Drake Bulldogs vs. Northern Iowa Panthers Preview and Pick

Drake Bulldogs (22-2) -2.5, N/A O/U at Northern Iowa Panthers (3-6) +2.5, N/A O/U, McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, Iowa, 2 PM Eastern, Saturday
by Badger of Predictem.com

Now that their 21-game winning streak is history, how exactly will the 14th-ranked Drake Bulldogs respond when they face another tough test versus Missouri Valley Conference foe Northern Iowa in the McLeod Center on Saturday?

Drake lost for just the second time this season on Wednesday when Southern Illinois slipped past them, 65-62. Prior to the loss the Bulldogs dodged several close calls, including a three-point win at Illinois State last week, a one-point win at Bradley back on January 16th, and a narrow four-point victory over this same Northern Iowa team at home in Des Moines back on January 26th.

Northern Iowa is like most college basketball teams, solid at home but suspect on the road. But they haven’t been playing their best basketball lately. The Panthers needed a 3-pointer by senior Adam Viet at the buzzer on Wednesday to sneak past Wichita State, 77-75, in overtime. The thrilling win ended a mini two-game slid, with lopsided losses to Missouri State (71-54) and Creighton (74-50) on the road the week before.

Most offshore sportsbooks opened the game with Drake as a 2.5-point favorite. As of press time there is no total listed, but expect it to be around the 110 to 120 range.

Drake has gotten this far with an impressive balanced attack on offense (73.2 ppg), with Josh Young (16.0 ppg), Leonard Houston (14.3 ppg) and Jonathan Cox (11.8 ppg) all averaging in double digits in scoring. Senior point guard Adam Emmenecker is clearly the straw that stirs the drink though, as his leadership and all-around game (7.2 ppg, 4.4. rpg, 5.8 apg) is the key to the Bulldogs attack.

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Northern Iowa shot extremely well in their last game out, connecting on 10-of-19 from 3-point range (52.6 percent), but that is typical of the Panthers at home in the McLeod Center. The Panthers have averaged 68.5 points in their seven MVC home games, while just 54.8 points in their seven road games in the MVC.

Eric Coleman is the Panthers on offense. The senior center notched his 11th double-double of the season versus Wichita State with 14 points and 11 rebounds, and leads the team in every offensive category except blocks (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 56.4 FG%, 1.8 apg).

It sounds like a broken record, but defensively is where this game will be decided. Drake allows just 60.3 points per game (21st in NCAA) and makes opponents work for every point they can get. Northern Iowa is even better though, allowing just 59.9 points a contest (17th).

The key number to this game is 70. The Panthers have only allowed 70 points to be scored on them four times, and they’ve lost three of those games, so if Drake can get close to their scoring average it will most likely spell doom for Northern Iowa.

Drake has won three straight games in this matchup, including the earlier game this season. Prior to that the Panthers have owned the head-to-head series taking 10 out of 15. The Panthers covered the number in the game earlier this season too, as Drake was an 8.5-point favorite at home. Drake however sports a 5-2 ATS record in the last seven head-to-head.

Drake is also one of the best bets this season, with a 15-4-1 ATS record so far, a 7-2 ATS record in their last nine Saturday games, and a 7-2-1 ATS record on the road.

Northern Iowa on the other hand is just slightly above average at 12-10 ATS this season, and a disappointing 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games. After covering the spread in five straight games in January and early February, the Panthers have failed to cover in their last three games overall.

However, it is worth noting that Northern Iowa does seem to have a knack for knocking off ranked teams at home. The Panthers have won their last six games at home versus ranked teams including then-24th- ranked Bucknell in 2006, a then 15th-ranked Southern Illinois in 2004 (also snapped the Salukis 16-game win streak), and a then 10th-ranked Iowa in 1997.

Badger’s Pick: The charm is off the Bulldogs now, as their unreal run of 21 straight ended earlier this week. Don’t look now, but they will end up with their first losing streak of the season after this game. Northern Iowa has a knack for playing and winning at home, and this is by far the biggest game of the season for them. Take the home dog to bark. Take Northern Iowa and the points.

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