2008 NCAA Tournament - West Region Preview and Picks

2008 NCAA Tournament Preview – West Region
by Badger of Predictem.com

All roads in this region end up in Phoenix, Arizona, at the U.S. Airways Center for the West Regional finals the weekend of March 27th – 30th. First and second round games will be played this Thursday through Sunday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. and St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa Bay, Florida.

Thursday, March 20th
Honda Center
Anaheim, Calif.

#1 UCLA Bruins (31-3)
#16 Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (17-15)
Line: UCLA -31.5 Total: 122

At least Mississippi Valley State doesn't have to play an extra play- in game to get clobbered by a No. 1 seed in the opening round.

The Delta Devils won the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) Tournament as the No. 2 seed, following a stellar 14-15 regular season. The Devils won three games in the SWAC tourney, so they are playing well, but a 14-15 team playing as the 2-seed should give you an indication of the SWAC’s quality of play.

Adding to the Delta Devils’ mountain to climb is the fact that they only average 62.7 points per game. UCLA’s defense only allows 59 points per game to teams in the PAC-10 that score 70 to 80 a game, so the Devils better hope they break 20. Mississippi Valley State only scored 26 in a 71-26 thumping by Washington State from the PAC 10.

UCLA claimed the regular season and tournament championship in the PAC 10 Conference. They’ve also been the Final Four the past two seasons, so they are battle-tested and experienced. The Bruins were 19-12-2 ATS this year, including a 1-1 ATS record in games where they were +30-point favorites.

The Delta Devils only had four games with odds this season, going 1-3 ATS in those chances including the game versus Washington State were they failed to cover as 32-point underdogs.

Pick: A line of 30-plus points is too much for me to recommend in either direction. Take the under on this game and hope the Bruins call off the dogs early so they don’t score too many. Bet this game using your credit card to deposit at BetUS

#8 BYU Cougars (27-7)
#9 Texas A&M Aggies (24-10)
Line: Texas A&M -2 Total: 129.5

The beauty of these 8-seed/9-seed matchups is they truly can go either way. This game will also be the litmus test for the small conference-big conference debate. If Texas A&M, a middle-tier team from the Big 12, can win easily over the Mountain West Conference (MWC) champion BYU Cougars, it would emphasize the strength of the Big 12 this season.

However, BYU is no pushover. The Cougars play defense, which translates into any league. BYU is 9th in opponent’s field goal percentage (38.6%) and 5th in opponent’s 3-point percentage (29.4%), so they can defend versus anyone.

They also played well in non-MWC games during the year, beating Louisville (78-76 on Nov. 23) before respectable losses to North Carolina (73-63 on Nov. 24th) and Michigan State (68-61 on Dec. 8th).

Texas A&M is also a defense-first team, as they allow opponents just a 39.3 percent shooting percentage from the floor. Their best game this season was on January 30th when they destroyed Texas at home, 80-63. The Aggies did struggle down the stretch, losing five of their last seven in the regular season before winning two-out-of-three in the Big 12 tourney.

Both teams were winners for bettors, but barely. BYU’s ATS record of 16-11-3 is a little better than Texas A&M’s 15-13 record versus the number. BYU is solid in their last 10 games though, going 6-2-2 ATS, while A&M covered in all three Big 12 tourney games last week but has only been a favorite in one game since it turned March.

Pick: Nerves, a neutral floor and a strong offensive-vs.-defensive mismatch for both teams make this an ugly game. If the score of this game barely gets into the 60s, so take the under. If I had to take a side, I’d take BYU plus the points. Bet this game using your checking account to deposit at Beted Sportsbook

Thursday, March 20th
Verizon Center
Washington, D.C.

#6 Purdue Boilermakers (24-8)
#11 Baylor Bears (21-10)
Line: Purdue -2.5 Total: 143

This game features this season’s surprise Big 10 team, Purdue, versus this year’s surprise Big 12 team, Baylor. The similarities between the two teams don’t stop there either.

Both schools raced out to great starts, but the bloom has fallen off the rose for both teams of late since both teams were stunned by upsets in their respective conference tourneys in overtime (Baylor by Colorado 91-84; Purdue by Illinois, 74-67).

Both teams also feature guard-heavy lineups. Five of Baylor’s top six scorers are guards, while Purdue’s top five scorers are ALL guards.

