No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Auburn Tigers (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS), Saturday November 26th, 2011. 3:30PM EST, College Football Week 13
Jordan Hare Stadium Auburn, Alabama
By Jay Horne, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ala -21/Aub +21
Over/Under Total: OFF
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The Iron Bowl takes center stage this Saturday when the Auburn Tigers host the no. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide inside Jordan Hare Stadium. The roles for each team have been reversed from last year's game when Alabama tried to stop Auburn's march to a National Championship. The Tigers led by Cam Newton stormed back from a 24-7 halftime deficit to beat Alabama 28-27 in that game before going on to win the National Championship. This year it is Alabama who has hopes to earn a trip to play for the National Championship and it will be the Auburn Tigers trying to foil those hopes when the two teams collide this Saturday.
The Tigers bounced back with a 35-16 victory over Samford after being blown out by Georgia two weeks ago 45-7. It has been that type of up and down season for the 7-4 Tigers as they are in the rebuilding stages after losing 22 guys from last year's National Championship team. Still, the Tigers have performed better than some would have expected with their youth and have the opportunity to close out the year with what would be a huge win over their arch-rival. However, Auburn does not have the explosive offense they did a year ago and will battle one of the best defensive units in the entire nation.
The only way Auburn has had any success this season is by running the football on the ground. Auburn has racked up 183 yards per game on the ground this year which gives them the 35th best rushing offense in college football. Running back Michael Dyer has been Mr. Everything for the offense. Dyer has single handedly carried the rushing attack this season carrying the ball for 5.2 yards per carry while racking up 1,194 yards and 10 scores on the season. Also, backup tailback Onterio McCalebb has also run the ball well this season averaging 5.4 yards per carry for just over 500 yards on the year.
The Tigers have proved all season that they are an effective rushing team despite major struggles throwing the football with QB Barrett Trotter. However, that rushing offense will get the privilege of battling the nation's best defense this Saturday as they attempt to deliver a milestone upset. Alabama currently ranks 1st in overall, scoring, and rushing defense this season. The Crimson Tide has given up just 74 yards on the ground, 195 yards, and just 8.36 points per game this season. Those numbers are simply incredible for any defense and especially from a defense from the SEC.
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For Alabama, they are also led on offense by a premier rushing attack. The Crimson Tide currently sports the 16th best rushing unit averaging 216 yards per game on the ground. The rushing attack is led by All-American running back Trent Richardson. Richardson has simply been unstoppable this season rushing for 1,380 yards and 20 scores on the ground alone. Richardson has also been a valued contributor in the passing attack out of the backfield making him a dangerous threat in more ways than one. Richardson's numbers have him in the Heisman Trophy consideration and he will get at least 1 more opportunity to make his case for that award this Saturday.
Richardson leads the Alabama rushing attack which will run the ball about 70% of the time. However, sophomore QB A.J McCarron has really progressed over the course of the season completing 66% passing for 2,216 yards with 13 scores and 5 picks. McCarron's play has been so strong that in recent weeks the Crimson Tide offense has attempted a lot more passes down the field. Alabama typically sticks to their running attack and Coach Nick Saban focuses on ball security. Since the defense keeps them on the short field, the Alabama offense has not had to be explosive to score points. However, if McCarron continues to throw the ball well this offense will continue to take shots down the field in attempt to strike quickly.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: As we all know Alabama and LSU are nearly identical in terms of the way they match-up against opponents. LSU blew this Auburn team away earlier this year 45-10 and I do not see any way the Tigers defense can keep them in contention this Saturday. Roll Tide -21
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