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Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Saul Alvarez Pick

Floyd Mayweather Jr. (44-0; 26 KO’s) v Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (42-0-1; 30 KO’s)
Date: September 14, 2013
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena Las Vegas, NV 
TV: SHOWTIME PPV …MGM Closed Circuit
Weight Class: WBA/WBC/Ring Magazine Super Welterweight
by Tim of

Mayweather vs Alvarez. Alvarez will man-handle and clown Mayweather Jr. maybe into retirement. Mayweather should have stayed afraid of bigger opponents.  Let me explain.

The year was 1984: Disco got the heave-ho, Neck-Car became NASCAR, and Savings & Loans were bailed out faster than a sinking Cruise Ship hosting a Ditch-Digger’s Convention. Tommy Hearns moved up a slight weight class to Middleweight after blasting boxing legends, Wilfred Benitez and “No Mas; No Mas” Roberto Duran (by KO!).  Hearns is 1984 “Fighter of the Year”, steps up and fights Marvin Hagler and Hagler is overwhelmingly too strong for Hearns. Don’t believe the hype: I saw the fight live and Hagler laughed when Hearns hit him with his best shots.

1982...  Alexis Arguello owned three different weight divisions and was tactically the “World’s Best Fighter”. Arguello could punch like a Middleweight as well knocking out Ray Mancini and other steel-jawed Champions on his way to hold three different weight class belts. Arguello wanted another weight class belt.  Junior Welterweight Champion Aaron Pryor stood in Arguello’s way. Arguello moved up in class and brought 45+ more fights into the ring against Pryor.  Pryor destroyed Arguello before a stunned audience and “Fight Experts”.  Arguello tried Pryor one last time a year later; Arguello was lucky he wasn’t killed.

This Mayweather Jr. fight is a little different than the Floyd’s past fights of respectable opponents. Mayweather Jr and Alvarez are going to fight at a “catchweight” of 152 lbs.  Mayweather Jr. is a welterweight at 147 pounds. Mayweather’s weight has always been a constant 147---not 148 or 151, but 147.  Mayweather Jr.s opponents have all been lighter or the same weight as Mayweather Jr.  Alvarez is a Super Welterweight at 154 pounds. Most reasonable boxing critics are convinced Mayweather Jr. insisted on this catchweight. Alvarez could easily balloon to 160 or higher because he has the frame for carrying more weight.  I believe Mayweather Jr. is walking into a deep lake without a snorkel in this fight.  Boxing critics for years have been nipping at Mayweather’s pride suggesting Floyd may be ducking fighters in weight classes just above his in order to fight ‘weaker’ or ‘lighter’ opponents (see: Marquez). This time, Mayweather may have made a MAJOR mistake in choosing his opponent.  By not moving up in weight class in his earlier days at welterweight, Mayweather is setting himself up as a ghost in an unfamiliar haunted house.  A younger bigger fighter (Alvarez) with little to lose against an aging, undersized Mayweather might end up being De La Hoya vs Mayweather Jr. with role reversal. Mayweather might do the same thing against Alvarez as he did to DeLa Hoya, but Alvarez will not be anything like De La Hoya was during Mayweather’s fight with De La Hoya; Alvarez is bigger, stronger, younger and much hungrier than a punchy, looking for retirement 34 year old De La Hoya.

One desperate thing has stayed pretty constant throughout boxing history, “A Boxer afraid of losing will most likely lose.”  Yes, Arguello, Hearns, Duran, De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, Livingstone Bramble, Billy Conn all lost fights because-for the most part-they took on “All Comers”.  For most of Floyd Mayweather’s career the “catchweight” is, “Pad the Stats.”  Perhaps Mayweather is sincerely concerned that a loss will somehow diminish his reputation or lower his machismo.  I say Mayweather Jr’s career is already tarnished because he fights afraid; afraid to lose. We only have one life to live and when we attempt to hold the pendulum of time in place, we end up becoming captured forever in our own singular realities. Mayweather Jr. is stepping out of his own comfort zone.  To what extent that step is measured is already apparent. Mayweather Jr. is like a child who has been teased because he cannot swim and is afraid of water.  He then dangles dips his toes in the unknown exclaiming, “Look everyone! I’m not afraid of water!”  This time I predict, Floyd Mayweather Jr. has dangled his mouth in the water and will drown in his mortality because of it.  I predict a relatively quick KO by persistent and haunting Alvarez; and when it is all said and done?  I see Mayweather nestling back into the welterweight division finding no more junior welterweights to fight padding Floyd’s stats. This will be a shocking KO---just like Tyson v Douglas…and Mayweather’s ship will sail across the horizon sporting life jackets for Mayweather and his crew, never to fight again drifting away forever carrying his narcissism and his stats. “Best Pound for Pound Fighter in the World?” No chance Mayweather has already made certain his inevitable defeat.  6 rounds or under and this fight is over.  KO by Alvarez.

Tim's Pick to Win the Fight: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez: +230
Mayweather is a -300 favorite here.  Look at the line: “-300 Mayweather, +230 Alvarez.” It appears sportsbooks might be looking to capitalize on an Alvarez win. The line may also indicate the propensity for Mayweather to get a close decision.  I know that, you know that, and Alvarez knows that. No steppin’ and dancin’ here with Mayweather.  Alvarez knows this is his shot.  Alvarez has proven he can KO much bigger opponents than Mayweather.  He also will not let Mayweather circle and strike. Mayweather cannot hurt Alvarez and you might find a Mayweather “Rope a Dope” but any tactic will be useless.  Alvarez KO in 7 rounds or less. “Say Goodnight Mr. Money!”

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