2009 BCS Championship Game
Florida Gators (12-1) -3, 70 O/U versus Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) +3, 70 O/U, Dolphins Stadium, Miami, Fla., 8:15 PM Eastern, Thursday, January 8th, FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
You can say all you want about the BCS and their system for deciding who plays in the title game, fair or unfair, it is what it is. But at least it, their game, looks like it will be captivating as the 12-1 Florida Gators and All-American quarterback Tim Tebow take on Heisman trophy winner Sam Bradford and his 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners for the crystal ball in Dolphins Stadium in Miami January 8th.
Both teams survived an early season loss in the regular season to reach the title game.
Florida comes into the game with a little more momentum than the Sooners. After losing to a surprising Ole Miss team at home in the Swamp, 31-30, back in late September, the Gators ran the table the rest of the way winning nine straight including a 31-20 victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
The Sooners suffered their lone setback versus rival Texas in early October, 45-35, on a neutral field in the Cotton Bowl. They also ran the table the rest of the way, winning seven straight, then needed help from the BCS system to leapfrog Texas into the Big 12 Championship game where they quickly disposed of Missouri, 62-21.
Oddsmakers opened the title game with the Florida Gators as early 3- point favorites. That number has held firm for over a month during the early action at the window, although a few sportsbooks have raised it up a hook to Florida minus 3.5-points.
The over/under total is a different story. The total opened at 72 back in early December, and although sportsbetting.com still lists it at 72, for the most part the number has dropped to 71.5, 70.5 or even 70 at most offshore sportsbooks on the Internet. Shop around and you’re sure to get a total you’ll like, whether you want the 70 or the 72.
On the moneyline, the Gators are currently listed as -165 favorites, with the Sooners as +145 underdogs.
With two of the top signal callers in the nation, and a plethora of speed and skill athletes surrounding both of them, this game will surely feature plenty of offense.
Oklahoma finished the regular season ranked 3rd in total offense at 562.3 yards per game, with most of that total coming from the arm of Bradford via the passing game (356.5 ypg – 3rd). The Sooners also led the entire NCAA in scoring with a 54.0 points per game average. They will be without starting running back DeMarco Murray in the game due to a knee injury he suffered in the Big 12 title game, but the Sooners have Chris Brown (1,110 yds., 18 TD) to fill in his place so don’t shed a tear for Bob Stoops.
Florida also put up impressive numbers on offense this season, tallying 442.4 yards per game (18th) with a more balanced attack (212.6 passing – 61st; 229.8 running – 11th) than the Sooners chuck-n- duck attack. They also put up numbers in bunches, scoring 45.2 points per game to finish 3rd in the country in that category. The Gators also have a question mark at running back, as Percy Harvin missed the Alabama game with a bad ankle, but reports from Florida say Harvin is a go for the BCS game so expect him to be near 100 percent by game time.
Defensively is where this game will be made, and both teams have had their successes and failures throughout the season.
Statistically, Florida is the stronger unit as they only allow 279.3 yards per game compared to Oklahoma’s 359.1 yards per game allowed average. But the Oklahoma total was skewed due to the overall strength of the Big 12 and it’s pass-happy offenses, as the Sooners gave up 253.1 yards through the air every game to Florida’s 174-ypg average. On the scoreboard, where it ultimately counts the most, the Gators allow just 12.8 points per game (5th), where as the Sooners allow 24.5 points per game (57th).
Betting trends are all over the board in this game, but one thing seems to jump out at you … the over. Florida went over in eight of their 12 games this year, while the Sooners did it in 11 of their 12. Plus, the Sooners and their high-caliber offense have gone over the total in 10 of their last 12 non-conference games, so it’s not just Big 12 shootouts that are pushing the Sooners over the number.
Florida seems to play its best when the competition is tough, as they are a rock-solid 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus teams with winning records. Both teams finished the year with 10-2 ATS records, so covering the spread is something both team do well.
Badger’s Pick: So much emphasis will be placed on the offenses, and specifically the quarterbacks, in this game that I’m going the other way in this one. Both defenses are filled with athletes and speed, and I expect both defensive coordinators to throw everything AND the kitchen sink at both QB’s to disrupt timing and bring pressure. That said, I like Tebow’s escapability to be the difference. Florida wins a close one, with less scoring than most people predict. Florida 28 – Oklahoma 24.
Jay Horne’s Pick: The National Championship game will be an exciting game to watch as two electrifying offenses take the field. I can promise there will be a lot of points scored in this game. The difference will be turnovers and defense. The SEC has proved in recent years that their defenses can control the big games. While I do not think the Florida defense will shut down Oklahoma, I do believe they will be effective enough. The Gators are as strong and dangerous offensively as Oklahoma, but the Florida defense holds a big advantage over the Sooners defense. Once again the SEC will claim the crown, the conference that breeds National Champions. Florida 41 Oklahoma 31.
Wilson’s Pick: I think this game has all the hype and publicity as the USC vs. Texas game of 2006. Both teams are probably from the toughest conferences in college football, and they each have a Heisman winner behind center.
Tebow may be more mobile than Bradford, and perhaps feels less pressure after he has already been through the whole media/talk show circuit of the Heisman glory story, but I believe it will be Bradford who gets the job done.
I like Bradford's quick reactions and timely decision making. He is no "twinkle-toes Flintstone" but he has proven he can lead his team to big wins. The Sooners no-huddle offense and hurried style has worked all season outside of the Texas loss. Oklahoma has been on a 7- game winning streak and should be fast enough on defense to slow down the Gators and the Tebow show. Sooners win 35-31.
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