UNLV Runnin Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos Preview and Pick

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (22-6) +6, 132 O/U at New Mexico Lobos (22-7) -6, 132 O/U, The Pit (Bob King Court), Albuquerque, N.M., 9 PM Eastern, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

Two teams that have both won 22 games already this season, but have slipped under the national media and top-25 radar for the most part meet in a key Mountain West Conference showdown when UNLV travels to “The Pit” to take on New Mexico Tuesday night.

New Mexico will be trying to hold onto their No. 3 seeding for the MWC tournament next week, while the No. 2 seed Runnin’ Rebels will be trying to keep the strangle hold they have on the Lobos (won four straight and 12 of the last 15 games). Not only will the Lobos be trying to end a disturbing trend of losing to the Rebels, but they will be looking for revenge too.

Back on Feb. 2 in Las Vegas, UNLV handed New Mexico its worst loss of the season in a thorough 79-60 defeat. In that game the Lobos committed 16 turnovers in the first half (22 total) as the Rebels opened the game with a 21-5 run and never looked back.

The Lobos also have a bad taste left in their mouths from last year’s game in The Pit. In that game the Lobos looked like they had a potential game-winning 3-pointer by Chad Toppert all lined up, but Rebels guard Kevin Kruger swooped in and blocked the shot into the seats with just 0.5 seconds remaining. The ensuing touch-n-shoot try by the Lobos failed as well, allowing UNLV to escape town with an 85-83 win on the road.

Oddsmaker opened the game with New Mexico as 6-point favorites with a total of 132. The moneyline at most offshore sportsbooks has the Lobos as favorites at -260, with the Rebels listed at +220.

It’s not much of a surprise that New Mexico is a stronger team when playing in The Pit. The Lobos are 15-2 at home this year (by an average margin of 20.6 points), with the only blemishes being a 72-67 loss to San Diego State (on Jan. 12th), and a 70-69 loss in overtime to BYU the last time they played (Feb. 26th).

New Mexico’s success tonight will hinge greatly on the play of senior guard J. R. Giddens. Giddens is the only player in the MWC who ranks in the top-10 in the MWC in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, assists, steals and blocks … he does it all for the Lobos. The Lobos rely on him so much that they are 10-0 when Giddens and junior Chad Toppert - the team's two leading scorers - each reach double figures in scoring, but 12-7 when they don't.

New Mexico is still very capable with or without Giddens and Toppert on their A-games because the Lobos remain 1st in the nation in 3- point accuracy at 42.6 percent. For the season the Lobos lead the MWC in scoring offense (74.8 ppg), scoring margin (+12.0), 3-point FG’s per game (8.4) and 3-point percentage (42.6%).

UNLV relies on it own top two scorers, Wink Adams and Joe Darger, to keep the Rebels offense on the board. Adams had a game-high 24 points and Darger added 17 points for the Rebels in the first game this year. Guard Rene Rougeau is also a strong contributor to a team that averages 70.4 points per game, as Rougeau leads the team in rebounds (5.5), steals (2.3) and blocks (1.0) per game, and he did a great job of helping to hold Giddens to just 13 points in the game in Las Vegas.

Not only will Rougeau’s defense of Giddens be important to the outcome tonight, but so will the defense of the Lobos. New Mexico is 19-0 this season when holding opponents to less than 70 points, and they’ve only done that once to the Rebels in their last four attempts in the head-to-head matchup.

The Lobos may be under the radar as far as national publicity goes, except if you are a smart bettor. Most sharp players already know that New Mexico is the nation’s top ATS team, covering at a cash machine spitting 20-7-1 ATS mark so far this season. The Lobos are also 19-7 versus the total, making them one of the best teams to bet the over on as well.

The Rebels, playing in the heart of the nation’s betting action, are a solid 15-9-1 ATS, including three straight covers in a row (following a 4-game streak of failing to cover). UNLV is also a good team on Tuesday’s, as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on Tuesday.

It is interesting to note that UNLV covered as 5.5-point favorites earlier this year, but that was the first time in the last five games head-to-head that the Rebels have covered. The underdog in this series seems to have the luck going for them, as the dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups.

Badger’s Pick: I’m a bit stumped by the low 132 total in this game, it’s screams to me “trap game.” If both teams just hit their average (and 29 games into the year their averages are no longer small samples), it goes over easily. So what I would normally recommend as a bet on the over and the Lobos two-bet game, is now asterisked as a bet the over at your own discretion. Either way, take the Lobos to cover, again, minus the points.

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