Final Four Picks: Villanova vs. North Carolina

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Villanova Wildcats (30-7) +7.5, 160 O/U vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (32-4) -7.5, 160 O/U, Ford Field, Detroit, Mich., Saturday, April 4th, 8:47 PM EST, CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

Once upon a time the Villanova Wildcats knocked off the heavily favored Georgetown Hoyas led by then-senior Patrick Ewing to instantly become a part of Final Four lore forever.

This year’s version of the Wildcats story has some similarities, but if “Cinderella” is going to continue it will once again have to go through a powerful, heavily favored opponent when the ‘Cats take on North Carolina in Saturday night’s late Final Four tip off at Ford Field in Detroit.

Most basketball oddsmakers opened the line on the game with North Carolina as 7.5-point favorites, but the point spread has dropped the hook to just minus-7 at most Internet Sportsbooks. The over/under total opened at 160 and has also adjusted slightly down to 159 at most books.

North Carolina was everyone’s preseason pick as title contenders and it appears head coach Roy Williams has the Tar Heels right on schedule, peaking at tournament time to the tune of 88.75 points per game and a 22.5 average scoring margin in the tournament (slightly inflated by a 43-point win over Radford).

With point guard Ty Lawson’s injured toe apparently a non-issue, the Tar Heels have rolled into Detroit with nary a challenge so far in their four tourney games as the South Region’s No. 1-seed. All right, so maybe they struggled in a 14-point victory over LSU in round two, but their 12-point win Sunday over Oklahoma was not as close as the score indicates.

But the Tar Heels will run into the Wildcats next, who are the surprise of the NCAA tournament so far, if that can be said about the East Region’s No. 3-seed. The ‘Cats long, athletic backcourt combinations that can go six or seven players deep and have been giving opponent’s fits on defense, with the defensive spotlight coming when they limited Duke to just 54 points in the Sweet 16-round game.

The obvious key to this game will be defense, as in, will Carolina feel passionate enough to play any defense. Villanova has the depth and manpower capable of running with the Carolina transition game early on in the game. If Carolina forward Tyler Hansbrough can get Nova’s Dante Cunningham in early foul trouble by getting his “All- American” calls from the refs, it could lead to problems for the Wildcats.

Both teams have been successful at the window too, with the chalk North Carolina Tar Heels going a perfect 4-0 ATS, while the Wildcats are 3-1 ATS with the non-cover coming to American in the opening round as 15-point favorites. For the season Villanova was a solid 19-14 ATS, while the Tar Heels (15-19 ATS) actually were 1-5 ATS in their last six games prior to the tourney, so what does it matter anyway.

The betting trends on the over/under total bet are screwy, since the team known for playing suffocating defense (Nova) has actually gone over in three of their four games, while the team with the high- powered offense (North Carolina) has stayed under the total in three out of four.

Badger’s Pick: This game is going to be worth every penny of admission, as the backcourt depth of Villanova will give the Tar Heels by far their biggest challenge this season. In fact, Villanova will cover this game for 39 minutes and refuse to go away. But the relentless attack of the Tar Heels offense will wear down a foul- prone ‘Cats defense and backdoor cover the 7.5-points on free throws. I also think the football stadium seating arrangement and sight lines at Ford Field will make all four teams struggle to score Saturday, especially the ‘Cats. Go with the under of 160, and North Carolina minus the 7.5-points to set up a UConn-North Carolina title game.

Oracle’s Pick: The Wildcats aren't afraid of anybody, which makes them dangerous. The Tar Heels have had relative ease with their opponents so far, winning by at least 12 points in every game. Villanova no doubt has had one of the tougher roads of the Final Four teams. The match up that everyone will be looking at is Ty Lawson and Scottie Reynolds - and rightfully so. The Wildcat guards will drive and dish or drive and get to the line in this one. Look for them to spread the Tar Heels out. Although they don't have anyone to physically match up with Hansbrough, the Wildcats will do just fine with their stellar guard play. Their senior laden team will put UNC out of the tournament with a shocking win, 79-74.

Wilson's Pick:
Ty Lawson is on a mission from God! Ok, maybe Lawson isn’t one of the Blues Brothers but his Carolina Blue will be streaking up and down the court this Saturday. The Heels are playing like a National Championship team; they have stepped up their game in every area, most notably on defense. I’m sorry Villanova, but the journey ends this weekend. Sure, there is memory of the David and Goliath story from 1985 as Nova downed Patrick Ewing and the Hoyas but I don’t see that happening again. North Carolina 80, Villanova 67. Luck to ya!

Editors Pick: I like Villanova to win straight up in a huge upset!

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