Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Tennessee Volunteers Preview and Pick

Oklahoma State (22-11) +2, 157.5 O/U vs. Tennessee Volunteers (21-12) -2, 157.5 O/U, East Region Opening Round, UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio, Friday March 20, 12:25 PM EST, CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

Make sure to set your alarms and rise early on Friday as what could prove to be the most compelling game in the East Region of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will tip off early when the 8th-seeded Tennessee Volunteers from the SEC battle the 9th-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys of the Big 12 in the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

Both teams enter the NCAA tourney off of successful runs in their respective conference tournaments this past weekend, as both teams made it into the championship game before being beaten. The Cowboys upset their in-state rival Oklahoma Sooners in the semifinals of the Big 12 tourney, 71-70, before dropping the title game to Missouri, 67-59. While the Volunteers beat up on the state of Alabama in the SEC tourney, eliminating both the Crimson Tide (86-62) and Auburn (94-85) before dropping the title game to Mississippi State, 64-61.

Like most of the evenly matched 8/9-seed matchups in the tourney, oddsmakers expect a tight one as they opened the game with Tennessee as slim 2-point favorites on the neutral floor in Dayton. The number has moved up to Tennessee minus-3 at some offshore sportsbooks as the early money has been on the Volunteers. The over/under total opened at 156.5 and has moved up a modest point to the current total of 157.5 at most books.

Oklahoma State fans have to like their chances, as it seems the Cowboys are peaking at the right time. The Cowboys went on a solid six-game winning streak at the end of February, including a signature upset win over Texas 68-59, before losing to the Sooners in a tough 82-78 loss in the regular season finale in Norman. They redeemed that loss by turning the tables on the Sooners in the semifinals of the Big 12 tourney, then they gave Missouri a good game before fading in the final minutes of that 8-point loss.

The Cowboys offense finished ranked 6th in the country at 81.1 points per game, shooting 45.7 percent from the floor. They are a guard- heavy team with James Anderson (18.6 ppg), Byron Eaton (14.1), Terrel Harris (13.8) and Obi Muonelo (5.5 apg) leading the way, although forward Marshall Moses has stepped up his game in the Big 12 tourney. Oklahoma State’s main downfall is defense, as they allow 74.2 points per game (316th) and opponent’s shoot 44.3 percent from the floor.

Tennessee fans on the other hand have to wonder which team they will get in the opening round, as the Volunteers have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country this season. There’s no doubting the talent on the Vols roster, it seems to be a matter of emotion for head coach Bruce Pearl and his squad.

Will the team that pounded Vanderbilt by 19 points show up, or the team that lost to Ole Miss by 16 points just four nights later? Will it be the team that lost to Bama at home by 3 points to end the regular season, or the team that destroyed the same Bama team by 24 points in the opening round of the SEC tourney? The Vols have been so inconsistent that besides their 5-0 start at the beginning of the season, the longest win streak they have been able to put together is a modest three games.

Tennessee also features a potent offense, as they finished 18th in the country at 78.5 points per game (45.5 % from the floor). They like to play transition basketball, but they will pound the ball inside to forwards Tyler Smith (17.2 ppg) and Wayne Chism (13.8). Again, defense will be hard to find Friday as the Vols allow 72.4 points per game and opponents shoot 44 percent against them.

These two teams haven’t met in head-to-head action on the court since December of 2006, in a 79-77 game won by Tennessee on its home floor. They also played in 2005 in an 89-73 victory by Oklahoma State played on the Cowboys home floor. The Cowboys covered both games, one as a favorite (-3 at home) and one as an underdog (+4 in Knoxville). Both games went over the total.

They have had two common opponents this season, as both teams played Siena and Gonzaga, two teams that also made the NCAA tourney. Both teams beat Siena (Cowboys 77-68; Vols 78-64), while both also lost to Gonzaga (Cowboys 83-71; Vols 89-79).

Neither team helped bettors out much this season, as Oklahoma State was slightly better (14-12-1 ATS) than Tennessee (14-16-1 ATS) versus the number. Both teams played under the total a majority of the time as well, as Tennessee was 13-18 versus the total while Oklahoma State was 12-14 on over/under bets.

Badger’s Pick: I expect some tightness early on in this game, so it may be hard for both teams to score enough points to cover the 157.5 total. I like the under. I also like the guard-heavy Cowboys to be able to run with the Vols transition game, so I also like the Cowboys to cover here. Take the under of 157.5 and/or Oklahoma State plus 2 points.

Free Picks

Betting