Humanitarian Bowl: Bowling Green Falcons (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Idaho Vandals (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS), 4:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday, December 30, 2009, Bronco
Stadium, Boise, Idaho, TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bowling Green -1.5/Idaho +1.5
Over/Under: 68
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Two teams very familiar with the blue carpet of Bronco Stadium in Boise will meet in the Humanitarian Bowl Wednesday, when the Bowling Green Falcons travel West to face the home-state Idaho Vandals on ESPN.
But how the Falcons got here is the exact opposite to the Vandals.
Bowling Green is back in Boise on the smurf turf for a second straight year, losing in a non-conference game last year to Boise State, 20-7. However, the Falcons were one of the hottest teams around at the end of the regular season, turning a 1-4 start under first-year head coach Dave Clawson into a bowl-bound 7-5 campaign with a strong 6-2 finish in the Mid-American Conference.
Idaho is back in a bowl for the first time since 1998, when they played in the same Humanitarian Bowl in the same venue and beat Southern Mississippi, 42-35. After surprising nearly everyone by starting out 6-1 and becoming bowl eligible quickly under head coach Robb Akey, Idaho dropped four of their last five games this season including a 63-25 whoopin’ on the blue carpet against Boise State back in mid-November.
Recent history seems to trump a great storyline too, at least in the eyes of the sports betting public. Oddsmakers opened this game as a pick em’ originally, but the early steam moved the number all the way up to Bowling Green minus 2-points at a few offshore sportsbooks. Now, a few weeks later, the number is back down to just Bowling Green minus -1.5 or -1-point at a majority of the houses offshore and in Las Vegas.
The over/under total opened at 68 and has held firm, although you may find a few sportsbooks that have added the hook to make it 68.5.
Offensively, this game will feature the passing attack for both teams.
Bowling Green features one of the better quarterback/receiver duos in the NCAA with Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes. Sheehan averages 305.3 yards passing a game (5th in NCAA) and has thrown for 3,6664 yards and 23 touchdowns, including at least one touchdown in his last 21 games (3rd longest active streak in NCAA). Barnes, who has an unbelievable 138 catches this season and also leads the country in touchdowns with 16, needs just five catches in the Humanitarian Bowl to break the NCAA record for catches in a season.
Idaho also likes to throw the ball a lot, featuring the 11th-ranked passing offense in the country at nearly 300 yards a contest (290.6 ypg). Their leader, quarterback Nathan Enderie, is a very efficient signal caller (7th in NCAA at 155.75) that has led the Vandals offense to score 31.8 points per game.
The wildcard for the Vandals is running back DeMaundray Woolridge (853 yds., 12 TD), who averages over five yards per carry (5.7) and gives Idaho a little bit of balance the Falcons don’t really have in their huddle.
Defensively it gets ugly in a hurry, which explains the rather large 68-point total.
The Falcons do a considerable job against the pass (allow 201 ypg – 35th), but they don’t face too many prolific passing teams in the MAC, so take that for what its worth. Their problem is that they allow nearly the same yardage on the ground (194.9 ypg – 103rd), so why pass when you can run.
The focus for the Vandals is clearly on offense, because how else can you explain 424.8 yards allowed each game and 35.5 points.
As you would expect, these two schools have never met on the field.
Strictly going on how these teams finished the year, the Falcons look like a more attractive wager. Bowling Green not only won four straight and six of their last seven to close the year, they also covered the point spread in those final four games and went 5-1 ATS in their last six. Meanwhile, the Vandals not only lost four of their last five, but they also failed to cover in all five of those games.
If handicapping the game was that easy though, we’d all be on a beach somewhere warm with boat drinks in our hands.
Despite the large total of 68, the over looks like a good bet on paper. The over is 4-0 in the Vandals last four games against a MAC team. The over is also 8-1 in the Vandals last nine non-conference games too.
Badger’s Pick: Unless Idaho somehow found a defense during the month they had off between the regular season and the bowl, this game could turn into a track meet. Bowling Green is going to score, the big question is can Idaho match them score for score. I say yes, which is why my money is on the over. Take the over of 68.
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