Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirds Preview and Pick

Drake Bulldogs (20-1) +2.5, 132 O/U at Illinois State Redbirds (16-6) -2.5, 132 O/U, Redbird Arena, Normal, Ill. 8 PM Eastern, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

If anyone is going to stop the Drake Bulldogs from running away with the Missouri Valley Conference title, it will have to be the Illinois State Redbirds. The top two teams in the MVC standings clash again tonight at Redbird Arena in Normal, Illinois.

Not only do the 15th-ranked Bulldogs hold a three-game lead in the MVC standings, but they also have a 19-game winning streak to defend. Drake hasn’t lost since their second game of the year (a 72-76 loss at St. Mary’s on Nov.10th), and are coming off of a 10-point win over Creighton at home and a strong six-point win over Indiana State (83-77) last Saturday for their seventh straight victory on the road.

The good news for Illinois State is that they are a perfect 11-0 at home in the Redbird Arena this season. The problem for the Redbirds though is that they aren’t exactly playing their best basketball right now. They’ve only won two of their last five games, and the two wins have been nail-biters by a combined four points, including a 64-63 win over Missouri State last Saturday.

The Bulldogs beat the Redbirds earlier this season, a 79-73 victory on January 19th at Drake. In that game the Bulldogs covered as a 4.5- point favorite, while the final score came in over the 128-point total.

Oddsmakers have opened tonight’s game with Illinois State as a slim 2.5-point favorite, with a 132-point total. The early moneyline at some of the offshore sportsbooks have Illinois State at -154, with Drake as a +139.

With the graduation of four seniors off last year’s team, the Bulldogs rely heavily on senior point guard Adam Emmenecker. Emmenecker played perhaps his best game of the season last time out versus Indiana State, with 20 points and eight assists. For the year he averages 5.7 assists per game (tops in MVC) and consistently gets Drake’s shooters (Josh Young, Jonathan Cox and Leonard Houston) great looks at the basket.

For the year the Bulldogs score 73.3 points per game on average, shoot 45.2 percent from the floor, and are strong from behind the 3- point arc (37.9 percent), including hitting for 10 3-ponters in their win over Indiana State last game.

Like most teams, Illinois State seems is very comfortable on their home floor. The Redbirds have been outscoring opponents at home by a 16.6 margin on way to their perfect 11-0 record, and they have beaten the Bulldogs four straight times at the Redbird Arena dating back to the 2004 season (and covered all four times as well).

Osiris Eldridge leads the Redbirds in scoring, at 15.2 points per game. Eldridge hit for 21 points last time these two teams met, as did forward Anthony Slack. Slack has been battling shoulder problems, but he did play well against Missouri State last game with 6 points and 12 rebounds.

The big key to Drake’s success has been it’s tenacious defense. The Bulldogs hold opponents to just 59.4 points per game (16th in NCAA) and have only allowed MVC opponents to reach the 70-point mark twice all season (61.2 ppg average in MVC).

Illinois State’s defense is also strong, allowing just percentage points higher 59.8 points per game (17th), so you’d expect tonight’s game to be a battle with less than impressive shooting percentages.

If you’ve been betting on Drake all season, then you’re rolling in money. The Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS so far, but two of the times they failed to cover were on the road (at Evansville, at Bradley). The Bulldogs have had their trouble against the Redbirds though, as they are just 2-6 ATS versus them in their last eight head-to-head meetings.

Illinois State is just 10-10 ATS this year, but as mentioned they are a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU versus Drake since 2004. They are also a strong team on Tuesdays, as they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played on Tuesday.

Badger’s Pick: This would be a great game to watch, except it’s not on national television. I’m drinking the Drake Kool-Aid, as they have turned me into a believer this season. Plus, they are just playing better basketball right now. Take Drake plus the points.

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