Drake Bulldogs vs. Butler Bulldogs Preview

Drake Bulldogs (23-3), +6, 128 O/U at Butler Bulldogs (25-2), -6, 128 O/U, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Ind., 5 p.m. Eastern, Saturday
by Oracle of Predictem.com

Who will take the bigger bite when the battle of the Bulldogs takes place between the 18th ranked Drake Bulldogs and Horizon League leader Butler, who is ranked 8th in the nation, in a non-conference showdown on Saturday at Hinkle Fieldhouse?

Butler’s current 9-game winning streak is just a slice of what has been a sensational season, not having lost since January 17th at Cleveland State, a span of over a month. They are also impenetrable at home this year, winning all 13 games at Hinkle Fieldhouse, and its No. 8 ranking is the highest in school history. Butler gets a break from its Horizon League dominance (14-2 record) going against a Drake team that is coming off a last-second loss to Bradley on Wednesday, 72-71.

First year head coach Keno Davis and his scrappy Drake squad has already wrapped up the Missouri Valley Conference - its first MVC title since 1971 – with a 65-55 win against Northern Iowa last Saturday. However, after an extraordinary 21-game winning streak that lasted over a span of nearly three months, the Bulldogs have lost two out of their last three, albeit by an average of just 2 points.

Sportsbooks opened this game with Butler as a 5.5-point favorite, with a 128-point total.

It would seem as though Mike Green is the leader of the Butler Bulldogs with his 14.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5 assists per game. But point guard A.J. Graves is the floor leader and is known for hitting clutch shots down the stretch for his team, such as his recent go-ahead 3-pointer with under a minute to play in a big 51-46 win over Illinois-Chicago on Wednesday. In that same game, Green finished with just 3 points in 33 minutes, while Pete Campbell came up huge off the bench with 12 points, proving that Butler can win even when their leading scorer has an off night. Campbell is shooting a blistering 44% from beyond the arc while averaging 11 points per game. Butler has a fairly balanced attack with four players averaging in double figures, including Green, Graves (13.2), Campbell and underrated freshman Matt Howard (12.8).

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Meanwhile, Drake is nearly a mirror image of Butler, as they use several key players in their offensive arsenal. Although point guard Adam Emmenecker isn’t an offensive juggernaut (7.4 ppg), he is similar to Graves with his floor leadership. Emmenecker leads the team by averaging 6 assists, boasting a 2/1 assist to turnover ratio, and nearly 2 steals per game. Josh Young has been the main focus in Drake’s offense this season, and that hasn’t changed in recent weeks, averaging 18 points in his past seven games and 16 points per game on the year. Young tried to lead the Bulldogs to victory against Bradley on Wednesday, but his 23 points weren’t enough. Jonathan Cox is also a significant part to the Bulldogs. Cox scored 15 points in the loss to Bradley and averages 8.3 rebounds per game on the year as the team’s 6-foot 8-inch center. Also, Klayton Korver (9.4 ppg), the younger brother of the Utah Jazz forward Kyle Korver, puts up nearly 7 three-point shots a game, including going 3-for-12 from downtown in the loss to Bradley.

These two teams are not only similar on offense, but on the defensive side of the ball as well. Butler gives up just 58.5 points per game, which is 9th best in the nation. The past couple of games have backed up that statistic, giving up just 46 points to UIC and Cleveland State in a revenge game. They also hold opponents to just 33.5% shooting from beyond the arc. On the other hand, Drake is 24th in the nation in giving up 60.5 points per game. As of late, though, Drake’s defense hasn’t been very taut, giving up 67 points in their past 6 games.

Since these teams haven’t met on the court in over 35 years, with no real betting history, it’s not surprising that the line started with Butler favored by 6 points. Butler has been a mid-major power for years, while Drake is still considered by many to be having a surprise season in a weak MVC.

Drake has one huge advantage for bettors, though; with a 16-5-1 record ATS, which is third best in the country, including an 8-2-1 ATS record on the road. The over is 6-1 in the past seven games when Drake takes the floor as well.

Butler hasn’t been terrible to bettors this year with a 13-11-2 mark ATS, but it’s a very average mark. Butler’s offense can be inconsistent at times, therefore their over/under record isn’t surprisingly close at 12-14, including 6-5 at home. The Butler offense is hard to judge because they have averaged 51 points the past two games (Under), while averaging 86 points the two games before that (Over).

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