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Lucian Bute vs. Edison Miranda Fight Preview and Prediction

Lucian Bute vs. Edison Miranda Fight Preview and Prediction
When: Saturday, April 17, 2010
Where: Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
TV: HBO at 10:00 p.m. (EST)
Weight Class: IBF Super Middleweight Championship: 12 Rounds
by Scotty L of Predictem.com

Lucian Bute, 25-0 (20 KOs), Montreal, Quebec, Canada. IBF Super Middleweight Champion. Vs. Edison Miranda, 33-4 (29 KOs), Carolina, Puerto Rico.

Fight Odds: Lucian Bute (-600), Edison Miranda (+450)

Analysis: Lucian Bute defends his IBF Super Middleweight Title against hard-punching Edison Miranda on April 17 on HBO. Montreal is the hometown of the Romanian-born Bute and he has enjoyed great success at the Bell Centre. The 6’2” Bute won his first 15 fights by knockout, but has settled into a nice boxing style since upgrading the quality of his opposition. He is a real thoroughbred—an ultra-talented and hard-hitting boxer who is at the top of a stacked division.

For Miranda, the Colombian-born contender, this is his last chance to make headway in the upper echelon in boxing. The big-talking puncher has had several chances, and despite some successes, he has fallen short to the call of greatness. It has been refreshing to see him take a more relaxed approach in the build-up to this fight. Normally, he is spewing venom and making bombastic threats of violence. Maybe he began to see the absurdity of talking such smack against the best fighters in the world—guys who can make you eat those words, which is exactly what they did.

Bute had an extensive amateur career and is the more educated boxer. He moves cleverly around the ring with his smooth-boxing style coming from his long 6’2” frame. He was conspicuously left off the roster for the Super Six World Boxing Classic—a round-robin tournament involving the best super middleweights in the world. While he is missing out on some big fights, he may also be sparing himself the wear that comes from fighting great fighters in a series of consecutive fights. He just might be the one who comes out shining in the end.

The popular Montreal attraction has scored wins over top divisional threats Librado Andrade (twice) and Sakio Bika. The second Andrade fight was Bute’s last performance and perhaps his best. It was a rematch from a hotly contested first bout where the implacable Andrade came a hair from scoring a final-round knockout and Bute appeared to get a little help from the hometown referee. In the rematch, Bute stunningly stopped the durable Andrade with a wicked body shot that really showed another dimension of this rising talent.

Miranda is not a fighter to be overlooked. While lacking in finesse, he possesses fearful power in both hands that is perhaps unrivalled in the division. The problem is that he doesn’t always have a very easy time landing those shots against world-class fighters. Miranda is crude but determined. He grew up in harrowing conditions—abandoned as a young child and forced to fend for himself from a very early age. He is a born fighter. It just seems that he eventually gets lost in fights when he faces more versatile top pros. The more the tide goes against him, the less able he is to find answers.

I see this as possibly a bad match-up for Miranda. I feel that for his power to bloom, he needs an opponent whose M.O. is to stand and fight. Bute is more of a tricky sort and not the type of fighter to relinquish his vast margin in ability by trading with a fighter of Miranda’ power and reputation. I suppose if the equally crude Andrade was able to nail Bute and have him on the verge of demise, then Miranda could do the same. Bute, however, seems to have learned from his mistakes in that fight. He was too tense in the first fight and he seemed far more settled-in and relaxed in the rematch.

Scotty's Pick to Win: Miranda will always have a puncher’s chance. He truly had deadening power and Bute has at least an air of fragility about him, so there have been less live underdogs in fights to be sure. I feel that the conditions are all wrong, however, for a Miranda upset and would be almost shocked if he managed to pull it off. First of all, fighting Bute in Montreal is a lot to overcome. The rabid pro-Bute throng has a way of accentuating everything Bute does, while underplaying the good work of his opponents. Miranda has also been recently speaking of retirement—a typically unsettling thing for fighters to say with a big fight ahead.

I think Miranda will be dangerous for about four rounds, during which time Bute will be in a state of high alert. Bute will pile up points, as Miranda’s output and verve begin to dip. By the 8th or 9th round, Bute will be in full command. I think there is a solid chance that Miranda could last the full route, but the closer we get to fight night, the more I lean in favor of a late stoppage for Bute, perhaps somewhere around the 10th round. Lay the –600 on Lucian Bute to win.

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