouping them together in a parlay. Also, if you have a very limited amount to bet and the fights all take place at the same time, a parlay might be a good option. Some players like to parlay two big underdogs together. Hitting a 6-1 and 8-1 on a $10 parlay provides a robust reward.
But even in football, for example, it is surprising how many opt for the convenience of a parlay. If you are betting 3 games at –110, you get 6-1 on a parlay. If these games start at different times, why not make straight bets. For the same risk, you would make a little more and leave yourself with the option of pulling out your winnings after your first or second win if you should have second thoughts.
The odds of boxing make the dynamics of the parlay a little different, but the principle remains the same. If you parlay boxers who are close to even-money, consider making straight bets. It gives you more control and more choice. It hurts to successfully pick 3 out of 4 bouts only to be a loser for the weekend.
Betting Advice #2: Bet more underdogs and less big favorites: If you bet “chalk,” no sport will eat up your bankroll up quicker than boxing. At some point, you’re going to need to make some good underdog picks. Think of it this way—if you bet 10-1 underdogs, you only have to be right one out of ten times to break even. If you can pick two 10-1 underdogs out of ten fights, you’re way ahead of the game.
Boxing is a sport of upsets. In other sports, a player having a bad day can be concealed. He’s only one out of many other players on the field. A pitcher getting hammered can get the hook. In boxing, there is no such luxury. If a fighter is having a bad day, there is no hiding from it. It happens to the best.
Most fighters who are now champions had to upset somebody along the line. Late last year, undefeated Jorge Salgado beat Jorge Linares for a belt. At one sportsbook, Salgado was a 16-1 underdog. Looking back, Linares looked to be the better fighter, but Salgado was highly regarded by observers and undefeated. Seems like it was worth a little bet. Just look at how many times you would have to unsuccessfully pick such an underdog to not make this a profitable play.
Conversely, you should be selective when playing huge favorites. You may see a dominant fighter at –600 against an uncelebrated foe. You bet $600 expecting to make an easy $100. It will probably work, but the margin of error is so slim that you have to be almost perfect to make this a profitable play in the long run. If you are wrong one out of six times, you will lose money betting like this. In boxing you would be surprised how often that “one out of six times” happens.
Betting Strategy #3: Be careful with proposition bets: Sportsbooks love when players make prop bets, the bets with the least positive expected value of any wagers on the board. The over-under bet might be tantalizing, but it sometimes is easier to determine who will win a fight rather than how it will be won. Maybe if you have two murderous-punching, weak-chinned, and evenly matched boxers where you can’t pick a winner, a bet on the under might be a good bet. Otherwise, try to simply focus on who will win a fight.
Round propositions offer large profits, but picking it is difficult and the house advantage is enormous. You will find picking the winning fighter to be an ample enough challenge without having to predict the exact round. Other bets such as picking how a fighter will win are a bit more appealing, but still problematic. If you pick a fighter to win by knockout, but he merely batters his valiant opponent for a lopsided decision win, you lose the bet despite not being too far off in your analysis.
Don’t put yourself in the position of being correct, but losing because you made it too difficult for yourself. When you think a fighter is going to win, don’t sabotage yourself by trying to pinpoint exactly how he will win. If you want to make prop bets, make them the side orders rather than the entrée on your wagering plate.
Betting Advice #4: Shop for the best odds!: It's rare that every bookie be offering the same odds for the fight. If you're going to bet, do it the right way. Shop for the best line. When you go to the store you compare prices to save pocket change on toilet paper. Why note shop for the best betting odds? Line shopping will save you big bucks over the long haul. We recommend that you have at least 2 (if not more) places to bet the fights. Check out our Recommended Sportsbooks List for the best places to bet on the sport online.
Make straight bets for the most part. If a favorite is more than 2-1 and you don’t have a lot to bet, parlaying it with another similarly favored fighter is fine. Modest favorites warrant straight wagers. Underdogs naturally should be bet straight as well.
The rule of thumb is to keep it simple.
Each week, Big Scotty L makes picks on upcoming boxing matches in an attempt to make a punching bag out of his bookie. Scotty is a GREAT boxing handicapper who offers tremendous insight on the fights and his knowledge isn't just limited to boxing matches in the USA. He has a broad knowledge of international fights as well.
Follow Scotty each week as he previews the best fights of the week. These fight previews can be found in the center section of this page. Good luck!
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Boxing Betting Rules - Clear cut definitions of how the sportsbooks grade fights to determine if your bet is a winner or a loser. Two big questions are "what if the fight was a draw?" and "what if I have an over/under rounds bet and the fight ends early?" We have all the answers!
Best Pound for Pound Fighters - Who are the top 10 best pound for pound boxers of all time? Scotty L gives his picks.
Fight Records of Past Boxing Greats - Wins, losses, draws and Ko's of some of the best boxers to ever step foot in the ring. Sugar Ray Robinson, Cassius Clay, Rocky Marciano and more!
Famous Boxing Quotes - Funny, inspirational, and great sayings from Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson and more!
Muhammad Ali Biography - The life story of the greatest fighter of all time from his childhood to his last bout at age 39.
What is a TKO? - Scotty explains what the TKO is in boxing and all the different ways that a fighter can win by the technical knockout.