Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers Preview and Pick

NCAA Basketball – Michigan State Spartans (20-6, 9-16 ATS) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (9-15, 10-13 ATS), Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Tuesday, Feb. 16th, 7 PM Eastern, ESPN
By Z-Man of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Spartans -10 1/2/Hoosiers +10 1/2
Over/under: 139 1/2

Not too long ago the Michigan State Spartans looked like they were going to breeze to the Big 10 regular-season title. Now they're just trying to keep pace with streaking Ohio State, as they hit the road to take on the slumping Indiana Hoosiers in big 10 action Tuesday night.

Most online sportsbooks opened this game with Michigan State favored by 10½ points, with a total of 139 ½, and those numbers have held steady in early betting action.

The Spartans are also listed at around -650 on various college basketball betting moneylines, with Indiana getting upwards of +475 to win outright.

Michigan State, the pre-season favorites to win the Big 10 this season, went 10-3 through their non-conference slate, which included a win over Gonzaga and losses to Florida, North Carolina and Texas. Sparty then began his Big 10 slate by winning his first nine games. But they had at least a couple of close calls along the way. Then, in the second half of a bad loss at Wisconsin, G Kalin Lucas went down with a sprained ankle. MSU then lost at Illinois and, even with Lucas back, at home to Purdue. The Spartans then broke their three-game losing streak Saturday when they pulled away from Penn State in the second half for a 65-54 victory.

For this young Hoosiers team, not much was expected this season, their second under Coach Crean. And they've about lived up to those lowly expectations. IU went 6-6 through its non-con schedule, with an upset win over Pittsburgh and losses to Boston U and Loyola-Maryland. The Hoosiers then won their Big 10 opener over Michigan, but have tasted victory just once since. They lost close games at Illinois and at home to Purdue, but they extended their current losing streak from five to six Saturday when they got blown out at Wisconsin 83-55.

As of late Indiana has been starting a pair of freshman and a couple of sophomores, and are not only one of the youngest teams in the conference, they're also one of the smallest.

So at 10-3 in conference play Sparty sits tied atop the Big 10 with the Buckeyes, while at 3-9 the Hoosiers reside in ninth place.

So far this season MSU is shooting 48% from the floor as a team, 34% from 3-point range and 69% from the free-throw line. On the other end of the court the Spartans are holding opponents to 41% FG shooting, and they're outrebounding foes by 9.5 per game, second-best in the country.

Indiana is shooting 42% from the field this season, 35% from long range at 67% from the line. Defensively the Hoosiers are allowing foes to shoot 43% from the floor, and they're getting outrebounded by about a half a board per game.

The Spartans may be a Final Four contender, but they have not been one of the better teams around to put your money on, covering just nine of 25 pointspreads this season. MSU is also 5-1 straight up and 3-3 ATS as road favorites this season, but they're just 4-9 ATS as double-digit chalk.

Indiana is 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS as a home dog this season, and 4-5 vs. the numbers as a double-digit dog.

MSU swept two games from IU last season, by scores of 75-47 and 64-59. The first game went under its posted total of 135, and the second game stayed under its total of 132.

Spartans games have averaged 139 points this season, and they've gone 11-13 on the totals. Hoosiers games have averaged 138 points, and they've gone 11-9 on the over/unders.

Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rate the Spartans at 13 better than the Hoosiers. So factoring in Sagarin's updated CBB home-court advantage figure of 3.9, Michigan State is a nine-point favorite over Indiana for Tuesday's game on the Sagarin line.

Zman's Pick: This game really doesn't offer much value. If forced to make a selection here, I'd take the Hooisers and the points to cover the point spread.

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