San Diego Toreros vs. St. Mary's Gaels Preview and Pick

San Diego Toreros (16-12) +12, 128 O/U at St. Mary’s Gaels (23-4) -12, 128 O/U, McKeon Pavilion, Moraga, California, 10 PM Eastern, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com

The 23rd-ranked St. Mary’s Gaels will have revenge and redemption on their minds Monday night when they host the San Diego Toreros in the McKeon Pavilion in a West Coast Conference basketball showdown.

The Gaels will have revenge on their minds because San Diego is the only WCC team to beat them this season, a 63-55 upset in San Diego back on January 28th. They will also have redemption on their minds because the Gaels tarnished their perfect home record in the McKeon with a 65-57 loss to Kent State on Saturday. St. Mary’s went six minutes down the stretch without a basket, thus ending their six-game win streak and their perfect 14-0 record at home.

San Diego is also turning a lot of heads in the WCC this season. The Toreros had their own seven-game winning streak snapped last week, losing a close 59-55 contest on the road at Gonzaga last Monday. The Toreros rebounded Saturday to beat Santa Clara, 66-62, and will need to keep playing strong basketball to beat the Gaels on their home floor.

Most Online Sportsbooks opened the game with St. Mary’s as a strong 12-point favorite, with a 128-point over/under total. Most books are also favoring the Gaels on the moneyline bet, with St. Mary’s at -820 and San Diego listed at +640.

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Point guard Patrick Mills is the Gaels best all-around player (averages 14.9 pts., 3.7 assists, 1.7 steals), but he has become one part of an effective one-two offensive punch with Diamon Simpson. Simpson had an outstanding game in the loss to Kent State, dropping 24 points and 15 rebounds in the defeat. Mills meanwhile was taken away in the Kent State game (just 5 points), although his 2-for-11 shooting performance certainly didn’t help.

St. Mary’s boasts an offense that scores 77.3 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting from the floor. However, they struggled with turnovers in their last loss to San Diego (16 of them) and also have a tendency to struggle when their transition game is taken away, as was the case Saturday when Kent State when nobody but Simpson could find the hoop.

San Diego is powered on offense by guard Brandon Johnson. Johnson (16.4 ppg, 3.5 apg) is the leader of a Toreros attack that scores only 64.2 points per game on what most would consider average shooting percentages (44.5 % from floor, 33.7% from 3-point).

Toreros forward Rob Jones (ave. 14.8 ppg in the last 8 games) has turned up his offensive production of late, but he tends to disappear in big games (0 points vs. St. Mary’s in first game, just 2 points vs. Gonzaga last Monday). San Diego will need a big game out of Jones and fellow forward Gyno Pomare (10 pts., 8 reb. in last game) if the Toreros are going to contend with the Gaels big men inside.

Defensively these two are very similar. Both play an in-your-face approach that limits easy scoring opportunities (St. Mary’s allows 62.7 ppg, San Diego 63.2 ppg) and second chance points off the boards in the paint. St. Mary’s tall, front-court heavy lineup challenges shots better overall (allowing just 40 FG%, 30 3-PT%; San Diego allows 43.9 FG%, 36.2 3-PT%), but the Gaels could be missing their big inside intimidator in center Omar Samhan who left the Kent State with a bad shoulder and never returned.

San Diego has won two straight games in the series, including last year’s game in the McKeon Pavilion by a score of 76-72. Both games also saw the Toreros cover the spread too, including the game back in January as 7-point home underdogs. Ironically, homecourt advantage has meant little in the recent head-to-head meetings, as the road team is a strong 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games played.

For the season St. Mary’s is a moneymaking 14-9-1 ATS, including covering in five of their last seven overall.

But San Diego is an equally impressive 16-8 ATS on the season, and is currently riding a four-game covering streak and six out of their last seven overall.

The other betting trend to note – the games in this matchup has been mostly an offensive showcase. Seven of their last eight head-to-head matchups have come in over the total, with the lone exception being their previous game in January this season.

Badger’s Pick: I fully expect St. Mary’s to come out of the gates with something to prove after laying a dud in their “bracket busters” game versus Kent State. But that said, I think the Gaels were exposed a little as well in the same game as being just a two-player team on offense (Mills and Simpson). San Diego knows this too. Look for the Toreros to stop the two-headed monster for most of the game and keep this one close. Take San Diego and the points.

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