No. 6 Boise State Broncos (13-0) 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U vs. No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) 8-4 ATS, 6-4-2 O/U 2009 Fiesta Bowl January 4, 2009 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona 8:10 p.m. EST
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Boise State +7/TCU -7
Over/Under: 55
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TCU is the only team to beat the Boise State Broncos in the last two years. The Horned Frogs edged the Broncos last year in the Poinsettia Bowl 17-16 handing them their only loss in two seasons. The Broncos will have their chance at redemption in this year’s Fiesta Bowl.
Boise State comes into this game leading the country in scoring while TCU leads the nation in total defense. The Broncos are known for their tough defense as well which should make for a great coaching battle as far as when to and how to show different packages and schemes.
Both teams can put points on the board in a hurry; Bronco’s QB, Kellen Moore, has 39 touchdowns on the season, and TCU’s QB Andy Dalton has 22 TDs. The QBs only have 8 interceptions between them. Moore has a 64.6 percent completion rate and averages 8.46 yards per pass play. Dalton has a 62 percent completion rate and averages 8.9 yards per pass play.
The Broncos are averaging 44.2 points per game with 461 yards of total offense per game. BSU gains 266 passing yards per game and 195 on the ground. Defensively, the Broncos allow 17 points per game to their opponents. The Broncos defense gives up just 299 yards of total offense per contest as they allow 172 by air and 126 on the ground.
The Horned Frogs come into the Fiesta Bowl after scoring over 40 points per game this season with 469 yards of total offense per outing. TCU allows just 12.4 points per game to their competition. They give up 152 passing yards per effort and only 80 yards on the ground. This is the reason why they lead the nation in defense. Boise State will certainly spend extra time attempting to concoct a plan that might keep the Horned Frog defense on their toes, but the Broncos have a pretty stellar line of defense as well.
Boise State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. The under is 6-2 in Boise State’s last 8 games as an underdog. TCU is 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games overall.
The line on this game opened at TCU -9 with a total of 55. Most offshore casinos are also showing TCU at -7 with a total of 55. The Las Vegas sportsbooks are also showing the same line as the online casinos with the exception of Planet Hollywood which has the Horned Frogs at -6.5.
TCU is probably a better team than they were last year which is even more of an argument for their share of a National Championship given they defeat the Broncos. Broncos head coach, Chris Petersen knows his guys will be faced with a tall order but hey, it’s Boise State people, they shocked Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a series of trickeration and special plays that certainly will show up again in this game at some point. I think it’s a safe bet for all fans who are looking for a great college football matchup to take in this classic game. Both QBs will put on a show but this one may come down to a defensive battle given the stingy reputations on either side. Kellen Moore probably has the highest football IQ in the country and he makes great decisions under extreme pressure- this will make a big difference in the final moments of the game. Moore will prove his worth once again on a national stage.
Wilson’s Pick: Boise State 38, TCU 35. Moore leads his team into FG range with seconds on the clock. Luck to ya.
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