Texas Longhorns vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview and Pick

Texas Longhorns (22-11) -4, 126.5 O/U vs. Minnesota Gophers (21-10) +4, 126.5 O/U, East Region Opening Round, Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, N.C., Thursday, March 19, 7:10 PM EST, CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

The tricky 7-seed-versus-10-seed matchup in the East Region of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will tip off in primetime when the Texas Longhorns of the Big 12 Conference go up against the Minnesota Gophers of the Big 10 Conference in the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, N.C.

The Longhorns had what most hardcore fans in Texas consider a disappointing season, despite winning 22 games on the year. Texas finished in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 this season (6th, 11-8), but what most people will remember is that the Longhorns suffered a brutal three-game losing streak at the start of February and that they lost two of their last three games in the regular season (to Oklahoma State and Kansas) before falling out of the Big 12 tournament with a quarterfinal loss to Baylor, 76-70.

Minnesota on the other hand is on the upswing in head coach Tubby Smith’s second season at the helm. The Gophers won more than 20 games for the first time in a long time, although they too are struggling to finish the season off strong losing four of their last six in the regular season. However, Minnesota did give Michigan State a major challenge in the Big 10 tourney, losing 64-56, which is what the selection committee must have been looking at when they gave the Gophers an at large bid to the dance.

Oddsmaker opened the game with Texas as modest 4-point favorites and the number has held firm during early betting at the window. The over/ under total opened at 126, and it has only moved up a half-point to 126.5 at most sportsbooks, although there are a few offshore sportsbooks that list the total at 127.

It’s no secret that Texas will go as far as guard A.J. Abrams takes them. The Longhorn guard is not only the team’s top scorer at 16.3 points per game, but he’s also the team’s emotional leader as well. Forward Damion James (15.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg) is a big body inside that controls the paint, but he often has foul trouble that makes him spend more time on the bench than on the floor. The one facet that the Longhorns have that will certainly help them versus the Gophers is their depth in the paint, as Texas can run centers Gary Johnson, Dexter Pittman and Connor Atchley and their 15 fouls at Minnesota, who lacks height and depth in the paint.

Texas as a team averaged 72.3 points per game, shooting 44.2 percent from the floor during the season. On defense, they allowed just 65.5 points a night on 40.6 percent shooting.

Minnesota doesn’t have a prolific scorer on their side, as guard Lawrence Westbrook leads the team with just a 12.4 points per game average. As a team, the Gophers only averaged 66.5 points per game on 44.2 percent shooting.

But what the Gophers do have is a strong and aggressive defense. They finished the season ranked 34th in the NCAA in points allowed per game at 61.1 per night, and 33rd in shooting percentage allowed at 39.8 percent. Tubby Smith has dedicated himself and the team to play hard-nosed defense first, and the players have taken to that approach with a 100 percent commitment.

These two schools haven’t met on the hardwood in recent times, but they did have two common opponents on their schedules this season. The Longhorns lost to Michigan State (67-63) then beat Wisconsin (74-69) in back-to-back games back in December, while the Gophers swept the season series versus the Badgers (51-46; 78-74 OT) and were swept by the Spartans (70-58; 76-47) during the Big 10 regular season.

The Longhorns struggled at the window as well as on the court this season, as they finished the year with a 11-18-1 ATS record. It has been especially bad of late, as they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and 0-2-1 in the Big 12 tourney. Minnesota was 12-14-1 ATS this year, including a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 game overall.

One fact that bettors will need to keep in mind before wagering on this game is that No. 7 seeds have had the upper hand in the matchup with No. 10 seeds the past six tourneys. In the 7/10 game, the No. 7 seed is a strong 17-7 both SU and ATS since the 2002 bracket.

Badger’s Pick: The Gophers are a great story and are certainly a program on the rise under Smith. When the brackets were announced on Sunday, Minnesota fans were overjoyed beyond belief that the Gophers finally made it back to the big dance. But reality will hit hard Thursday, as they just don’t have the guns to hang with the size and depth of Texas, especially inside. The Longhorns will pull away late in an ugly, low-scoring game. Take Texas minus the 4-points here.

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