NCAA Football Season Wins
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The 2007 NCAA football season is fast approaching. While I dont recommend large wagers on season wins because of the fact that your money will be tied up for approximately 4 months, here are some plays that you can put down a few units on and give yourself a chance to make a profit. I have looked at the 6 main conferences (Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 10) and came up with 2 plays in each conference to make a wager on. These lines were taken from TheGreek.com.
Louisville over 10 wins The Cardinals have a new Head Coach in Kragthorpe who loves a wide open offense. This is good for a squad that returns 8 offensive starters including a great QB in Brian Brohm. For us to lose this bet the Cardinals would have to lose 3 games and I do not see that happening with the schedule they face. In fact, it would not surprise me if they went undefeated in the regular season.
South Florida over 7.5 wins The Bulls were 9-4 last year and return 9 offensive starters and 7 defense starters. Head Coach Jim Leavitt is a very good coach and they have both West Virginia and Louisville at home. This is an up and coming program that began the football program in 1996 and could be contender for the Big East title this year.
Florida State under 9.5 wins The Seminoles should be a much better team this year with their revamped coaching staff; however, they have a brutally tough schedule. They have road games at Virginia Tech and Florida as well as early season road games at Clemson, Colorado, Wake Forest (who beat them last year 30-0) and Boston College. They were 7-6 this year so I expect an improvement but I believe 10 wins is a bit much to ask.
Georgia Tech over 7 wins - This number is low because the Yellow Jackets lose 4 year starting QB Reggie Ball and superstar Calvin Johnson. I believe that anyone replacing Ball will be an improvement and the Jackets have some great receiver depth. They have 7 home games which are all winnable and I like them to get about 9 wins this year.
Florida under 10 wins The Gators, fresh off a National Championship, also have a very tough schedule. They have road games at LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee and Auburn along with a neutral site game with Georgia in Jacksonville. Throw in a season ending home game with Florida State and it appears that the Gators will see a dip in their wins this year.
South Carolina over 7 wins The Gamecocks return 7 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense. Combine that with the fact that Head Coach Steve Spurrier is in his 3rd year and you have the makings for a successful season. I think they will go way over the posted number of 7 wins and could be a SEC Championship contender.
Ohio State over 9 wins The Buckeyes will return to a more normal Ohio State team as they return to their defense ways after losing a number of star offensive players. They have a very easy non-conference schedule which should net them 4 wins, throw in a win against Michigan who Head Coach Tressel owns, and a fairly weak Big 10 conference schedule and I think we have a winner here.
Iowa over 8.5 wins The Hawkeyes have an easy non-conference schedule and they avoid both Michigan and Ohio State in the Big 10. This looks like it should be a great year for Iowa to move up in National perception and I think they hit double digit wins.
Nebraska under 9 wins The Cornhuskers have a tough schedule with a home game against USC and road games at Texas and Missouri. They will be starting a new QB in Sam Keller who had success at Arizona State but is new to the program. I look for the Huskers to be an improved team but I think an 8-4 record is much more likely than a 10-2 record. If they win the 9 games then we will take the push.j
Texas A&M over 7.5 wins The Aggies have a schedule that should allow them to get off to a fast 5-1 start. They will still need 3 wins in their last 6 games but I expect them to get that as they are always a tough team at home.
USC under 11 wins I know what you are thinking, the Trojans are the best team in all of football. While I will agree with you on that, the schedule is just too tough for them to be expected to go undefeated which is the only way we can lose our bet. They have road games at Nebraska, Washington, Notre Dame, Oregon, California and Arizona State. If they can make it through all of those games without a loss then they deserve to be National Champs!
Arizona State over 8 wins The Cardinals have a new coach in Dennis Erickson and they have 9 returning offensive starters. With all of this experience they should get off to a fast start and they have a schedule that should allow them to start off 7-1 or 8-0.
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Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
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College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
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Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
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