No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday September 17th , 2016. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, M.S.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ALA -10/MISS +10
Over/Under Total: TBA
One of the colossal SEC matchups of the season will transpire this Saturday when the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide roll into Oxford for a date with the no. 19 Ole Miss Rebels. Alabama currently owns the longest active winning streak in the FBS with 14 consecutive wins stemming from last year’s National Championship run. Ironically, the team that handed the Tide that last loss is the same Ole Miss Rebels team that they will play this Saturday. In fact, the Rebels have actually won the last two regular season meetings over Alabama. In both victories, the Rebels were underdogs and they will be in a similar situation again when both teams tangle inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford.
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly will get the chance to earn his 2nd straight victory over Alabama. In last year’s matchup, Kelly connected for 3 touchdowns and rushed for another as the Rebels put up 43 points in the 43-37 victory. It was the only time all year that we saw Alabama’s top ranked defense on their heels through all 4 quarters. The question this week is can Kelly and the Rebels offense come up with another big outing? Alabama’s defense has been nothing short of incredible through the first two games. The Crimson Tide has given up just 16 points combined in their first two games including that 52-6 shellacking over 20th ranked USC in the opener. During that same stretch, the defense has given up just 220 total yards on average in each of those games.
I know Alabama’s defensive prowess is nothing new and the Rebels have been able to overcome their tough defense in their recent meetings. However, Ole Miss does not have the big wide receiving threats on the outside that they have had in recent years. Laquon Treadwell and Cody Core both played big roles in the prior two upsets over the Crimson Tide. In each upset, the Rebels offense threw for 3 passing touchdowns. The size and physical nature of those receivers proved to be the advantage over the Alabama corners which gave the Rebels opportunities in the passing game.
The problem with this week’s matchup if you are hoping for a Rebels “Hat Trick” is the fact that this offense does not have any proven go to guys in the receiving corps. Tight end Evan Engram has been the biggest target for Kelly so far this season with 11 receptions and 164 yards. The offense has been hoping that WR Damore’ea Stringfellow can be that go to threat but that has not quite been the case so far. I believe Kelly is a good enough quarterback to get the job done again this week but I am just not as convinced in the supporting cast around him.
Meanwhile, Alabama has been pretty solid thus far offensively. After a somewhat shaky start in the opener against USC, freshman Jalen Hurts has put together 6 solid quarters of play behind center. Last week, Hurts was 23 of 36 for 287 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 38-10 victory over Western Kentucky. Both ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley have big play potential on the outside. Both receivers are only going to get better as the offense progresses.
The same could possibly be said for the running back position. Going into the year, Bo Scarbrough was expected to be the new Nick Saban work horse but that has not exactly unfolded as planned. In fact, Damien Harris has proved to be the best rusher so far this season with 183 yards on just 20 carries. It will be interesting to see how this Alabama offense evolves over the course of the season and in their first big SEC game this week. You can tell the offense has enormous potential but they are still a team that is trying to piece together their identify on the offensive side of the ball. Will more answers or questions arise this Saturday?
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a tough play but I am just not convinced Alabama has everything clicking on offense yet. I know the final scores may not indicate any weaknesses but I expect things to be different on the road in Oxford this week. The Rebels will find a way to compete for the victory! Take Ole Miss +10
Bet your Bama/Ole Miss pick at an online sportsbook where your credit card WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a generous 100% bonus up to $250 FREE: Bovada Sportsbook. Great live in-game betting too!
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2016/2017 College Football Predictions - Bob gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2017 National Championship game at Raymond James Stadium on January 9th.
2016 Heisman Trophy Predictions - DeShaun Watson is favored to win the award at +575 with Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey (+575) and LSU RB Leonard Fournette (+850) close behind. However, the real value may be with Oregon Ducks RB Royce Freeman at 40/1.
2016-2017 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football experts have the National Championship as a 4-horse race which includes Bama at +665, Clemson +725, LSU +900 and Ohio State +1075. Teams on teh bubble include Oklahoma at +1200, Michigan +1300 and FSU at +1350. Jay gives his pick to win it all along with how his top 15 rankings for season's end. Get your bets in early before your favorite team's line drops!
MyBookie - Get a HUGE 50% bonus (up to $1000 FREE!) after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
Bookmaker - Offers a HUGE 50% sign up bonus up to $300! Enjoy LIVE college football betting where you can jump into the action at any time during the game and place a bet! This gives you a huge advantage!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Clemson QB DeShaun Watson will have the ball in his hands a TON and he plays on a good team so he's the obvious favorite to win the award this year at +575. Leonard Fournette at 8.5/1 looks like he could play in the NFL right now. Bama WR Calvin Ridley brings experience and big-time playmaking ability and will be featured on National TV a bunch, giving him a legit darkhorse shot. It's unlikely to happen as offensive players usually win this honor, but Michigan DB Jabrill Peppers (75-1) and Texas AM DT Myles Garret (110-1) could be in the running as well. It might be a good year to bet more than one prediction!
Odds to Win the 2016 College Football Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +700 followed by Ohio St. at +750 and Clemson at +800. Things drop off a bit with the Michigan Wolverines, LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners all coming in at +1200. Check out your favorite school's odds here!