Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns Preview and Pick

Kansas Jayhawks (23-1) -4.5, 147 O/U at Texas Longhorns 19-4) +4.5, 147 O/U, Frank Erwin Center, Austin, Texas, 9 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com

It’s not often that college basketball fans get to start off the week with a great game, but that’s exactly what happens Monday night when the No. 4-ranked Kansas Jayhawks travel to take on the No. 12-ranked Texas Longhorns in a crucial Big 12 Conference showdown on ESPN.

These two teams have played some classics lately, including an 88-84 overtime thriller won by Kansas in the Big 12 Conference title game last March. Monday’s game stands to be another big one in the series, as this will be the ninth straight meeting that both teams have been ranked in the AP’s top-25 and the two sit at the top of the Big 12 standings (Kansas has 1.5-game lead).

Both teams will also be looking to win their fourth straight game after each survived a scare over the weekend. Kansas was held without a 3-pointer for the first time in 271 games, but they still managed to score 64 points after the break to pull away from Baylor on Saturday, 100-90. Texas meanwhile needed an overtime session to finally dispose of Iowa State on Saturday, 71-65.

Online Bookies opened the big game with Kansas as 4.5-point favorites, with a total of 147. The early look at the moneyline has Kansas at -198, with Texas at +178.

What really needs to be said about a Kansas offense that can go 0-for-9 from 3-point range and still put up 100 points. The Jayhawks got huge games from Darrell Arthur (23 points, 10 rebounds) and Mario Chalmers (10 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 steals) in the win over Baylor, but the reality is that Kansas can score from anywhere on the floor with just about anyone in their lineup.

Texas relies heavily on one of the best guard tandems in the country for their offense. Point guard D.J. Augustin and off-guard A.J. Abrams are 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in scoring, and they carry the offensive load as their combined 42 points in the Iowa State game indicates.

Although they are prone to bad shooting games (shot only 35.7 percent from the floor vs. Iowa State; Augustin was 5-of-22; shot 34 percent in an earlier loss to Texas A&M), Texas does have a way of finding Abrams or Augustin for a clutch basket in crunch time.

The defensive end of the floor is where this game is going to be won or lost. Kansas has a slightly better points allowed average overall (61.5 ppg to Texas’ 65.4), but those numbers are reversed when you look at their home/away splits. Kansas allows 64.6 points on the road, while Texas turns up the pressure on the Frank Erwin Center floor by allowing just 60.2 points per game.

Texas will need to get big games from their inside players, namely Connor Atchley, Damion James and freshman Gary Johnson. Atchley had four blocks versus Iowa State and gives them a presence on defense, James is their offensive threat and glass cleaner in the post (8 pts., 14 reb. vs. Iowa State), and Johnson is coming back from injury and is the players off the bench that gives both Atchley and James a rest from time-to-time.

Kansas has beaten the Longhorns in three straight games, but Texas has defended its home floor well by winning the last two played in Austin, including the Jayhawks worst loss in five seasons under coach Bill Self, a 80-55 thumping back in 2006.

Even though the Jayhawks have owned the series of late, bettors will note that the Longhorns are a strong 6-2 ATS in the last eight games head-to-head. The game has gone over the total in eight of the last 10 head-to-head games in the series as well.

It’s hard to get a good read on some of the other recent betting trends. Kansas is a strong 14-8 ATS for the season, but they are just 1-3 ATS in the last four and 5-4 ATS since Big 12 play began. Texas is a meager 9-8 ATS on the season overall, and they have struggled in Big 12 play with a 3-4 ATS record in conference games.

The point spread has already dropped to Kansas by 4 points at some of the offshore sportsbooks. The early money is banking on the Longhorns strong home court record, recent success at covering the number in this series, and maybe the fact that Texas is 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday night games.

Badger’s Pick: This is going to be a great game to watch, so enjoy it tonight. Both teams are strong on defense, but there are just too many athletes and scorers on the floor in this game to keep it under the total, so take the over of 147. If you can find it listed lower anywhere, giddy up. If you need to bet a side, I would suggest taking the Jayhawks. I know Texas is at home, and they have covered the number well in the series lately, but the Jayhawks are loaded and still the better team. So take Kansas plus the points.

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