Davidson Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks Preview and Pick

Davidson Wildcats (29-6), +9, O/U 144.5 vs. Kansas Jayhawks (34-3), -9, O/U 144.5, Ford Field, Detroit, Mich., 5:05 PM EST, Sunday March 30th
by Badger of Predictem.com

The Midwest Region’s final game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday will feature everyone’s remaining Cinderella story, the Davidson Wildcats, versus the No. 1-seeded Kansas Jayhawks in a battle for the fourth and final spot in the NCAA Tournament’s Final Four.

What’s not to like about the underdog Davidson Wildcats? At this stage of the tourney it is actually unfair to label the Wildcats a Cinderella story, since they are legitimately just one game away from a Final Four appearance.

Tenth-seeded Davidson and it’s baby-faced marksman Stephan Curry made Wisconsin their latest victim in the Sweet 16 round, blowing the doors off the Badgers in the second half in a 73-56 victory. Now that the Wildcats have sent Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin packing, is an encore versus the top-seeded Jayhawks the final act of a great basketball story?

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Kansas is writing their own Final Four story, and it’s a story of domination. The Jayhawks beat Villanova by 15 points in the Sweet 16 round, their closest game in the tourney to this point. In fact, you would have to go back to the semifinal round of the Big 12 Tournament to find the last time the Jayhawks were challenged, in a 77-71 victory over Texas A&M.

College Basketball Sportsbooks opened Sunday’s Elite Eight game with Kansas as 9.5-point favorites, with a total of 144.5. The early money on this game was on Davidson, so most bookies have dropped the line to -9. The moneyline lists Kansas at -525, while Davidson is listed at +410.

If Davidson’s super sophomore guard Curry hasn’t changed your mind about the Wildcats legit run at a Final Four, boy are you a tough critic. Curry’s 103 points through three tourney games ranks right up there with the all-time greats (Glen Robinson 109, Bo Kimble 101, Glen Rice 93), and he showed yet again against Wisconsin that you can try but you likely won’t stop him.

Davidson’s other guard, Jason Richards, is averaging a near double- double through three tourney games (15.3 ppg, 9.0 apg), and the rest of the Wildcats roster plays their respective roles perfectly.

By now it’s well documented that Kansas has a deep and talented team on offense, led by guards Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers. The Jayhawks can also go inside with forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, and they bring very capable players off the bench as well (forward Sasha Kaun and guard Sherron Collins). There really are no holes.

But it’s been the Kansas defense that has stolen the spotlight during the tourney. They held UNLV to 26.7 percent shooting in round two, then limited Villanova to 35 percent (just 17 % from 3-point land) and 57 points in the Sweet 16 round. Look for the Jayhawks to rotate all four of their guards on Curry, using all 20 of their fouls to push the slim offguard in and out of screens.

One thing is for sure, something is going to give in this game as far as betting is concerned, as both teams have treated faithful bettors to some big time profits.

Davidson is 22-11 ATS for the year, has covered all three games of the tourney (all three have gone over too), is 5-1 ATS in post-season play including the Southern League tourney, and is also 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games.

Kansas ended the year 21-14 ATS, has covered four straight and seven of their last nine games, all three in the tourney, and has been the lone No. 1 seed that has met most oddsmaker’s high expectations.

The other betting trend of note is the under. Kansas has come in under the total in all three tourney games and in seven of their last nine neutral-site games. Although Davidson has come in over the total in all three thus far, the under is 9-4-1 in the Wildcats last 14 games as the underdog.

There are no previous meetings between the two schools to give historical perspective either.

Badger’s Pick: Davidson has gotten this far by pushing the ball up the floor against primarily slow-down type of teams (Gtown and Wisky), but that approach won’t work versus the faster, deeper and more athletic Jayhawks. Davidson has yet to get blown out yet all season, so I’ll take them plus the points to cover one more time. The slipper may break, but the Cats will cover. Take Davidson plus the points.

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