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Andre Berto vs. Carlos Quintana Fight Preview and Pick to Win

Andre Berto vs. Carlos Quintana Fight Preview and Prediction
When: Saturday, April 10, 2010
Where: Bank Atlantic Center, Sunrise, Florida
TV: HBO at 10:30 p.m. (EST)
Weight Class: WBC Welterweight Championship
By Scotty L of

Andre Berto, 25-0 (19 KOs), Winterhaven, Florida, WBC Welterweight Champion. Vs. Carlos Quintana, 27-2 (21 KOs), Moca, Puerto Rico.

Fight Odds: Andre Berto (-600), Carlos Quintana (+400)

Analysis: A great match in the stacked welterweight division takes place on April 10 when Andre Berto defends his WBC Welterweight Title for the 4th time against former WBO Champion Carlos Quintana. Berto’s championship laurels are iffy, having won the “title” against someone named Miguel Angel Rodriguez, a fighter the WBC found fit to rank highly despite the fact that no close followers of the game had him in their top 50. Nevertheless, Berto is certainly a good fighter and belongs near the top of the welterweight rankings.

Quintana is a bit of an odd bird. Sometimes when you watch him, he’s getting splattered on the canvas against the likes of Paul Williams and Miguel Cotto. Other times, he is schooling good fighters like Joel Julio and the aforementioned Williams. The win over Williams was a titanic upset and really put Quintana on the map. Williams was coming off a win over the feared Antonio Margarito, while Quintana was fresh off the embarrassing KO loss to Cotto. Quintana frustrated Williams with his clever boxing and nifty movement.

When Williams demolished Quintana in the 1st round of the rematch, it cast somewhat of a fluky glow on his win in the first fight. Perhaps Williams was just looking past Quintana. This is possible, but usually flukes are not the type of comprehensive decisions like the one Quintana won over Williams. The fight was close, but he clearly appeared to win. It wasn’t as if he landed a lucky punch.

Berto, with 19 knockouts in 25 fights, has decent power, but not as much as his record might suggest. His game is speed and he has plenty of it. He throws punches in bunches and often overwhelms his foes with volume. Sometimes, however, Berto’s offense seems like a lot of bluster. He just throws flurries without it necessarily leading anywhere. His vision of a fight still needs development. Many of his fights seem directionless. He just relies on his talent to win the majority of exchanges. Rinse and repeat.

A few questions surrounding Berto throw a little doubt on his prospects in this fight. He was scheduled to face Shane Mosley, when the earthquake in Haiti occurred a few weeks before the bout occurred. Berto, a Haitian-American with family unaccounted for in the wake of the quake, understandably pulled out. So now he gets Quintana in a far less-celebrated fight. One would almost have to assume there would be a little mental comedown on the part of Berto.

Another troubling fact is that Berto had the fight of his life the last time he faced a clever stylist like Quintana. In January of ’09, Luis Collazo gave Berto fits in their fight. I might be in the minority, but I thought Collazo edged it. If Berto struggled so mightily with Collazo, he could conceivably have an even harder time with Quintana.

Quintana is not without issues of his own. First are the two wipeouts at the hands of Williams and Cotto. While those fighters just might be a level above Berto at this point, they are still troubling results. I think Berto is the more robust of the two fighters. Quintana is the cleverer fighter, but his recent work is not inspiring. After the rematch against Williams, he only had 1 fight over the next 18 months. One would like to see more of a regular workload prior to taking on someone as formidable as Berto.

Scotty's Pick to Win: Again, the value betting principle raises its head. If someone asked me casually who I thought would win this fight without any odds or betting implications, I’d take Berto. But at –600, I can’t see it. Sure, he’s likely to win, but there is enough ammo in the case of Quintana to justify a tickle at +400. Quintana is talented enough, with a good ring I.Q. to make him a threat against Berto. I can understand those who may feel that his window of success at the top level in boxing has passed and at 33, he may be a spent force. Something just tells me that maybe he has enough fight in him to make this close and at least give a good sweat to those bold enough to take Berto at –600. Take the +400 on Carlos Quintana to win.

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