Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers Preview and Pick

Sampson and Indiana were informed on Wednesday that the basketball program faces what the NCAA terms “major” violations. The news clearly took its toll quickly, as the Hoosiers went out and slept walked through the first half of what turned out to be a 68-66 loss to Wisconsin. The loss ended a mini three-game winning streak for the Hoosiers and cast doubt as to what will happen the rest of the season for the storied program in the basketball-crazy state.

Meanwhile a day earlier the Spartans were upset by the Big 10’s surprise team this season, Purdue, by a score of 60-54. It was the second straight road loss for Michigan State, who dropped an even more surprising 85-76 loss at Penn State last week as 9-point favorites.

Despite the turmoil, most offshore sportsbooks opened the game with Indiana as 4-point favorites, with a 135-point total. The Hoosiers are also a strong favorite on the moneyline at most books, listed at -180 with Michigan State as a +162.

With the firing of Sampson and potential NCAA tournament sanctions looming in the future, it’s now more than certain that Indiana’s super freshman Eric Gordon will leave at season’s end for the NBA. Gordon (21.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg) is the outside portion of the Hoosiers outstanding inside-outside offensive tandem, with forward D.J. White (17.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg) being the inside portion.

Last time out versus Wisconsin, Gordon and White combined for 40 of the Hoosiers 66 points (Gordon 2, White 17). Although Gordon did have some problems with accuracy, going 7-for-17 from the floor in the loss.

Michigan State will need senior guard Drew Neitzel to play up to his expectations on offense if the Spartans are going to win at Assembly Hall. Neitzel, who averages 13.7 points and 4.5 assists per game, scored just six points in the loss at Purdue and six in the loss at Penn State as well.

Luckily for Neitzel the Spartans are loaded with quality depth, as Kalin Lucas (20 points vs. Purdue) and Raymar Morgan (12 points vs. Purdue; 15.7 ppg on season) are more than capable of scoring in bunches off the drive and on open looks at the hoop.

Defensively these two are very similar. Both allow around 60 points per game (Michigan State 62.3, Indiana 62.7) with similar defensive shooting percentages as well (both around 40 % from floor, 33 % from 3-pt). If this becomes a typical Big 10 game full of defense and fouls, it would tend to favor the Spartans as they have more depth on the bench.

The last two years each team has defended its home floor well, as they have split the season series winning in their home gym each time out. Though the Spartans haven’t won or covered at Assembly Hall for five years, Indiana hasn’t done it at Michigan State either. In other words, the home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head meetings.

And neither team is exactly making sports bettors rich this season anyway. Indiana is 10-10-1 ATS so far this season, while Michigan State is only 8-10-2 ATS in 2007-08. Their respective recent histories are bad too, as Michigan State has failed to cover in three straight and four of their last five overall, while Indiana has only covered twice in their last six games overall.

Betting the over/under on these teams is also a money drain, as the Spartans are just 10-10 versus the total while Indiana is 10-11.

Badger’s Pick: This one is going to be worth watching just to see how the home crowd at Assembly Hall treats Coach Sampson. There were several boos from the crowd in Wednesday’s game versus Wisconsin, and now that more details have emerged, I can only expect more for him this time around. If Indiana was a veteran team, I say it wouldn’t make much difference … but they’re not. They are basically freshmen and sophomores, who will likely have a hard time dealing with the circus. I hate to kick a team when they are down, but I have to here. Take Michigan State plus the points. It might even be worth a moneyline bet on the Spartans as well (at +162).