No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) vs. No. 15 Florida Gators (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS)
College Football SEC Championship Game
Date/Time: Saturday December 3rd, 2016. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Georgia Dome Atlanta, G.A.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ALA -24/FLA +24
Over/Under Total: 40
Perhaps the most prestigious conference champion in college football will be crowned this weekend when the no. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide meet the no. 15 Florida Gators inside the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship. Of course the SEC has not been as competitive this season as compared to previous years. Alabama has been the clear frontrunner in the conference and the entire FBS for that matter all season whereas Florida is the next closest top tier opponent with 3 losses on the season. As a result, the Crimson Tide will be rather huge 24 point favorites when the two teams collide inside the Georgia Dome on Saturday.
The 2016 SEC Championship Game will feature two of the best defenses in college football. Alabama has taken over as the number 1 ranked defense in the country surpassing Michigan in recent weeks. However, I have said all year that Alabama’s defense is the best in the country. They currently rank number 1 in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, and have produced the most defensive touchdowns as any team in America. However, Florida is not too far off those inspiring defensive stats. The Gators rank 6th in total defense, 5th in scoring, and are tied with Alabama with 21 turnovers forced on the season. Therefore, there is a reason this is the lowest total (40) of all the championship games that will be played this weekend.
The big difference that makes up the 24 point spread in this game is the play of the offense. Florida has struggled significantly moving the football averaging just 14.75 points over their last 4 games. The quarterback play has been pretty bad all year. Some may point out the fact that backup quarterback Austin Appleby is to blame for the lack of offense in recent weeks since former starter Luke Del Rio was lost for the year. However, Florida quarterbacks have combined to complete just 58% passing on the season with 14 touchdowns and 10 picks. Appleby has accounted for 6 touchdowns and just 2 picks to put things into perspective.
The Gators have never been the strongest of passing teams in recent years as they have typically relied on defense with a strong running game to control their outcomes. However, Florida has not even run the ball well this season averaging just 141 yards per game on the ground which ranks 104th in the FBS. Sophomore running back Jordan Scarlett leads the Gators’ offense with 778 yards on the ground with 6 scores. However, he has been contained to just 112 yards combined in the Gators’ 3 losses this season. When Florida has not been able to run the ball, they have simply not moved the football and that is the main concern this Saturday against an Alabama defense that is by far the best run defense in America yielding just 2.2 yards per attempt.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama has had a lot more success with their offense. The Crimson Tide offense is loaded with play makers starting with freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts has completed 65% passing this year resulting in 2,454 passing yards with 21 scores and 9 picks. Hurts also ranks 2nd on the team in rushing with 840 yards and another 12 touchdowns on the ground. As seen on several occasions this year, this offense gets going with their quarterback so if Florida is going to have a chance in thwarting this offense they will have to shut down Hurts while forcing a few turnovers. Alabama has all the weapons around Hurts with running back Damien Harris along with receivers ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley. However, Hurts remains the key to this Alabama offense and the key to this outcome on Saturday.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Alabama has been one of the best money makers in the country this season going 8-3 ATS. I think their defense will be extremely dominant on Saturday similar to the way they matched up against LSU. The problem is if Florida responds and plays up to their potential; the 24 point spread becomes harder to reach. Therefore, I like the under 40 as the best play here. Good luck!
Attention Parlay Players! Payouts for mid-range parlays (5-10 teams) are almost double at Sportbet when you take advantage of their "Super Saver Bonus Program"! Dump your cheap bookie today and start getting paid more!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!