GMAC Bowl: Troy Trojans (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS), 7:00 p.m. EST, Wednesday, January 6, 2009, Ladd-Peebles
Stadium, Mobile, Ala., TV: ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Troy +3.5/Central Michigan -3.5
Over/Under: 63
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Two repeat conference champions will meet for the first time in a game that will serve as the primer the night before the BCS Championship game, when the Sun Belt Champion Troy Trojans take on the Mid-American Champion Central Michigan Chippewas in the GMAC Bowl in Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, Wednesday night on ESPN.
The Trojans ran the table in the Sun Belt Conference going 8-0 to earn their fourth straight conference title (or share), with by far their biggest victory of the season coming all the way back in early October when they beat Middle Tennessee, 31-7. The Trojans did finish the season on a mini hot streak, winning two in a row to become the first team from the state of Alabama to play in a bowl game in their home state.
The Chippewas come into the game ranked 25th in the last AP poll, the first time in school history they have ever been ranked in the top-25. They also enter the game as MAC champs for the third time in the last four seasons, sporting a four-game winning streak in the process.
But all of that success has its price, as the Chippewas will be without head coach Butch Jones for the bowl game. Jones was named the successor to Brian Kelly, again, taking the Cincinnati job a few weeks back to move up the coaching ladder and into a BCS program. Associate head coach Steve Stripling will coach the Chippewas in the GMAC Bowl.
Even with the change at the top of the program, the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas still think the Chippewas are the team to beat in this matchup, installing Central Michigan as 4-point favorites when the board lit up for the first time. Early wagering has moved the point spread down the hook to 3.5 at most offshore sportsbooks, but you can still find a few 4’s here and there (SportsInteraction), and even a few 3’s (5Dimes, Mirage, LV Hilton).
The over/under total opened at 64 and has dropped a point to 63 at a majority of the sportsbooks on the Web. There are a few 63.5s out there though if you want the half-point.
Two of the better but unknown quarterbacks in the college game will be featured Wednesday when Troy’s Levi Brown and Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour take the field. Both players were named their conference’s player of the year this season, as the pair has combined for over 7,600 yards passing and 64 touchdowns this season. Both quarterbacks also lead offensive attacks that average over 33 points per game, so this game could turn into battle of attrition.
Brown and the Trojans finished the year as the nation’s 3rd-ranked offense, amassing 480.7 yards per game with over 300 of those yards coming via the passing game (331 ypg – 4th). Brown threw for 3,868 yards and 22 touchdowns, with his favorite targets being receivers Jerrel Jernigan (947 yds., 4 TD) and Tebiarus Gill (553 yds., 3 TD). The Trojans pass the ball so well that their top running back, Shawn Southward, only had 573 yards rushing on the season despite a 5.8 yards per carry average.
On the other sideline, LeFevour literally IS the Chippewas offense. Not only did the senior throw for 3,042 yards and 27 touchdowns, but he was also the team’s leading runner (703 yards) and added 14 rushing touchdowns on the ground too.
Antonio Brown is the LeFavour’s top target (97 rec., 1,020 yds., 9 TD), but the Chippewas have six players that have at least two touchdown catches on the season, including their top running back Bryan Schroeder (5.6 ave., 5 TD).
It’s the defensive side of the ball where these two teams seem to separate themselves.
Central Michigan won the MAC title because they were able to play defense, limiting opponent’s to just 326.7 yards a game (207.4 ypg passing) and only 17.2 points per game, the 14th-best scoring defense in the NCAA.
Troy … not so much. In fact, the Trojans allow almost as much yardage (420 ypg – 107th) as they put up themselves, and they also allow over four scores a game (28.6 ppg – 87th), so defense is something of a four-letter word in the land of Troy.
As mentioned, this will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools. It will be the Chippewas fourth-straight bowl appearance, but their first in the GMAC Bowl. Troy will also be making their first appearance in the GMAC, but will be making their second straight bowl appearance and fourth in the last six years.
As far as betting trends go, there are a few that make you stop and pause.
Troy is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
The over is 10-1 in the Trojans last 11 games as an underdog, and it’s also 11-5-1 in Central Michigan’s last 17 non-conference games.
Badger’s Pick: When in doubt, I gotta go with the team that plays better defense. Both offenses are going to score, but the Chippewas are better equipped at stopping the Trojans every now and then. Take Central Michigan minus the 3.5-points.
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