Final Four Picks

Final Four Picks
by Badger of Predictem.com

Now that the 2010 NCAA men’s basketball tournament is down to the Final Four teams, let’s take a look at Saturday’s semifinal matchups set to tip off at 3 pm EST in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with a few predictions on the championship game/futures.

Duke Blue Devils vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Point Spread: Duke -2.5
Over/Under Total: 131

Get the best betting odds for this game at 5Dimes.

The opening game on Saturday is going to feature a plethora of freakish length, speed, skill and shooting range when Duke takes on West Virginia. Both teams like to impose their will with on-ball pressure on defense, so which ever team is really able to win that battle will be worthy of a title chance.

It will also be interesting to watch who Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins decides to have Devin Ebanks guard, Duke’s top scorer Kyle Singler or their top scorer in the tourney so far, John Scheyer. Or does he put him on Nolan Smith, who led the Blue Devils with 29 points Sunday against Baylor.

Either way, the point is the Blue Devils certainly have enough options with their dribble-drive offense. The Mountaineers will have a week to prepare for it, so I expect Huggins and his staff to have something to counter utilizing the Mountaineers size and length on defense like a 1-3-1 zone. Likewise, I fully expect Duke to see exactly how well new point guard Joe Mazzulla handles the ball when West Virginia has the rock with waves of pressure and different looks.

Bottom line is this game will come down to perimeter scoring, and in a shooting contest, I guess I have to side with Duke as much as it pains me. Duke also shoots 76 percent as a team from the free-throw line (W.Va. – 70.3%), so they get the edge at closing time too.

Badger's Pick: Take Duke minus -2.5 in a game that will go over the 131 total.

Best Props: Double Result - West Virginia-Duke (+400 at BetUS) If you’re a believer that Duke wins in the end, but starts out cold shooting in the first half and needs to come back in the second half, I’d say that 4-to-1 on your money isn’t a bad wager.

Butler Bulldogs vs. Michigan State Spartans
Point Spread: Butler -1
Over/Under Total: 126

With wins over UTEP, Murray State, Syracuse and Kansas State you can put to rest any talk of Butler being Cinderella at the Final Four, because their resume speaks for itself. If any team is suspect in this matchup it could be the Spartans, who have been sparked by the sudden star-like play of Durrell Summers and Korie Lucious.

There’s no doubt about it, this game will be a street fight. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo will have his boys ready to brawl in the paint for rebounds, and the Bulldogs ability to withstand the banging and stay out of foul trouble will be key. Izzo might go right at Butler’s Gordon Hayward and try and get him in trouble early.

Otherwise, it is actually Butler that plays more impressive on-ball defense and both Summers and Lucious are streaky when their shots are contested, something the Bulldogs do exceptionally well. Butler will have to hit their perimeter shots early to make Michigan State play from behind, negating some of their inside strength.

Michigan State has somehow found a way to win each game, and they’ll continue to find a way to win this game too. Take Michigan State and the point.

Best Props: Michigan State (+450 to win 2010 Championship at Sportsbook.com)

If you follow the script that Izzo and Michigan State find a way to win, then a small wager on the Sparty as the true underdogs of the Final Four is a worthy long shot bet.

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