Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Diego Toreros Preview and Pick

Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-6) -7, 127.5 O/U vs. San Diego Toreros (20-13) +7, 127.5 O/U, Jenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, Calif., 9 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com

The San Diego Toreros are sure taking advantage of their opportunities.

Playing on their home floor in the Jenny Craig Pavilion, the Toreros needed every ounce of home-court advantage yesterday to reach the West Coast Conference title game Monday night on ESPN. Waiting for them is the perennial WCC favorite, the 22nd-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs.

San Diego used a 20-14 run in the second overtime to finally dispose of St. Mary’s, 75-69, Sunday night in their semifinal game. It capped off a furious comeback for the home team Toreros, as they closed a 13- point deficit in the final seven minutes of regulation to get into overtime in the first place.

Meanwhile, Gonzaga struggled mightily in their semifinal earlier in the night. The Zags only made five shots from the floor in the second half, but nailed 13-of-16 free throws to finally pull away from Santa Clara, 52-48. The Bulldogs will be trying to win their fifth straight WCC tournament title in their 11th straight appearance in the title game.

Incidentally, this will be the last season the WCC tournament will be played on one school’s home court. The WCC will be moving their season-ending tourney to a neutral site starting next season, giving the Toreros even more incentive to try and keep their streak of good luck alive.

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Online Sports Books opened the game with Gonzaga as 7-point favorites, despite the game being played on the Toreros home floor. The over/under total opened at 127.5. The few offshore sportsbooks that have listed the early moneyline odds have Gonzaga pegged at -330, while San Diego is listed at +280.

Gonzaga slipped past Santa Clara even though guard Jeremy Pargo struggled throughout the game. Pargo, the WCC player of the year, scored only four points and gave up four of the Bulldogs 17 turnovers.

It was Gonzaga’s depth that propelled the Zags into the final. Forward Josh Heytvelt came of the bench to score a game-high 15 points, and fellow reserves Austin Daye and Micah Downs each added eight points as the Zags bench outscored the Broncos bench 34-0.

San Diego guard Brandon Johnson scored a career-high 28 points, including six crucial points in the second OT, to put the Toreros into the title game tonight. Forward Gyno Pomare, who added 22 points and 12 rebounds in the game, scored on a tip in with 55 seconds left in the second OT to give San Diego just it’s second lead of the game (their first lead didn’t come until the first OT).

Gonzaga has owned the head-to-head matchup with San Diego, winning the last 10 games SU while going just 5-5 ATS. The Zags won both meetings with the Toreros this season, including a 59-55 victory on the same Jenny Craig Pavilion floor on Feb. 18th, but the Toreros covered the spread in both meetings.

San Diego sports a strong moneymaking 20-9 ATS record this year, and is on an 8-1 ATS run in their last nine WCC games.

But Gonzaga is also peaking at the right time, as they are 6-1 ATS in their last eight WCC games after finishing just 17-14 ATS for the year.

Both teams have strong defenses, so thus they tend to end more games under the total than over. The under cashes in especially on Mondays. The under is 7-2-1 in San Diego’s last 10 games played on the first day of the week, while Gonzaga has come in under the total in eight of the last 10 games on Monday.

Badger’s Pick: San Diego has been a covering machine, and the fact they are playing on their home floor is huge. But I don’t expect the Zags to struggle again tonight. They played one of the worst games of the year on Sunday and still found a way to beat Santa Clara. San Diego had to play two extra overtimes too. Gonzaga hits free throws down the stretch as the Toreros run out of gas to make this game a backdoor cover. Take Gonzaga minus the points.

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