At 81.4 points per game, Baylor is going to want to push the pace and turn it into a 3-point shooting contest. Purdue is a young team (all freshman and sophomores), so if they get caught up in the heat of the moment it could play out in the Bear’s favor. Expect the Boilermakers to make it a more deliberate, defensive game, which is their biggest strength (only 61.2 ppg allowed -23rd in NCAA).

Baylor is a strong 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games. Purdue meanwhile went 17-1-1 ATS this year including a 14-3-1 ATS record in the last 18 games overall. Both teams have excellent road records too, with Baylor at 10-3 ATS and Purdue at 9-4-1 ATS.

Something will have to give on the total too because Baylor is 13-3 for the over in their last 16 games as an underdog, while the under is 8-1 in the last nine games with Purdue as a favorite.

Pick: Baylor is an extremely difficult team to play as an 11-seed, but Purdue’s defense will make it hard for the Bears. In the end though a few late 3-pointer’s lifts Baylor past the upstart Boilermakers.

Take Baylor plus the points, then look out for Purdue next season. Bet this game at reduced odds at 5Dimes

#3 Xavier Musketeers (27-8)
#14 Georgia Bulldogs (17-16)
Line: Xavier -7.5 Total: 129.5

Georgia pulled off one of the more impressive feats in recent college basketball history by winning four games, including two in one day, to take home the SEC Tournament championship and the SEC’s automatic bid. Two of those four games went into overtime too, making you wonder just how much gas the Bulldogs have left in the tank, mentally and physically.

Prior to the Bulldogs miracle run in the SEC tourney they had lost six of their last seven, and 11 of their last 13 games, so don’t get too caught up in their recent history. Georgia head coach Dennis Felton probably saved his job in the process. The reality is that Georgia was barely an NIT team before the run, now that they made the run will that sub-NIT team come back into play?

Xavier was ranked in the AP top-25 most of the season and took down an Atlantic-10 Conference that got three teams into the Big Dance (Temple and St. Joseph’s) to the tune of a 14-2 conference record. The Musketeers also beat Kansas State by 26 points (103-77), and took Tennessee down to the wire in an 82-75 loss.

Xavier lost to St. Joe’s twice in the past 10 days, including in the A-10 tourney semifinals, so they haven’t played as strong of late as they did during an 11-game winning streak in January through early March. The Musketeers are also a deep, senior-heavy team that will be playing with a chip on the shoulders since no one on the team was voted onto the A-10’s first-team all conference list.

It’s hard to glean any edge off of each team’s ATS and over/under records. Both were mediocre versus the number (Georgia 16-13 ATS, Xavier 13-16 ATS), although the Bulldogs covered in all four SEC tourney games while Xavier has struggled down the stretch (1-4 ATS last 5 games).

Pick: Xavier will likely win this game, but we think that the Bulldogs will cover. X is the better team but Georgia is hot and you just can't overlook that!

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#7 West Virginia Mountaineers (24-6)
#10 Arizona Wildcats (19-14)
Line: W.Virginia -2 Total: 136

A lot of people think the NCAA selection committee took the wrong team from Arizona (Arizona State beat the Arizona twice), so look for the Wildcats to take the “Us vs. the World” mentality into this game.

They will need a lot of help too, as they struggled down the stretch of the regular season (when they needed wins as a bubble team) losing three out of the last four games. Then they lost by 11 points versus Stanford in the PAC 10 tourney, a game many thought they needed to win just to get in.

West Virginia had a nice run through the Big East tournament, beating Providence (58-53) and upsetting Connecticut (78-72) before bowing out versus top-seeded Georgetown (lost 72-55).

The Mountaineers have found a go-to player on offense in forward Joe Alexander. Alexander’s scoring (26.8 ppg in last 6 games) with a prototypical Bob Huggins-type defense has proven to be a good one-two combo for West Virginia lately. Alexander wore down in the Georgetown game (only 12 points), and when he doesn’t score the Mountaineers can struggle.

Arizona has already announced that legendary coach Lute Olson will be returning next season, so I’m not saying it gives the Wildcats a built-in excuse for next year, but it gives them a built-in excuse for a bad loss. If not for three wins versus the low end of the PAC 10 gene pool (Oregon St., Washington), the Wildcats would have been 0- fer since February 14th. That’s not an accident.

Pick: Take the Wildcats plus the points.

