Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview and Pick

Pittsburgh Panthers (19-6) +4, 145 O/U at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (19-5) -4, 145 O/U, Joyce Center, South Bend, Indiana, 7 PM Eastern, Thursday
by Badger of Predictem.com

Two Big East Conference teams going in opposite directions clash Thursday night on ESPN when the falling Pittsburgh Panthers travel to the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind., to take on the 21st-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Pittsburgh, a top-10 team at the start of the season, has struggled so bad of late they actually fell out of the top-25 rankings all together last week after an embarrassing 72-54 loss at Marquette last Friday. The Panthers are now 4-4 through their last eight games, this after starting the season with a 15-2 record.

Notre Dame started the season in the shadows of the Big East giants, but a string of six wins out of their last seven games has moved the Irish into the top-25 the past few weeks. After winning five games in a row staring in late January, the Irish split their two games last week, losing a nail-biter to Connecticut 84-78 on Wednesday before sneaking past Rutgers on the road Saturday, 71-68.

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Notre Dame will also be looking to add to the current 34-game winning streak on the Joyce Center floor. Ironically, the Panthers are the one team that has given the Irish fits of late, beating the Irish in five straight games (but not since 2006) including two of those games at the Joyce Center.

The oddsmaker opened the game with Notre Dame as 4-point favorites, with a 145-point total. The moneyline at most offshore sportsbooks will vary, but it currently has the Irish at -200 with Pittsburgh listed at +170.

It’s no secret what the Irish want to do with the ball on offense, get it into the hands of forward Luke Harangody. Harangody leads the Big East with a 20.4 points per game average and is second in rebounding with a 10.3 per game average. He has been averaging 26.2 points and 13 rebounds during Notre Dame’s run up the rankings (last six games), but he struggled with his shooting in the Rutgers game hitting on just 5-of-16 shots.

Luckily for Harangody, he is not the only scoring option for the Irish lately. Point guard Tory Jackson had a near triple-double versus Rutgers (17 points, 10 assists, 8 rebounds) and is averaging 14.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg and 7.3 apg in his last three games overall. The Irish also lead the Big East in scoring (80.3 ppg), thanks in large part to their stellar 40.5 percent shooting accuracy from 3-point range.

Pittsburgh just flat-out looked tired in their last game versus Marquette. Their shooting was flat (just 37.3 percent from the floor; an atrocious 9.1 3-PT%), they were out-rebounded and the rarely won any of the 50-50 matchups for loose balls. That is just simply not the way Pittsburgh plays basketball, period.

The Panthers will likely be ready for the Irish tonight though. Guard Levance Fields returned in the Marquette game (only 4 points in 20 minutes), so he will be back to take some of the scoring pressure off of forward Sam Young (17.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg). Fields’ return will move Ronald Ramon back to shooting guard for some of the game too, so Ramon will likely increase his 8.0 ppg output down the stretch.

Defensively Pittsburgh has the edge on the Irish. The Panthers play a more physical brand of basketball and it shows on the scoreboard usually (Pitt allows 62.7 ppg; ND allows 68.5 ppg). Although those numbers do tend to even out when you look at the home/away splits for both teams (Pitt allows 67 ppg on the road; ND allows 66.4 ppg at home).

Despite beating the Irish in five straight head-to-head matchups, the Irish have actually covered the spread in three of those five games including the last time out as 9-point dogs (a 100-97 win by Pitt in double OT).

But neither team comes into tonight’s contest on anyone’s betting radar. Notre Dame has failed to cover in three straight games and has covered just once in their last six overall (9-12 ATS on the year). Pittsburgh meanwhile has covered just once in their last four games and is just 2-4 ATS in their last six despite holding a respectful 12-8 ATS record for the season.

The over/under betting trends are opposites as well. Notre Dame has gone over the total in nine of their last 10 games overall, and in 13 of their last 16 Big East games. While Pittsburgh comes in under the total in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Although, the last three head-to-head meeting between these two have come in over the total (all three around the 130-mark).

Badger’s Pick: If Pittsburgh is going to have any chance in this game, they are going to need to keep this a low scoring game. I think the Panthers can do it, as they will be determined to save face from the egg they laid last time out versus Marquette. Therefore, the best bet in this game is the under of 145. Look for it to be a typical Big East battle royale in the paint, so take the under in this game.

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