2009 Men's NCAA Championship Game

2009 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship Game

Michigan State (31-6) +7.5, 153 O/U vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4) -7.5, 153 O/U, Ford Field, Detroit, Mich., Monday, April 6th, 9:15 PM EST, CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

Will the Michigan State Spartans continue their improbable march toward an NCAA Men’s Basketball title at their new home away from home Ford Field on Monday night, or will they finally run into the buzz saw that is the North Carolina Tar Heels looking to finally make good on their lofty preseason No.1 ranking?

The Spartans continued their storybook NCAA tournament run with a spectacular, 82-73, victory over the Connecticut Huskies in Saturday’s early Final Four game. Point guard Kalin Lucas had 21 points and his backcourt mate Raymar Morgan added 18 as the Spartans outran the Huskies in the transition game.

But the Spartans will more than likely have to go back to their traditional, methodical, Big 10-defensive approach versus the Tar Heels if they hope to contain the boys from Chapell Hill. North Carolina appears to be on a mission to win the title because they dismantled a strong Villanova team on Saturday, 83-69, giving them a double-digit victory for every game of the NCAA tournament.

Oddsmakers opened the title game with the Tar Heels as 7.5-point favorites, the same or nearly the same number they have been favored by in each of their last three games in the tourney (-7.5 vs. Gonzaga; -7 vs. Oklahoma; -7 vs. Villanova). Two Internet sportsbooks, betED.com and Sportsbetting.com, have already moved the number to North Carolina minus 8-points, but for the most part the rest of the offshore sportsbooks have held firm at 7.5.

The over/under total opened at 155 and was hammered enough by sharp bettors early on that it dropped all the way to 152.5 at most books. You will still see it listed at 152.5 at most books, but there are a few 153s and 154s at the offshore sportsbooks as they adjust the take back to even.

Monday’s game will hinge on Michigan State’s ability to protect the ball and play defense, something that killed them back in December when the Tar Hells hung 98 points on them in a lopsided, 98-63, victory on the same floor at Ford Field.

Not much went right for the Spartans on that Wednesday night. North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough controlled the paint by scoring 25 points and grabbing 11 rebounds, and Ty Lawson dished out 8 assists and had seven of the Tar Heels nine steals in the game. The Tar Heels also forced Michigan State into 21 turnovers, giving the Spartans a total of 30 scoreless possessions in the game to turn a good game into a slow and painful beatdown.

The good news is that Michigan State has been playing great defense so far in the tourney. They held Connecticut point guard A.J. Price to just 17 points (on 4-of-20 shooting) on Saturday. The other positive for the Spartans is the fact that center Goran Suton did not play in the game back in December, so Hansbrough will have to work a little harder to earn his space in the paint on Monday.

Both teams have been good to faithful bettors in the tourney so far, as both have covered the point spread in every game for a perfect 5-0 ATS record.

All but one of the Tar Heels first five games have stayed under the total, with the exception coming against a high-scoring Gonzaga team. After playing suffocating defense in wins over Kansas and Louisville and coming in under the total in both, the Spartans running ways shocked the Huskies and bettors alike as they easily went over the total in their Final Four game to move them to 3-2 versus the number in the tourney.

Badger’s Pick: After witnessing the coaching job by Tom Izzo versus Louisville and UConn in back-to-back games, I got to believe he’s capable of one more defensive miracle. But that said, I still think the Tar Heels are too strong to stop. North Carolina wins and covers the spread with late free throws in the final minute. Take North Carolina minus the 7.5-points and the under of 154.

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