Maryland Terrapins vs. Duke Blue Devils Preview and Pick

Maryland Terrapins (16-8) +12, 157 O/U at Duke Blue Devils (21-1) -12, 157 O/U, Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, N.C. 7 PM Eastern, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

If the No. 2-ranked Duke Blue Devils still have anything left to prove to the naysayers this season, how they perform on Wednesday night when they host the Maryland Terrapins in a key ACC challenge could be the statement game to finally make them go away.

Duke, who is just a one-point overtime loss versus Pittsburgh away from being perfect this season, will be looking for their 12th straight victory on Wednesday. One of those 11 wins came against this same Maryland team, a 93-84 decision played in College Park back on January 27th. The Blue Devils solidified their hold on the No. 2 ranking this past week with a 89-78 victory over rival North Carolina, then followed it up with a 90-80 victory over Boston College.

Maryland hasn’t lost since their earlier game versus Duke either, running off four straight victories including an impressive 84-70 thumping of North Carolina State on Saturday. Maryland is fully capable of springing the upset too. Not only did they do it to North Carolina earlier this season, but the Terrapins have beaten Duke in two of their last three visits to Cameron Indoor Stadium including last year’s 85-77 upset over the then 14th-ranked Blue Devils.

Online Bookies opened the game with Duke as large 12-point favorites and with a 157 total.

Duke continues to thrive on it’s wide-open, drive-n-dish scheme on offense that creates layups or wide open 3-point shots. With a plethora of shooting guards on the floor that are all capable of driving off the dribble, or hitting the open look, its no secret why the Blue Devils average 86 points per game and have been beaten their ACC opponents by an average of 14.4 points a game.

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Senior guard DeMarcus Nelson has raised his game in the last seven contests, averaging 19.4 points per game on lights-out shooting (54.8 FG%). But he’s not alone, as freshman forward Kyle Singler (17.8 ppg in last 4 games) and senior Greg Paulus (16 ppg in last 4 games) have also stepped it up of late.

Maryland’s offense is led by an inside-outside combo of forward James Gist and guard Greivis Vasquez. Gist has been averaging 22 points and nearly 9 rebounds a game in his last six contests, and finished with a career-high 30 points in the victory over N.C. State last Saturday. Vasquez is the Terps best all-around threat, as he averages 16.9 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds a game in ACC play and he put it all on display last time out with a 13-point, 15-dimes, 9-rebound afternoon versus the Wolfpack.

The big question is whether Duke can stop the inside game of Bambale Osby. Osby burned Duke for 20 points and 15 boards in their earlier matchup, and should provide Maryland with the inside game again that the Blue Devils have struggled to stop all season long.

Defensively these two teams are very similar. Duke’s season average of points allowed per game (67.1) is only a fraction better than the Terps average (67.8). But the home/road splits show a wider difference, as Maryland allows 74 points per game on the road, while Duke feeds of the “Cameron Crazies” and clamps down to allow just 66 points per game at home.

Maryland does do an excellent job of getting hands up and challenging shots though, as they are 12th in the country in field goal percentage defense with a 38.4 average and 36th in 3-point percentage defense at 31.5.

Dating back to 2005, one of these teams has swept the season series each of the past three years. Duke won both games in ’06, while Maryland won both games in ’05 and last season. Of course, Duke won this year’s earlier game, so take that for what it’s worth. Maryland has just a slight 4-3 ATS record in all of the games in the head-to- head series over that time frame.

The Terrapins are 9-10 ATS on the season, but they have covered the spread in all four games since the loss to Duke in January, and are 6-3 ATS in ACC play.

Duke is a strong money making 13-7-1 ATS on the season, 7-1-1 ATS in the ACC, and 8-2-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor this year. The Blue Devils were on a six-game covering streak until they pushed as 15-point favorites versus Miami on Feb. 2nd, then failed to cover as 18-point favorites versus B.C. last time out.

Badger’s Pick: After watching Duke handle the Tar Heels last week, most bettors are probably thinking that they are the team to beat. But that was a short-handed North Carolina team, and one that doesn’t play nearly as good of defense as the Terrapins do. Maryland will challenge every shot Duke attempts, inside and outside, and should have enough offense to keep it close. Take Maryland plus the points.

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