Rose Bowl Preview and Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS), 5:00 p.m. EST, Friday, January 1, 2010, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif., TV: ABC
by Badger of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Ohio State +3.5/Oregon -3.5
Over/Under: 50.5

Bet this game at reduced odds -105 using your credit card (when you make your football bets on Friday's) at Sportsbook.

As former college football announcer Keith Jackson would say, “we’ve got a dandy of a game” scheduled for the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on New Year’s Day, when the 10-2 Ohio State Buckeyes of the Big 10 Conference travel to take on the 10-2 Oregon Ducks of the PAC 10 Conference.

The only problem is that neither team really wants to be in Pasadena on New Year’s Day, they’d rather be playing a few days later in the BCS Championship game on January 7th.

The Buckeyes enter the Rose Bowl on a five-game winning streak, including huge wins over Penn State (24-7) and Iowa (27-24) before they won their rivalry game over the Michigan Wolverines to finish the season, 21-10.

If not for one big turd of a game back on October 17, a 26-18 loss to Purdue, and despite a last-second loss to USC early in the season, the Buckeyes would have a claim to being in the big game in Pasadena a few days later.

Ironically, the Ducks season is similar to the Buckeyes.

Oregon also enters the Bowl season with a modest three-game winning streak, including a big, 37-33, victory over rival Oregon State in the “Civil War” game to earn the rights to represent the PAC 10 in the Rose Bowl.

Just like OSU, the Ducks also lost a high-profile game early in the season, an 18-9 loss at Boise State, but rebounded nicely to put themselves in position for an outside chance at the BCS title before dropping a dud against Stanford, 51-45, in early November.

Now these two will have to settle for a Rose Bowl victory as a consolation prize when they tussle on New Year’s in the Granddaddy of them All.

The early line out of Las Vegas opened with Oregon as 3.5-point favorites, and surprisingly the point spread has had little or zero line movement all month. In fact, with the exception of a few offshore sportsbooks that list the point spread at Oregon minus -4, just about every book has yet to move the number at all.

The over/under total opened at 51.5 back in early December, but it dropped early and quickly and is now listed at 51 (at all of the Las Vegas books) or even 50.5 at the rest of the sportsbooks on the Web. Although there is still one offshore book, SportsInteraction, that still lists the total at 51.5.

Fans of college football should be excited about this game, because it will feature two of the more exciting playmakers at quarterback in the entire NCAA in Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli and Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor.

Masoli has thrown for over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns, but his 659 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns that make the Ducks so dangerous on offense. When teamed up with running back LaMichael James (1,480 yds., 14 TD), Masoli and the Ducks are the NCAA’s 6th- best running attack at 236.1 yards per game and a potent scoring machine averaging over 37 points per game (37.7 ppg – 7th).

Pryor is also a duel threat quarterback, but he runs the ball (team- leading 708 yards, 7 TD) a little better then he throws it (1,821 yds., 16 TD/10 INT). Because of Pryor’s drawbacks at throwing, the Buckeye’s are a little more one-dimensional (19th in rushing – 106th in passing) in their attack and a little less explosive on the scoreboard (29.2 ppg – 48th).

But while both offenses are similar in style and substance, the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense.

Ohio State can boast the country’s 5th-ranked defense overall (262.5 ypg), the 4th-ranked defense against the run (83.4 ypg) and 5th in scoring allowing just 12.2 points per game. The Buckeyes worst outing as a defense this season came against Purdue, when they allowed 361 total yards and gave up 24 first downs.

Oregon’s defense is not nearly as strong as its offense, ranked 33rd overall allowing 329.4 yards per game and 23.6 points per game. For the Ducks to be successful against the Buckeyes they’ll have to play more like they did against USC (327 yards allowed, 4-for-14 on 3rd down) then they did against Stanford (allowed 505 total yards and 51 points).

These teams met once before, back in 1987, when the Buckeyes beat the Ducks at the Horseshoe, 24-14. That was a long time ago though, back when the Oregon program was a shell of what it is now, which explains why the Ducks were 22-point underdogs back then.

If you’re looking for betting trends to sway your opinion, there are a few interesting items to note for this game.

Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games as the underdog, 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games overall, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against the PAC-10.

Oregon is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.

The under might be a worthy bet as well, since the under is 8-2-1 in the Buckeyes last 11 games overall, 5-1 in the last six games versus the PAC-10 and 5-0 in games as an underdog. The under is also 5-2 in the Ducks last seven bowl games, and 13-6-1 in the Ducks last 20 games on grass.

Badger’s Pick: I don’t care what the trends say, this game is bound to go over. Ohio State has not seen an offense even close to the Ducks in the Big 10, and they can’t come close to simulating the attack on the scout team in practice either. Defense in the PAC-10 is optional too, so the Buckeyes should score too. Take the over of 50.5.

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