Connecticut Huskies vs. Syracuse Orangemen Preview and Pick

Connecticut Huskies (16-5) +3.5, 150 O/U at Syracuse Orange (16-7) -3.5, 150 O/U, Carrier Dome, Syracuse, N.Y., 7 PM Eastern, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

Two Big East Conference schools that are both on winning streaks meet Wednesday as part of ESPN’s “rivalry week,” when the Connecticut Huskies travel to take on the Syracuse Orange in the Carrier Dome.

Not only are both teams playing really well of late (UConn on a five- game streak, Syracuse on a three-game streak), but both teams are led by Hall of Fame coaches looking to reach another milestone with a victory. Connecticut’s Jim Calhoun and Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim will both be looking to earn their 767th career victory in tonight’s game.

The 19th-ranked Huskies started their five-game run back on January 20th, with an 89-73 victory over then-No. 13 Marquette. The Huskies continued their impressive play beating several more ranked opponents including Pittsburgh last Saturday, 60-53. They’ve also been doing it without the services of leading scorer, Jerome Dyson, who is still on indefinite suspension following an alcohol-related incident on campus.

Syracuse seems to have kept the ship afloat, rebounding from a really bad start to the Big East schedule (went 3-4 in first seven games), including a heartbreaker in OT at Georgetown, 64-62. Since the loss to the Hoyas, the Orange has rattled off three in a row including two impressive wins on the road last week at DePaul and at Villanova.

The sportsbooks opened the rivalry game with Syracuse as a 2-point favorite, with a total of 150. But most offshore sportsbooks have already taken enough action on the Orange that the line has moved up to 3-points. The moneyline has Syracuse listed as a -143, with Connecticut as a +131.

Connecticut has responded well as a team since the Dyson suspension, with just about everyone across the board picking up some of the scoring slack. Guard A.J. Price has been the biggest difference, as he has averaged 17 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists during the win streak. He was a force in the Pittsburgh game, scoring 21 with six boards and five dimes in the victory.

Improved shooting has been the key for the Orange during their winning streak. They shot an unbelievable 62 percent from the floor in their win over Villanova last weekend, and have been scoring just over 70 points per game during the streak (72.6).

Paul Harris (28 points) and Jonny Flynn (24 points) both enjoyed a great game last time out, as both of them went 8-of-11 from the floor in the win. Donte Green, who leads the Orange with 18.3 points per game, also had a good all-around game with 17 points, 7 boards and 3 steals.

Both teams usually play strong defense, but looking at the numbers it doesn’t seem to be the case this season. Connecticut allows 68.7 points a game, slightly better than the Orange’s average of 73.1 allowed. But Syracuse has dialed up the pressure in the patented matchup zone lately, allowing just 64 points a game during the winning streak.

UConn won the first game between the two schools last season (a 67-60 win as a 4-point fave), but the Orange took the last two games including a 78-65 win in the Big East tournament that sent the Huskies home early for the second year in a row.

The rivalry has been pretty even of late too, as both teams have gone 3-3 SU in the past two seasons, and both teams are also 3-3 ATS in the past two seasons as well.

For the season, Syracuse is a slightly better bet with an 11-10 ATS record compared to Connecticut 7-9-1 ATS record. UConn is 3-1-1 ATS during their winning streak, while Syracuse is on a strong 5-1 ATS run in their past six games. UConn does struggle on the road though, as they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games on the road.

Another betting trend worth looking at is the under. The under has cashed in at a strong rate for both teams (7-1 in last 8 Syracuse games; 9-4-1 in UConn’s last 14 games on Wed.), as well as in the head-to-head matchup in this rivalry (9-4 in last 13 head-to-head).

Badger’s Pick: Both teams are on good runs, so momentum is debatable in this game. But I like the way the Huskies have played since the suspension of Dyson. It’s been a sort of addition by subtraction approach that I think has allowed the very talented Huskie roster really focus on the task at hand. They’re buying into Calhoun’s schemes, and it shows. Take Connecticut plus the points.

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