Point Spread: Ohio -3/Marshall +3
Over/Under: 49
Bet college bowl games at reduced odds at one of the player's favorite sportsbooks on the net: 5Dimes.
Nobody really knows exactly what will happen when the Ohio Bobcats, runner up in the Mid-American Conference this season, take on the Marshall Thundering Herd, a middle-of-the-pack team from Conference USA, in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl the day after Christmas at Ford Field in Detroit.
On the surface, it looks like it should be a landslide for the Bobcats.
The Bobcats, led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, ended the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the MAC. The Bobbies won seven of their last nine games, including a four-game winning streak to close the season and held their own for the most part against a strong Central Michigan team in the MAC Championship game (lost 20-10 as 13.5-point underdogs) at the same venue of this bowl game, Ford Field.
Add that all together and what you get is the fact that Ohio is enjoying one of their best seasons in school history, and Solich and the Bobcats would like nothing more than to add the exclamation point by beating Marshall to earn the school’s first-ever bowl victory in the familiar surroundings of Ford Field.
But if times are great in Athens, Ohio, for the Bobcats these days, it’s easy to say that the times a little west in Huntington, W.Va., are not nearly as sweet for Marshall.
The Herd lost three of their last four games, finishing with a bad 52-21 loss at UTEP, and that’s just the actions on the field.Off the field the Thundering Herd program is in transition.
Head coach Mark Snyder resigned following the UTEP loss, and Rick Minter was appointed the interim coach for the bowl game. The Herd recently announced their new head coach for next season, John “Doc” Holliday (Associate HC at West Virginia the last two seasons), so there has to be some confusion among the players as their leadership is still kind of there leading them, but with the new sheriff looking over everyone’s shoulder ready to clean house as soon as the game is over.
The oddsmakers out in Las Vegas also believe the Bobcats are the team to beat in this matchup, just not in such a landslide, as they opened the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl with Ohio as slim 2-point favorites. Early action at the window has moved the line up slightly to Ohio minus 3-points at a majority of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web, with a few 2.5’s mixed in here and there if you want the hook.
The over/under total opened at 49.5 and has only moved down the hook to 49 at most books, although you can still find a few 49.5’s if you want that half-point.
Offensively, neither one of these teams is very dangerous or dynamic.
Ohio is led by quarterback Theo Scott, who is a solid athlete, but just not much of a throwing QB. For the season Scott completed only 58 percent of his throws for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Bobcats as a whole amass 324.5 yards a game (99th in NCAA), but only 204.8 of those yards come through the air, allowing them to score 25.4 points per game (75th).
Scott is surrounded by some solid wide receivers like Taylor Price (team-leading 735 yards, 5 TD), Terrence McCrae (534 yds., 8 TD) and their deep threat and punt returner LaVon Brazill (689 yds., 6 TD), but for some reason the Bobcats have trouble taking advantage of their strength on the perimeter. They also have a hard time converting points in the red zone, as they had only a 39 percent rate of scoring touchdowns once they get inside the 20-yard line.
Marshall is led by quarterback Brian Anderson, who has thrown for more yardage (2,561) than Scott, but is not nearly as accurate (57%, 14 TD, 13 INT), which isn’t saying much. The big difference is that the Herd has a 1,000-yard rusher in Darius Marshall (1,054 yds., 11 TD), who averages 5.1 yards per carry and helps the Herd run for 138.8 yards per game as a team (72nd). Receiver Aaron Dobson (24.1 yards per catch, 4 TD) is the Herds most dangerous threat on the outside.
The other major difference in this game will be the two defenses.
Ohio led the entire NCAA this season with 36 forced turnovers, so they are very opportunistic on the defensive side of the ball. For the year they allowed just 21.3 points per game (32nd), but their biggest weakness is against the run (allowed 150.9 ypg), which could spell trouble against Marshall.
Marshall’s defense allowed almost 400 yards a game during the C-USA schedule (192.5 ypg), which might explain why they finished 6-6 on the season. They also allowed an average of 24.9 points per game, which spells disaster when your own offense is only scoring 21 a game.
This will be the 53rd all-time meeting between the schools, with the last one back in 2004 when Marshall beat the Bobcats, 16-13, in Athens. In fact, even though the Bobcats lead the all-time series, the Herd has owned the recent history winning four straight (2001 thru ’04) and eight of the last nine meeting going back to 1988.
But while the Herd owns the recent history on the scoreboard, it’s the Bobcats that have been cashing in tickets for bettors with a 5-2 ATS record in the last seven tries. Take it with a grain of salt though, because almost all of those covers happened as large double- digit underdogs including a huge 26-point spread that they covered in a lopsided 42-18 loss in 2001.
For what it’s worth, these two schools had one common opponent this season. Both teams beat Bowling Green during the season, with the Bobcats outlasting them by a score of 44-37 in a game where they gave up 474 yards to the Falcons. The Herd also beat Bowling Green, but in a completely different game, beating the Falcons 17-10 where they too gave up a ton of yardage to the Falcons (393 yards).
Other betting trends worth noting are: the Herd is 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games, but only 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the MAC; Ohio is 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.
Badger’s Pick: With all that has gone on at Marshall since the season ended, I’m not sure the team will be focused on the game. Ohio is the better team, with the better defense and continuity at coach in Solich. Take Ohio minus the 3-points.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
