Villanova Wildcats vs. Duke Blue Devils Preview and Pick

Villanova Wildcats (28-7) +2.5, 148 O/U vs. Duke Blue Devils (30-6) -2.5, 148 O/U, TD Banknorth Garden, Boston, Mass., Thursday, March 26, East Region Sweet 16, 10:07 PM EST, CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

The final game on Thursday night’s Sweet 16 schedule could burn down the house at the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, as the No. 3-seeded Villanova Wildcats will look to continue their stellar late-season play versus the team everyone loves to hate, the No. 2-seeded Duke Blue Devils.

The Wildcats played a near flawless game and looked virtually unstoppable in their 89-69 thrashing of UCLA Sunday in Miami. Villanova’s defense caused 20 turnovers as they put the clamps on the Bruins offense, helping them earn their fifth win in their last six games with their only loss coming at the hands of Louisville in the final of the Big East Conference tournament.

Duke is coming off of a scrappy, 74-69 victory over Texas in their second round game just down the road in Greensboro, N.C. After failing to reach the Sweet 16 the past two seasons, head coach Mike Krzyzewski has his Blue Devils on the doorstep of the Elite 8 again for the first time since 2006.

Oddsmakers share the opinion that this game could very well be the best game out of the eight Sweet 16 matchups, as they opened the game with Duke as slim 3-point favorites. Early bettors must have the Villanova game on Sunday fresh on their minds, as action at the window in favor of the wildcats has caused the number to drop to 2.5- points or even 2-points in favor of Duke at most offshore sportsbooks.

The over/under total opened at 148.5 and has held firm for the most part at the books in Las Vegas, although most of the offshore books have lowered the total down a half-point to 148. The moneyline is also a close wager, as the early numbers show Duke as -140 favorites and Villanova as +120 underdogs.

The old cliché says that guard play can win games in the NCAA tournament. Well, this game will feature enough guards to win several NCAA tournaments, although most of them are tall enough to be considered swingmen.

Villanova’s offense is run through point guard Scottie Reynolds, who leads the backcourt with a 15.1 points per game average, but he is just one of five guards/guard-forwards that the Wildcats rely on to control the tempo of the game. Dwayne Anderson and Reggie Redding are long, athletic guards that feature versatile, all-around games, while Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes come off the Wildcat bench without the team missing a beat.

Villanova will need all of those bodies to be on top of their game Thursday, as the Blue Devils also feature a lineup full of versatile guard/forward types that are equally skilled at slashing to the hole as they are at chucking up 3-pointers. Gerald Henderson (16.8 ppg) and Kyle Singler (16.5) are the top two threats on offense for Duke, but it’s the play of new point guard Jon Scheyer that keys the Blue Devils attack. Scheyer has been credited with sparking the Duke offense a little over a month ago when Coach K put him on the point and moved Greg Paulus to the bench.

It should come as no surprise that with so many similar players on the floor for both teams, that their season-long averages are virtually the same as well. Villanova averaged 77.0 points per game, Duke averaged 78.1. Villanova allowed 67.1 points for the opponent, Duke allowed 65.6. And both teams are strong from the charity stripe as well, with Villanova’s 74.6 percent average just slightly better than Duke’s 72.8 percent.

The two teams last met on the court in November of 2000, so head-to-head history will not help bettors decide which side to take in this game. For the record, Duke won the game, 98-85, but Villanova covered as large 19-point underdogs.

Neither team will enter the game Thursday with momentum on their side … as far as betting goes. Duke ended the year 17-17-1 ATS, but has only covered the spread in three of their last seven games. The Blue Devils did cover in their opening round victory over Binghamton (as 23.5-point faves), but only but the half-point hook.

Villanova has been playing well on the court, but it hasn’t translated to the window for bettors. The Wildcats were 17-14 ATS on the year in the tough Big East Conference, but they are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games and that’s including the strong cover over UCLA as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday.

Neither team has done particularly well ATS historically either, as Duke is just 2-8-1 ATS versus Big East teams in their last 10 tries, while Villanova has troubles on Thursday nights to the tune of a 1-8 ATS record in their last nine tries.

If you’re a fan of betting trends, then you’ll probably be wagering on the under in this game. The under is 7-2 in Duke’s last nine games versus a Big East foe, while the under is also 8-2 in Villanova’s last 10 non-conference games. Ironically though, both teams have gone over the total in both games of the 2009 tourney so far.

Badger’s Pick: The wildcard in this game is Villanova forward Dante Cunningham. Cunningham is the only back-to-the-basket player on the floor, and at 16.3 points per game, I’m not sure the Blue Devils have anyone on the roster to matchup with him. In a coin-flip, I’m going with Cunningham and the Wildcats here. Take Villanova plus the 2.5- points.

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