No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. No. 16 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 8th, 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Razorback Stadium Fayetteville, A.R.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ALA -14/ARK +14
Over/Under Total: TBA
One of the marquee games in the SEC on Saturday will take place in Fayetteville when the no. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks attempt to knock off the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide inside Razorback Stadium. Arkansas faltered in their first SEC contest two weeks ago that resulted in the Razorbacks only loss this season at the hands of no. 10 Texas A&M. However, they will get a chance for redemption in a big way this Saturday as they seek program signature win over Alabama. If Arkansas is able to deliver the upset, it would snap a 9 year losing drought at the hands of the Crimson Tide.
Even though the Crimson Tide is the consensus number 1 team in the country and they have only truly been challenge by one team this year (Ole Miss), Alabama is about to embark on a 3 game stretch that is going to be tough even for Nick Saban’s group. The Crimson Tide starts on the road this week against no. 16 Arkansas, then follows that up with a trip to Knoxville to take on no. 9 Tennessee, then back home against no. 8 Texas A&M. Therefore Alabama is going to have their hands full over these next few weeks.
Alabama actually had their hands full last week against Kentucky at least for the majority of the first half. However, running back Joshua Jacobs got going and the defense scored a touchdown which put things into motion. It has become kind of a trend in some facets that the Alabama defense has ignited the offense. It was a fumble return for a touchdown that got the Crimson Tide back into the game against Ole Miss, it was an interception return for a touchdown that started the blowout against no. 20 USC, and it was another defensive touchdown that got the offense rolling against last week after a sluggish start against Kentucky.
I had my concerns about Alabama’s offense this season and I thought that might cause some early season struggles. While the offense has had some struggles, the defense has played absolutely outstanding and that is scary considering the offense should only get better as the year progresses. This week Alabama’s defense will have the task of trying to stop an Arkansas offense that is producing nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. Running back Rawleigh Williams has been a work horse for this team with 101 carries already through the first 5 games. Williams has produced 559 yards on the ground and 4 touchdowns as a result of those carries but it will be interesting to see if he gets the same type of workload against Alabama who ranks #1 in the FBS allowing just 2.43 yards per rush.
While I am sure Williams will get his touches, Arkansas will likely have to turn to the arm of Austin Allen to move the football. Allen has been surprisingly strong this year completing 67% of his passes for 1,232 yards with 12 touchdowns and just 2 picks on the season. I believe Chad Kelly shed some light on the best way to attack Alabama’s defense and I am more interested to see if Bret Bielema will dial up a game plan that will allow Allen to attack the field vertically.
Bielema typically keeps the football on the ground which may not be the best approach this week. However, Arkansas’s defense is good enough to keep them in the game if they can limit the big plays despite what the game plan may be on offense. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has a ton of talent but he does go through stretches of inconsistency. With running back Damien Harris still nursing an ankle injury, it will be interesting to see if either he or Joshua Jacobs can come up with some big plays in the run game to spark the offense. Last week, Jacobs was the guy that stepped up to rush for 100 yards on just 16 carries and this offense needs someone to step up on a more consistent basis especially over these next few weeks against teams that will be capable of delivering the upset.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: While many expect Arkansas to be challenge to worry about the least over the next 3 games, I actually think they could be the biggest. This Razorbacks team is gritty and they will put up a really tough fight. This has been a close game in each of the last 2 years and it will be again on Saturday. Take Arkansas +14
Bet this game at one of the oldest and most trusted sportsbooks online: Bookmaker. They also have one of the best LIVE BETTING features as well as a generous sign-up bonus!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!