Akron Zips (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (5-5 SU, 5-5
ATS), 5:30 p.m. EST, Friday, November 20, 2009, Doyt L. Perry
Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio, TV: ESPNU
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Akron +10.5/ Bowling Green -10.5
Over/Under: 50.5
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Two of the Mid-American Conference’s middle-tier teams get a chance to strut their stuff on national television Friday night when the 5-5 Bowling Green Falcons host the 2-8 Akron Zips in Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio.
Bowling Green is making a late season push at the right time having won four of their last five games overall, including last week’s 35-14 victory over Miami of Ohio. Plus, a win this weekend over Akron would give the Falcons the sixth win they would need to become bowl eligible, so they have plenty to play for on EPSNU on Friday.
At 2-8, Akron has played exactly like their record indicates with all sorts of problems at quarterback and on offense. Last week the Temple Owls ran up a 56-17 thrashing on the Zips on their home field, one week after the Zips played their best game of the year in a 28-20 victory over Kent State. But when you’re down to your third-string QB as the starter, Patrick Nicely, things aren’t going to go so nicely all the time.
The point spread for this game reflects the Zips struggles, as oddsmakers opened the game with Bowling Green as 12-point favorites at home. The number has since adjusted itself all the way down to the Falcons minus -10.5 at most offshore sportsbooks, with a few 11s mixed in here and there, due to most of the early money coming in on the underdog Zips.
The over/under total opened at 50.5 and has yet to move in either direction.
As mentioned, the Zips offense is on their third quarterback this season, as both opening day starter Chris Jacquemain (suspended indefinitely) and his replacement Matt Rodgers (knee) have both been lost for the rest of the season. Nicely has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards already in 172 attempts, but is hitting on just over 50 percent of his passes (50.6) and has as many interceptions as touchdowns thrown (4).
Bowling Green’s offense is fun to watch if you like the quarterback in the shotgun with receivers running routes from every angle. The Falcons have a good quarterback in Tyler Sheehan (3,189 yards, 19TD-6INT) and one of the country’s best “unknown” receivers in Freddie Barnes (117 rec., 1,285 yards, 14 TD), which fuels the NCAA’s 4th-best passing attack at over 324 yards per game. But Bowling Green is strictly one-dimensional (rushing 71.5 ypg – 116th), which is why they only score 25.4 points per game.
The Falcons spread attack also leads to a lot of three-and-outs for the defense, which is part of the reason why the unit gives up over 383 yards per game and 27 points per game. Bowling Green is really weak against the run (200.5 ypg – 110th), which makes their .500 record on the season seem like a minor miracle when they can’t stop the run.
Akron’s defense is only slightly better than Bowling Green in allowing yards (261.8 ypg), but they simply give up too many big plays both in the air and on the ground as they allow over 28 points per game (28.8).
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This head-to-head series has played out even at 5-5 over the last 10 games (since 1996), but the Falcons hold a slim 5-4-1 ATS edge in the series.
This historically even rivalry has been enjoyed by Bowling Green much more of late, with the Falcons winning the last two straight including last year’s shootout, 37-33, on the road in Akron. The Falcons have covered the point spread in three straight, including the last time they met in Doyt L. Perry Stadium as 6.5-point favorites (a 44-20 win).
The over is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams, mainly because they’ve combined for an average of 65.6 points in those games.
Badger’s Pick: Akron just doesn’t have the offense to hang in this game long term, but they should have enough to make Bowling Green have to score to win it. Plus, the combination of bad defense and bowl-eligible motivation makes me think the Falcons will go over the total on their own. Take the over of 50.5.
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