Final Four Preview and Picks: MSU vs. Uconn

Final Four Preview and Picks
Michigan State (30-6) +4, 133.5 O/U vs. Connecticut Huskies (31-4) -4, 133.5 O/U, Ford Field, Detroit, Mich., Saturday, April 4th, 6:07 PM EST, CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

The opening game of Saturday night’s Final Four college basketball showcase at Ford Field in Detroit will feature a little bit of home cooking, when the hometown Michigan State Spartans take on the Connecticut Huskies.

The atmosphere under the retractable roof of Ford Field may not approach the love/hate emotional level of that similar to the Catholics-versus-Convicts days of old, but it certainly will have an extra edge to it come Saturday.

The Spartans program is run by squeaky-clean head coach Tom Izzo and is located a mere 90 miles away in East Lansing, so they will not only enjoy the support of the local crowd, but likely the support of fans from the two other schools involved in Saturday’s doubleheader as well, to make it a packed house for the boys in the Spartan green.

Meanwhile, the Huskies will try and continue to feed off the “us versus the world” mentality they’ve been rallying behind since the allegations of recruiting violations surfaced against the team in its opening round. So far the team has thrived in the role of the hated enemy, and there’s no doubt head coach Jim Calhoun will try and use the pro-Spartan crowd at Ford Field as motivation for his Huskies players.

Oddsmakers seem to be aware of the potential home-court advantage as they opened the game with Connecticut as a modest 4-point favorites, the lowest point spread the Huskies have been favored by in the tournament so far. The 4-point number has held firm through early betting too, as it seems to be balancing the take on both sides so far.

The over/under total is a bet the oddsmaker had to adjust a little quicker and more often, as early money jumped all over the opening total of 135, causing it to fall all the way down to it’s current level of 133.5 at most sportsbooks. A few of the offshore sportsbooks still list their total at 134, so you can shop around and find a half- point one way or the other depending on your needs.

As you’d expect both teams enter the Final Four hot, on the court and at the window.

As the No.1-seed in the West, Connecticut rolled up some pretty big scores in the opening rounds (103-47 over Chattanooga, 92-66 over Texas A&M) and as a result are scoring at a 87.3 points per game average in the tourney. In the Sweet 16-round the Huskies defense showed up in a 72-60 victory over Purdue, followed by a near-perfect game ousting Missouri in the regional final, 82-75.

At the window all four Huskies games in the tournament have covered the point spread so far, all the way from minus-20 favorites versus Chattanooga to 6-point favorites over Mizzou. Three of their four games have gone over the total, with the lowest total (133 vs. Purdue) out of the four being the lone game not to light up the scoreboard.

Michigan State enters as the No. 2-seed out of the Midwest, fresh of their biggest and best effort of the season in a 64-52 takedown of Louisville in the regional finals. One could say the Spartans have played “up to their competition” in the tourney so far, as their 77-62 win over Robert Morris and their 74-69 win over USC were squeakers that shouldn’t have been that close.

But then the Spartans had a perfect dream Sweet 16 round, as they came-from-behind to drop Kansas, 67-62, followed by the win over the Cardinals nobody thought they could pull off. As a result the Spartans are also a perfect 4-0 ATS, covering the big number (minus-14.5 vs. Robert Morris) as well as playing the underdog (plus-6 vs. Louisville) role.

Badger’s Pick
I think this game will ultimately come down to the length and athleticism of UConn forwards Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrien. I think Michigan State will be so concerned with stopping Hasheem Thabeet that Robinson and Adrien will thrive in the paint. The Spartans defense will make them work for it, but the Huskies will hit their free throws and easily cover the 4-points with a 73-62 score.

The Oracle’s Pick
Michigan State took out the top seed in the tournament, so there is no doubt they can beat anybody that is put in front of them. They've proved a lot of doubters wrong and have represented the Big 10 well. Tom Izzo will have his guys ready, and they'll even have the "home court" advantage. I see the depth of the Spartans keeping them in this game. UConn has faced some tough defenses this season, but the Spartans will bring it. Ultimately, though, it's not going to be Hasheem Thabeet or A.J. Price that will make the difference for other Huskies in this one. It'll be the underappreciated play of Stanley Robinson and freshman phenom Kimba Walker that will carry UConn to the win. The Huskies squeak out a win in the last couple of minutes for a 66-62 victory.

Wilson's Pick
Hey folks, welcome to the Spartan’s home away from home…Detroit! This game will be a battle between two storied programs that have been here before. But my money is riding on Michigan State. The Spartans crushed the No. 1 overall seed Louisville and really made a statement heading into this weekend’s Final Four. It’s basically home court advantage for the Spartans and also the thirty year anniversary of their championship over Indiana State as Magic Johnson smiled passed Larry Bird. Spartans 70, Huskies 64!

The Editor's Pick: I like MSU!

Free Picks

Betting