Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U vs. Wyoming Cowboys (6-6) 8-3 ATS, 6-5 O/U Saturday December 19, 2009 New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM 4:30 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Fresno State -12.5/Wyoming +12.5
Over/Under: 55
Bet this game using your credit card to deposit at one of the web's biggest online sportsbooks: Sportsbook.com.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are a scrappy football team that usually plays well against whomever they run into after the regular season, but will the Wyoming Cowboys give the dogs a run for their money in the New Mexico Bowl? I don’t think so. The Bulldogs are too much for the Cowboys in this game as they will dominate on both sides of the ball albeit their defense is suspect.
Fresno State comes into this game averaging 34.3 points per game and over 435 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs average 204 yards passing, and 231 yards rushing per contest. If we break those numbers down it means the Dogs are good for 5.4 yards per run and 8.1 yards per pass play. Needless to say, the Dogs don’t have a problem with three and outs.
Wyoming enters the New Mexico Bowl averaging 16 points per game and 298 yards of total offense per game. The Cowboys gain 170 through the air and 128 on the ground. Defensively, the Cowboys give up 27.2 points per game; 225 passing and 170 in rushing yards.
The Bulldogs allow 27.8 points per game to their opponents with 199 yards passing and 212 yards rushing.
Fresno State is entering this game after a 1-point loss 53-52 to Illinois on December 5. Wyoming is coming into this contest after 1-point win over the Colorado State Rams. Wyoming has won just two of their last six games while Fresno State has won five of their last six contests.
The Bulldog’s QB, Ryan Colburn, will have the slight edge on paper as he has 2333 yards passing on the season and a 60.2 percent completion rate. Colburn has tossed 18 TD passes and 11 interceptions while averaging 8.3 yards per completed pass play.
Wyoming’s QB, Austyn Carta-Samuels, has thrown for 1749 yards this year with a 59 percent completion rate. He has 7 touchdown passes and 4 INTs for an average of 5.93 yards per pass play.
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The over is 6-2 in Fresno State’s last 8 bowl games. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games following a SU win. Wyoming is also 4-1 in their last 5 games against WAC opponents. However, the Cowboys are just 3-13-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games versus the MWC.
In the last three years Fresno State is 1-1 ATS in bowl games and 6-5 ATS overall since 1992. The Bulldogs are 5-6 SU in bowl games since 1992. The Bulldogs are 20-30 ATS as the favorite since 1992. They are 41-9 SU since 1992 as the favorite.
Wyoming is not used to playing in the post season as they are just 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U and 1-1 SU in bowl games dating back to 1992. Since 1992 the Cowboys are 20-40 SU (50 %) against teams with a winning record.
The line on this game opened at Fresno State -10.5 with a total of 55. Most offshore casinos are showing the Bulldogs -12.5 also with a total of 55. The Las Vegas Hilton has Fresno State -13, while Caesar’s Palace and the MGM are posting the Bulldogs -12, but all three are showing the total at 54.5.
The Bulldogs defense can give up some points but their offense will prevail over the Cowboys. Fresno State is too tough and more experienced in bowl game atmosphere.
Wilson’s Pick: Fresno State will cover. Bulldogs 41, Cowboys 17. Luck to ya.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
