Pittsburgh Panthers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Preview and Pick

Pittsburgh Panthers (21-8) +5, 135 O/U at West Virginia Mountaineers (20-9) -5, 135 O/U, WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, W.Va., 7 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com

The basketball version doesn’t carry quite the same amount of passion as their rivalry on the football field, but when the Pittsburgh Panthers travel to WVU Coliseum Monday for a Big East Conference showdown versus their longtime rival West Virginia Mountaineers you can bet all eyes in West Virginia and Pennsylvania will be watching.

ESPN will make it easy for them to watch too, as the game will be part of their “Big Monday” coverage to start the week.

The basketball rivalry was turned up a few notches last time these two teams met back on February 7th. Not only were Pittsburgh fans proudly sporting signs that read “13-9” (in reference to the Panthers stunning 13-9 upset of West Virginia in football, essentially knocking the Mountaineers out of the BCS title game), but the game ended with a Ronald Ramon 3-pointer as time expired to give Pittsburgh a heart-stopping 55-54 victory.

Both teams are also coming off of vastly different outcomes in their last Big East tussle.

West Virginia, still considered by some to be an NCAA tournament bubble team despite 20 wins, fought hard but ended up on the disappointing end of a 79-71 score at Connecticut Saturday. On a good note, the Mountaineers did close a 17-point deficit down to three in the UConn game, but they still ended up on the short end.

Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off a huge, moral-building 82-77 victory over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. The Panthers closed an 11- point deficit in the second half and took the lead in the closing seconds to steal one away from the Orange. The win was just the Panthers third victory on the road in Big East play, and was their second straight win overall all after falling into a three game losing streak in the middle of February.

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Most offshore sportsbooks opened the game with West Virginia as 5- point favorites, with a 135 total. Although some of the early lines at Las Vegas sportsbooks have it listed at a more modest 4.5-point spread, with a 132 total. The early numbers on the moneyline have the Mountaineers listed at -222, with Pittsburgh listed at +196.

Pittsburgh is led by junior forward Sam Young, who is playing himself into a player of the year candidate in the Big East. Young scored in double figures for the 28th time (29 games) in the Syracuse game when he finished with 19 points, five rebounds and three steals.

Pittsburgh guard Levance Fields missed the first game between the two schools with a bad foot, but he has since returned and is finally starting to return to form. Fields scored 13 points (on just 2-of-9 shooting though) and added five assists in the victory over the Orange.

West Virginia forward Joe Alexander is starting to assert himself as the Mountaineers go-to guy in the clutch. The junior scored a career-high 32 points and added 10 rebounds in the Connecticut game, running his season averages up to 15.1 points per game and 6.0 rebounds per contest.

Alexander is helped out on the offensive end by Alex Ruoff (14 ppg), Da’Sean Butler (12.3 ppg) and Darris Nichols (11.1 ppg), who all average double figures in scoring. Nichols, who scored a game-high 16 points in the first meeting of these two schools, will be looking to go out with a bang as the senior will be one of two players honored before the game on the Mountaineers senior night festivities (along with Jamie Smalligan).

Both teams are barely above average for sports bettors this year, as West Virginia’s 12-10-1 ATS record is only slightly better than Pittsburgh’s 13-11 ATS record.

The historical betting trends favor the Panthers in this matchup, as Pitt is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings. The Panthers also have a history of playing well on Monday night, as they sport a 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 Monday night games. But those numbers are a bit deceiving, as the Panthers failed to cover as 3- point favorites in the first game this season and have only covered the number in two of their last eight games overall.

West Virginia meanwhile is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games, and a strong 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games held in the WVU Coliseum.

The under is a strong play here too, as five of the last six head-to- head matchups have come in under the total, including the first game with a 131.5 closing number. Pittsburgh also plays a rough-n-tough brand of basketball on the road, as the under is 16-7 in their last 23 games away from home.

Badger’s Pick: Even though I think the total of 135 is on the cusp of being too low, I still like the under play in this game. If West Virginia is going to have a chance, they are going to have to clamp down on Pittsburgh because the Panthers have more depth and better overall talent. The same could be said for Pitt, as they will need their typical defensive effort to stay in the game in front of a hostile crowd. Take the under of 135 in this game.

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