No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) at Ole Miss Rebels (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS), Saturday October 15th 2011. 6:00PM EST, College Football Week 7
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, M.S.
By Jay Horne, NCAA Football Handicapper of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Bama -25.5/Mississippi +25.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
The Ole Miss Rebels snapped a two game losing skid last week with an out of conference victory over Fresno State 38-28. It was just the 2nd victory of the season for the Rebels who are 2-3 on the season and still in search for their first conference victory. This week things are bound to get tougher for the struggling Rebels as they host the no. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium this Saturday night.
For the visiting Crimson Tide, they appear to be on a collision course with LSU for not only the best in the SEC but possibly the opportunity to play for the National Championship. Alabama has simply been dominant beating all opponents by at least 16 points and an average margin of victory of 28 points in SEC conference match-ups. I have claimed a couple of times this season that Alabama maintains the best defense in America and they have not disappointed that claim yet.
Last week the Crimson Tide recorded their 2nd shutout of the season by thumping Vanderbilt 34-0. In fact, the Alabama defense has now given up just 24 points in the last 4 games which averages out to just less than a touchdown given up per game. The Crimson Tide defense owns the top scoring defense in the country giving up just 7 points per game and has only relinquished 191 yards per game on average. This week the Crimson Tide defense will have their ears pinned back again as they battle a struggling Ole Miss offense that ranks nearly dead last in the NCAA averaging just 274 yards per game.
On offense, Alabama is not exactly an explosive group but in reality they do not need to be. The Crimson Tide offense focuses on ball security and a strong running game. Coach Nick Saban understands that his defense is going to win most games as long as the offense does not beat their selves. Freshman QB A.J. McCarron is coming along nicely at the quarterback position after a slow start. McCarron had career high numbers last week completing 23 of 30 passing for 237 yards with 4 scores and 0 picks. Coach Saban is not scared to call plays to allow his freshman quarterback the opportunity to throw the ball down field. Therefore if McCarron continues to improve, then the playbook will open more as the season progresses.
Still, the running game is the bread and butter of the Alabama offense. All-SEC running back Trent Richardson has been solid behind and very good Alabama offensive front. Richardson recorded his 5th straight 100 plus yard running performance last week against Vanderbilt with 107 yards rushing and 1 touchdown. On the season, Richardson ranks 2nd in the SEC in rushing with 729 yards and also leads the conference in rushing touchdowns with 11 total. Expect another heavy dose of Trent Richardson this Saturday when the Crimson Tide attempt to stay undefeated.
The biggest question surrounding this Saturday's match-up is will the Rebels offense be able to find a way to move the football? So far this season, Ole Miss has just been horrible on offense and was even held to just 7 points in a loss to lowly Vanderbilt earlier this season. Its one thing to struggle an offense, but it's another to be facing those problems against a team like Alabama.
Rebels QB Zack Stoudt has been simply horrible completing 50% passing with 2 touchdowns compared to 6 interceptions. Last week, junior Randall Mackey got the nod behind center and completed 8 for 18 passing for 214 yards with 1 score. Mackey may get the call again this week as he can also run with his feet and keep the play open longer. Still, the Rebels lack playmakers in the receiving game to expect things to change drastically. However, Ole Miss did find encouragement in the running game last week behind tailback Jeff Scott. The Rebels handed Scott the ball last week 24 times and the sophomore responded with 138 yards with 2 scores. Expect the Rebels to try and run the ball early this Saturday to prevent any further quarterback woes in effort to find a way to move the football.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This pairing is very similar to the Alabama vs. Vanderbilt pairing from a week ago. I backed the Crimson Tide last week and I think the defense does it again this week. Take Alabama -25.5.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert College Football Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2014 College Football Predictions - Badger gives his picks to win each major conference. At the end, he gives his prediction on who thinks will win the 2015 National Championship game.
2014 Heisman Trophy Predictions - Jameis Winston is favorited to win the award at 3-1 odds but Jay says this is a sucker bet! Marcus Mariota should be a contender and ball carriers TJ Yeldon and Melvin Gordon look good as well!
2015 College Football Championship Predictions - NCAA football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2015 National Championship. Despite not liking to side with heavy favorites, he believes the Alabama Crimson Tide are unstoppable and he has high expectations for them to cash his betting ticket at season's end!
Sportsbook - Get a free $100 bet after making an initial deposit of $100 or more! Great at getting Visa cards to work for deposits.
Bovada - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! HUGE menu of wagers for you to choose from! One of few online sportsbooks to offer Texas Hold'em! 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
GTBets - Offers a HUGE 100% sign up bonus up to $500! Cool offer allows for you to pick 2 of your favorite college football teams and move the line a full point every time you bet those teams!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - This article is outdated and will be updated next year for the 2014 college football season.
Odds to Win the 2015 BCS Championship - The Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to be repeat winners of the National Championship this year at +500 followed by Oregon at +800, Ohio St. +850, LSU/Texas A&M +1200 and Florida/FSU both at +1400. Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
Fantasy College Football - Draft a fresh team every week! Leagues range from $2 to $420! You can play head to head or in big groups! Payouts take place approx. one hour after the final Saturday game.
The Spread - Who will cover the spread? They will! Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!