No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date and Time: Saturday November 16th, 2013. 7:45PM Eastern
Where: Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, M.S.
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ala -25.5/MSU +25.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
Top ranked Alabama takes their undefeated campaign on the road this Saturday night when the Crimson Tide roll into Starkville for a meeting with the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are currently 4-5 SU following back to back road losses to a pair of highly ranked teams in South Carolina and Texas A&M. Not only are the Bulldogs desperate to end their recent losing skid but Mississippi St. is going to need at least two wins in their final 3 games to become bowl eligible. Needless to say that will be a tough task to accomplish considering the nature of the remaining schedule starting with Alabama this Saturday night.
The Alabama-Mississippi State series has been referred to as the Battle for Highway 82 relating to the stretch of interstate that connects both campuses that are only 90 miles apart. However whether this series qualifies as a true rivalry, remains up for debate. The Crimson Tide has dominated the series with a 77-17-3 SU mark which results in the most losses any one school has handed Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have not beaten Alabama since the 2007 season and they will be rather large 25.5 point underdogs yet again this weekend.
The Crimson Tide have been nothing short of dominant since the 2nd week of the season including an impressive 2nd half performance last week against LSU. Alabama led 17-14 in a close game at the half before shutting down the Tigers prolific offense in a 38-17 victory. Alabama's defense has been incredible holding opponents to just 10.6 points per game as the best scoring defense in college football. If the defense is not dangerous enough, Alabama's offense seems to be clicking right now as well by averaging 45 points per game over the last 5 outings.
Quarterback A.J McCarron is playing mistake free football (19 touchdowns, 3 picks) and they are starting to get the ball to star receiver Amare Cooper more often each week. Additionally, the physical Alabama run game has found another devastating 1-2 punch with running backs T.J Yeldon and Kenyan Drake. Ironically Alabama appears to be putting together yet another National Championship run by the same old Nick Saban formula that has won the last two championships which is a dominate defense and an overwhelming physical rushing attack.
For Mississippi State to break down that winning formula, the Bulldogs will need to put together a similar formula. Despite what the Bulldogs record may show, they are extremely talented along both the offensive and defensive lines. Dan Mullen's defense has been solid against the run but has struggled to stop the pass. While Alabama does not have a weak passing attack, they definitely prefer to run the ball most often. Therefore the Bulldogs defense needs to come up with some stops and make sure they get off the field in order to give the offense a chance. Offensively QB Dak Prescott is coming along nicely behind center. Prescott started the season sharing the majority of the snaps with Tyler Russell but has nearly taken over. Prescott has tossed 7 touchdowns and 7 picks but has become an extremely important metric to the Mississippi State rushing attack. Prescott leads the team with 722 yards on the ground which is nearly double the amount of yardage running back LaDarius Perkins has tallied. Obviously that dual capability, makes the Bulldogs offense tougher to defend and perhaps we will see just how good the young quarterback is this Saturday against the best defense in college football.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am a little shy to make a big play on this line. While I believe Alabama covers, I would not be surprised to see Mississippi State keep this one close if they get a solid effort up front. I would consider myself a small lean in favor of the Crimson Tide but believe a better play will be on the 'under' once the total is released. Good Luck!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!