Washington State Cougars vs. Stanford Cardinal Preview and Pick

Washington State Cougars (22-6) +4.5, 118 O/U at Stanford Cardinal (23-4) -4.5, 118 O/U, Maples Pavilion, Stanford, Calif., 4 PM Eastern, Saturday
by Badger of Predictem.com

If the 8th-ranked Stanford Cardinal have any hopes of playing for the PAC 10 Conference title next week, first they’ll have to pass a huge test versus 22nd-ranked Washington State Saturday in the Maples Pavilion.

If the Cardinal can find a way to win Saturday, it would set up a showdown for the title against first-place UCLA next Wednesday. The Cougars will be looking to spoil that opportunity though, and revenge a 67-65 overtime loss to the Cardinal back on February 2nd in Pullman. The loss to the Cardinal was the Cougars fifth in the last six meetings in the series, and the Cougars haven’t won on the road in the series since the 2005 season.

Oddsmakers opened the PAC 10 showdown with Stanford as 4.5-point favorites, with an over/under total of 118. The early odds on the moneyline at most bookies have the Cardinal listed at -201 favorites, while the visiting Cougars are listed as +181 underdogs.

Both teams come into Saturday’s contest fresh off of a win on Thursday night, but the method of achieving those wins were extreme opposites.

Washington State shot 53 percent from the floor and destroyed the California Bears in their home gym, 70-49. The Cougars also turned up the intensity of their trademark stiff defense by holding the Bears to 36 percent shooting (11 % from 3-point range) and a season-low of 49 points, nearly 27 points below their season average.

Stanford on the other hand limps into the Saturday showdown, barely squeaking by the Washington Huskies at home, 82-79. The Cardinal came into the game as 11-point favorites, but never found the ability to put the Huskies away until a desperation half-court prayer fell short at the final buzzer.

On a good note, both teams are starting to find a little more balance on the offensive end.

Stanford’s main offensive weapon, 7-footer Brook Lopez, has finally been getting scoring help from his twin brother Robin, as well as guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson. All three scored in double figures last time out (Goods 16 pts.; Johnson 14 pts., 6 ass.; Robin Lopez 10 pts.) to go along with Brook Lopez’s strong game of 21 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Washington State’s main weapon, forward Kyle Weaver, also has been required to do less and less scoring for the Cougars lately. Weaver’s 17 points in the Cal win wasn’t even the high for the team, as Taylor Rochestie’s 18 points and 6 assists led the Cougars in both categories. The Cougars also got double figures from guard Derrick Low (15 pts.) and center Aron Baynes (10 pts., 8 reb., 4-of-4 shooting) in the victory over Cal.

While the Cougars will be coming off of one of their best defensive efforts of the season, the Cardinal will be looking to recapture their mojo on the defensive end. Stanford, still with the 10th best scoring average allowed per game at 59 points a contest, has struggled to stop teams from running it up on them. Over the last four games the Cardinal have allowed an uncharacteristically high 71.5 points per game, 12 points higher than their season average for those of you mathematically challenged.

Stanford still has one of the best rebounding margins in the country though, with a +10.0 per game average. That could turn out to be a huge factor in this game because the Cougars are not one of the best rebounding teams in the PAC 10.

If you’ve been a religious bettor on either of these teams, chances are you’re not betting anymore. Washington State is barely profitable with a 15-12 ATS record, while Stanford has struggled to cover spreads all season at 13-14 ATS.

Out of the two teams, most of the betting trends favor the Cougars. Not only are they 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, but they are also a strong 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Stanford has covered just one spread in their last five games and is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the Maples Pavilion floor. The only trend going in the Cardinals favor is the fact that the home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 head-to-head games in the series.

While Stanford’s sudden lack of defense has caused their last five games to come in over the total, the Cougars steady work on the defensive end of the floor has resulted in four straight unders cashing in at the window. The under bet has cashed in for 10 of the Cardinal’s 14 home games this season though.

Badger’s Pick: With a total of 118, oddsmakers are expecting this contest to be a strong display of two of the country’s better defensive teams. While I agree with that opinion, I think the total is set a little low. Take the over in this game and watch it slip over the number in the closing seconds.

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