No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS), Saturday November 12th, 2011. 7:45PM EST. College Football Week 11, Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, M.S.
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ala -17/MSU +17
Over/Under Total: 42.5
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A week after losing one of the most anticipated games in recent college football memory the Alabama Crimson Tide now look to regroup as they travel to Starkville to battle the Mississippi State Bulldogs. As we all know, the Crimson Tide lost a heartbreaker to top ranked LSU in overtime last week 9-6. The loss puts Alabama on the outside looking in at a possible rematch opportunity for the National Championship. The Crimson Tide would need to win out and get some help with losses from both Stanford and Oklahoma State. However, that possibility may not be as far-fetched as some may think.
Still Alabama will have to take care of what they can on the field starting this Saturday against the Bulldogs in Starkville. For the Crimson Tide, this game may be a bigger mental challenge than a physical one. Alabama and LSU have distanced their selves from the rest of the SEC by a wide margin which has been evident from their blowouts over the rest of their SEC Conference foes this season. However, the Crimson Tide must show that they do not have any lingering effects from that emotional hard fought loss to LSU last week. If Alabama gets caught with a hangover, the Bulldogs will be ready to jump on the opportunity to deliver a seemingly unthinkable type upset.
To add caution for bettors ready to jump on Alabama and the 17 points, Davis Wade Stadium is one tough place to play for visitors especially at night when the "cow bells" are ringing loudly. This is the same Mississippi State team battled LSU closely in a 19-6 loss earlier this year at home and barely missed out on another upset losing to South Carolina 14-12 at home. Therefore, the Bulldogs will be ready for the challenge and their fans will be as well. For Mississippi State to have a shot, they will have to get a very strong offensive effort. The Alabama defense ranks 1st in nearly every major defensive category in the nation. For example the Crimson Tide rank 1st in rush defense giving up just 56 yards per game, ranks 1st in total yards giving up just 187 yards per game, and 1st in scoring giving up just 7.11 points per game.
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Therefore, the Bulldogs must find a way to move the football and not become another "victim" to that Alabama defense. Mississippi State running back Vick Ballard may be the best player on the team. Ballard has rushed for 790 yards this season while adding 7 scores on the grounds. However, I'm not convinced anyone, outside of LSU, can beat Alabama on the ground. Therefore Ballard may need to become more useful in the passing game with some screen plays and routes out of the backfield.
Quarterbacks Chris Relf and Tyler Russell have both shared time behind center this year. Relf is best used for the rushing game because he is tough to bring down and come make plays with his legs. Russell may be the best passer of the two. However, both quarterbacks have completed less than 60% passing combined while throwing 14 touchdowns compared to 10 picks on the year. Russell will likely be the guy to get the opportunity to throw the football most often this Saturday. Therefore if Russell can keep his composure and get WR Chad Bumphis the ball, then the Bulldogs could possibly make this game more interesting than most expect.
For Alabama they simply need to stick to what they have done all year. Play great defense, let QB A.J. McCarron manage the game, and possibly most important keep the ball in the hands of running back Trent Richardson. Richardson has really made his case for the 2011 Heisman Trophy in recent weeks and had some really big plays against LSU last week. Richardson has posted 1,078 yards and 17 scores already on the ground this season. The Crimson Tide star running back has been the leader of a potent Alabama rushing attack that averages a healthy 214 yards per game on the ground this season. Therefore if Alabama keeps the ball in Richardson's hands again this week, good things are likely to happen.
QB A.J McCarron can also provide the talent to make plays in the passing game. The Crimson Tide offense has not needed to rely on McCarron this season, but he has not necessarily disappointed either. McCarron has completed 65.8% passing for 1,863 yards with 10 scores and 4 picks on the season. WR Marquis Maze has been the leader in the receiving game with 45 catches for 543 receiving yards. Maze can make big plays when needed and will be a guy that draws attention from the Mississippi State secondary. If both McCarron and Maze hook up a few times this Saturday, it should provide a boost for the offense to take care of business at Davis Wade Stadium.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm staying away from the side here. While I believe Alabama is by far the superior team, I am just a bit gun shy that they may get off to a slow start. The play here will be the under total. The total has yet to be released in this game, but college football totals normally do not get lower than the 40-42 range. Even if the total is released at this type of range, I would still make a big play on the under. The Bulldogs offense has struggled and I can see Alabama's offense having trouble getting things going in a hostile environment on Saturday night. Make a play on the under once the total has been release and thank me later. Good luck!
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