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#2 Duke Blue Devils (27-5)
#15 Belmont Bruins (25-8)
Line: Duke -19.5 Total: 154

The Belmont Bruins are in the tournament for the third straight time and will be riding the wave of a 13-game winning streak when they clash with the 2nd-seeded Duke Blue Devils on Thursday. By the looks of things, the Bruins may want to get off the wave before it runs aground.

One mismatch that’s too hard to ignore is Duke’s 84.1 points per game average on offense versus Belmont’s 279th-ranked scoring defense (allow 73.5 ppg). Let’s just say it could be a really long day for Bruin fans. Their saving grace is they should be able to hang with Duke on offense, as the Bruins do average 80.1 points per game and aren’t afraid to chuck up a lot of shots (29 3-point attempts per game).

Belmont played six games all season with a betting line, going 4-2 ATS in those six. One of those covers was an 86-75 victory over Cincinnati (as 8.5-point dogs) in the season opener back on Nov. 9th. The Bruins are also a strong over play apparently, as the over cashed in for five of the six games this season and is 7-1 in their last eight games with a total.

Duke is on a rather dry spell for bettors (3-7-1 ATS in last 11 games overall), but still finished in the money for the season (16-13-2 ATS). The under has hit in six of Duke’s last seven games, but Duke failed to hit 80 points (their season average) in four of those seven games.

Pick: Belmont’s ability to score is why this spread is less than 20 points. I never really like betting on 1-vs-16 or 2-vs-15 games because it’s usually too many points to give and not enough to take. But I do like the over bet, as two 80-plus scoring teams light it up from 3-point land. Take the over.

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Friday, March 21st
St. Pete Times Forum
Tampa Bay, Fla.

#5 Drake Bulldogs (28-4)
#12 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (27-6)
Line: Drake -4.5 Total: 140.5

If I had told you before the season that the Drake-Western Kentucky NCAA Tourney game could end up being thee best first-round game out of them all, you’d have called me a fraud. But that’s exactly the case in this 5-12 matchup.

Drake is a team loaded to the gills with 3-point shooters, and a senior point guard (Adam Emmenecker) that knows how to drive-n-kick to get them countless open looks. Western Kentucky counters with one of the best “unknown” guards in the country in Courtney Lee (20.3 ppg) and a similar up-tempo style of offense that could make this game a memorable one.

There’s no doubt that Drake has been the darling of the NCAA all season. They were the darlings of the media for their mid-major charm, picked-to-finish 9th and wound up with a 28-4 record story line. The Bulldogs were the darlings of bettors by virtue of their 20-7-1 ATS record for the year.

Western Kentucky was also strong for bettors, with a 17-12 ATS record, including a run of five straight covers before the big dance.

Pick: Drake is the story this season, but the 12-5 matchup is classic for upsets and Western Kentucky has the potential to do it. It’s hard to tell which bet I like the best in this game: the over, Western Kentucky plus the points, or the Hilltoppers on a moneyline wager. I’ll probably do all three.

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#4 Connecticut Huskies (24-8)
#13 San Diego Toreros (21-13)
Line: Conn. -12 Total: 131.5

The NCAA selection committee put together a classic East Coast-vs.- West Coast game with the Connecticut and San Diego first round game Friday.

San Diego won the West Coast Conference (WCC) automatic bid by beating Gonzaga in the WCC tourney final. Connecticut lost early in the Big East tourney, throwing a monkey wrench into the Huskies ideas of a higher seed.

Connecticut had a 10-game winning streak and was probably thee hottest team in January and February, so don’t let their recent stumbles (an 85-76 loss at Providence, 78-72 loss to West Virginia) trick you. The Huskies could still be a very dangerous (and not necessarily a popular) Final Four pick.

If Drake was the darling of college basketball bettors this season, than San Diego was their hot tag-along girlfriend. The Toreros were 21-9 ATS this season, including nine of their last 10 and a stellar 13-3 ATS since January 1st. San Diego can struggle to score at times when they are away from home (only 55 ppg on neutral floors), and the naysayers will say that the only reason the Toreros are in the Big Dance anyway was because the WCC Tourney was on their home floor. Go figure.

Pick: San Diego is a better team then the Linesmaker is giving them credit for, so I’m all over the Toreros in this game. Take the Toreros plus the points as they push UConn to the limit before giving away late. Take San Diego plus the points.

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