Purdue Boilermakers vs. Indiana Hoosiers Preview and Pick

Purdue Boilermakers (21-5) +4.5, 131.5 O/U at Indiana Hoosiers (3-6) -4.5, 131.5 O/U, Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana, 7 PM Eastern, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

When the 14th-ranked Purdue Boilermakers travel to Assembly Hall on Tuesday to take on their in-state Big 10 rival 15th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers, there are going to be so many story lines surrounding the game it’s going to be hard to keep track of all of them.

First off, you got the ongoing soap opera surrounding Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson still percolating. Will this be his last game as the Hoosiers coach? Will the players continue to respond well to the turmoil surrounding them and the situation at Indiana?

Add into the mix that one of the Hoosiers best players, Big 10 player of the year candidate D.J. White, is nursing a sprained/hyperextended knee and you have even more drama coming out of the Indiana camp. White is listed as doubtful, but the doctors have cleared him to play so I would expect him to play. But how well he will play is the bigger question.

Then you finish things off by adding the Big 10’s feel-good story of the year to the mix, the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue, not expect to be much of a threat this season due to its young lineup of freshmen and sophomores, have surprised everyone by sitting at the top of the conference standings at 12-1 (21-5 overall). The Boilermakers have answered challenge after challenge all year long, so why not one more big one, in their only meeting with their intrastate rivals this season, on the national stage on ESPN tonight?

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Most Las Vegas and online sportsbooks originally circled the game due to the injury status of Indiana’s White. BetCRIS.com is the only outlet that has released a spread so far, with the host Indiana Hoosiers as a 4.5-point favorite with a 131.5 total. Expect more books to put out a number as game time approaches.

Last time out the Hoosiers rallied around the fallen coach with one of their best offensive outputs of the season. After an ice-cold start, the Hoosiers went on to shoot 46.7 percent from the floor and 50 percent from 3-point land to destroy Michigan State, 80-61.

The problem is they did most of it without power forward White. White, the Big 10’s leading rebounder and second-leading scorer (behind fellow Hoosier Eric Gordon) will need to be back to give the Hoosiers the inside presence they will need to topple the red-hot Boilermakers. Gordon (28 points on 9-of-15 shooting vs. Michigan State) and fellow guards Jamarcus Ellis (12 pts.) and Jordan Crawford (12 pts.) all picked up the slack after White went down, but it will be a different challenge if White can’t go tonight.

You don’t win 11 games in a row, which is what Purdue has done, without a strong and efficient offense. Freshman forward Robbie Hummel (avg. 20.7 points in the last three games) gets a lot of the headlines, and with good reason, but it’s fellow freshman E’Twaun Moore that is the Boilermakers best offensive threat.

Moore drilled Northwestern for 28 points in the Boilers last game, and he leads a very balanced offense with 11.9 points per game. Moore and Hummel have fueled Purdue’s winning streak, both shooting lights out (Moore 58.1 percent, 8 straight games in double figures; Hummel 63.9 percent in last three overall).

Purdue will be trying to win at Assembly Hall for the first time since 1998-99. They have won six straight road games this season, but this one will have added pressure. If the Boilermakers can win it would put them in solid position to win the Big 10 title, as they would gain the tiebreaker advantage over both the Hoosiers and the Wisconsin Badgers, the two teams behind them in the standings.

Not only has the Boilermakers been a surprise in the win-loss column, the also sport an excellent 14-9 ATS record as well. Purdue has covered the spread in five straight, and 11 of the last 12 overall. They are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 on the road. But they haven’t been too good head-to-head versus the Hoosiers, going just 2-6 in the last eight games against the school down the road.

Indiana covered in their last game versus Michigan State (as 4-point favorites), and in three of their last four overall, but they are just 11-10-1 ATS on the season. The Hoosiers have been just 5-7-1 ATS on the Assembly Hall floor this season.

Badger’s Pick: I was completely wrong about the Hoosiers last time out, thinking that their young team would get caught up in the circus atmosphere surrounding Sampson. They proved to me in that game that they are more focused then I thought (and Dick Vitale harped about it about 50 times too). But the status of D.J. White takes this game off the board in my opinion. If you want a bet in this game, take the over of 131.5. Young legs (almost everyone on the floor will be Freshmen or sophomores) that don’t know enough to be nervous will rule this game. Go with the over in what should be a fun game to watch.

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