No. 9 Boise State Broncos +2.5, 46 O/U (12-0) 6-3-2 ATS, 5-6 O/U vs. No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs -2.5, 46 O/U (10-2) 8-3 ATS, 5-6 O/U Tuesday, December 23 Qualcomm Stadium (70,561) San Diego, California- San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Game 9:00 p.m. EST, TV ESPN.
By Wilson of Predictem.com
San Diego will have to do for the undefeated Boise State Broncos who arguably should be in a BCS game. But head coach Chris Petersen knows that his team and staff can only control the things they do within their program; the rest is up to outside influence. Unfortunately for the Broncos they play in a weaker conference which certainly held them out of this year’s “big show” despite previous wins over higher caliber teams, and even a BCS Bowl upset in 2007 over Oklahoma.
The Broncos head down to San Diego after completing another undefeated season- their third in five years. They beat Fresno State 61-10 to earn their 12th win of the season. QB Kellen Moore had another stellar day behind center as he threw for 213 yards on 17-of-23 passing and 2 touchdowns. Bronco running back Ian Johnson rushed for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. Johnson’s longest run was for 69 yards.
Boise State’s defense is one of the best in the country as they allow 12.3 points per game to their opponents, and their offense averages nearly 40 points per contest. The Broncos have had 9 bowl appearances with this year as their 8th in a row. They have been ranked in the top 25 for 7 consecutive years.
TCU comes into the Poinsettia Bowl as a 2.5 favorite mainly due to strength of schedule, but they bring well balanced attack as well. The Horned Frogs closed out their regular season with a 44-10 win over Air Force. TCU’s QB, Andy Dalton, earned honorable mention for the ALL-MWC. Offensively, the Horned Frogs average 35 points per game. They have a veteran offensive line led by center Blake Schlueter, and they can be very explosive off the ball.
The TCU defense is extremely quick and greedy as they are second in the nation in points allowed per contest at just 10.9 as USC is ranked first by giving up just 7.8 per game. Defensive end Jerry Hughes is maybe the best player in the country at his position. Hughes has a nation best 14 sacks and 6 forced fumbles. The Horned Frogs only allowed 16 touchdowns all season.
This game should be a good matchup, I don’t see a blow out on either side as both teams execute well on offense and defense. The quarterback matchup will definitely determine which team gets the upper hand. Andy Dalton is a good QB, but Kellen Moore is perhaps one of the best in the country even as a freshman. Moore is stoic and makes great decisions thus a huge reason why Boise State is 12-0.
Qualcomm Stadium has 51 water fountains, and Boise State fans will be very thirsty for a season capping bowl victory, perhaps not as “fairy tale” of a season as the Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma but a great season to say the least.
Wilson’s Pick: TCU is 4-1 in their last five bowl games, while Boise State is 108-19 in the last ten years, the best in the nation. I like Kellen Moore and the Broncos to cover the points and remain undefeated. Luck to ya.
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