No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) at No. 1 LSU Tigers (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS), Friday November 25th, 2011. 2:30PM EST. College Football Week 13
Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, La.
By Jay Horne, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ark +13.5/Louisiana St. -13.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
Make the Razorbacks +33.5 by placing them into a 20 point teaser at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
Every season college football closes out the year with an event known as rivalry week. It's a remarkable end to the college football season highlighted by some of the oldest and most fierce rivalries in college football. Tradition is what makes college football so special and rivalries are a time capsule to that tradition. This Friday the Arkansas-LSU rivalry will be capture major attention as it will feature the top ranked LSU Tigers who will host the no. 3 ranked Arkansas Razorbacks in a game with National Championship implications on the line.
The no. 3 Razorbacks jumped up several spots in the polls this week thanks upset losses suffered by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Clemson, and Oregon. The Razorbacks already had the chance heading into this Friday's showdown with LSU to score a victory to cause a 3 way tie in the SEC West. Now with the help of those previously mentioned losses, the Razorbacks could make their case for a National Championship with a win over the Tigers this Friday. This rivalry has flown under the radar in the past despite some great games. This year all eyes will be on the "Battle for the Golden Boot" giving each year to the winner between the Razorbacks and Tigers.
In the last 6 games, both LSU and Arkansas have split those games at 3-3 SU. In fact, all 6 of those games have been decided by one score or less in those events. No other rivalry in the nation has had results that close in the last 6 years and college football fans should be prepared for another huge battle this Friday. A few weeks ago LSU defeated Alabama 9-6 in overtime in a game many labeled as the "Game of the Century." That win seemingly put the Tigers in the driver seat to make it to the National Championship. However, both the media and the public overlooked the Razorbacks who have now climbed their way into the National Championship discussion. This week you can call it the "2nd Best Game of the Century" when the No. 3 Razorbacks collide with the top ranked Tigers.
As we all know, the Tigers defensive reputation precedes itself. The Tigers own the 2nd best scoring defense giving up just 10 points per game and the 2nd best defense overall allowing just 247 points per game. Of course earlier this year, the Tigers shut down some of the nation's most potent offenses in Oregon and West Virginia. This week that Tigers defense will look to stop another extremely potent offense by way of the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Tigers defense has been their best offense this season keeping the Tigers "O" on the short side of the field. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if the Razorbacks are able to put together some drives to score points or at least just keep the field position battle neutral to allow their defense an opportunity.
Thanksgiving Weekend Promo: Double your bankroll by receiving a 100% sign-up bonus on your deposit of $50-$500 at BetRevolution.
One reason Arkansas should match-up well is because they have the best receiving core in the entire country. WR Jarius Wright has 61 catches for 1,002 yards and 10 touchdowns to his resume this season. Also, WR Joe Adams despite putting up moderate numbers this season is one of the most underrated receivers in the entire SEC. Both of those guys should be able to challenge that extremely talented Tigers secondary. Of course QB Tyler Wilson will have to play well against the LSU pass rush. Wilson has been solid this season completing 64% passing for 3,215 yards with 21 scores and 5 picks. Wilson has play especially well in the last few weeks and he will need to be on his game this Friday. The LSU defense tends to put a lot pressure on opposing quarterbacks so it will be critical that Wilson just gets what he can and avoid any costly turnovers.
If the Razorbacks keep from turning the ball over, they have a defense that can challenge the LSU offense. The Tigers are mainly a power rushing team that normally attempts to wear defenses down through the course of a game. Tailbacks Spencer Ware and Michael Ford both have over 600 yards rushing this season and 7 touchdowns a piece. Both guys can carry the work load behind that big LSU offensive line. However, the x-factor is QB Jarrett Lee whose main job is to manage the game. The key to LSU's offense is not beating their selves because their defense plays so well.
Lee has done an outstanding job doing that this season and avoiding turnovers with just 3 picks on the year compared to 14 touchdowns. Even though LSU is not necessarily a big passing team, when Lee throws the ball well the offense can be explosive. Defenses normally put so much focus on stopping the potent LSU rushing attack that it opens up opportunities in the passing game with star WR Reuben Randle. Therefore when Lee is able to capitalize on those opportunities, it has resulted in big plays through the air this season. However, LSU is not near as good throwing the ball when the ground game is not effective. If Arkansas can force LSU into those passing situations without any success on the ground, things could get interesting.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Odds makers opened the game at LSU -13.5 and 75% of early betting action jumped on the Razorbacks in this one. It will be interesting to see where the line moves throughout the week because I think that number is high for a rivalry of this caliber. Remember you normally can throw everything out in a rivalry game and the Razorbacks have played well enough to win this game outright. Take Arkansas +13.5.
Editor's Picks - Each weekend our very own in-house All-American Editor makes his NCAA point spread predictions in an attempt to force fumbles, sack and intercept your bookie!
Expert Picks - Free premium college foots plays against the spread from expert handicappers from around the web from week 1 through the National Championship.
Underdog of the Week Pick - We sort through it all and find out which University is getting "too many points" this week. If there was a Heisman Trophy for picking underdogs, we'd be a frontrunner. Expect a 57%+ winning percentage with these picks as we've got a keen ear for loud barking dogs.
Favorite of the Week Pick - Giving points means we start the game down. We're not a real big fan of betting college football favorites as it's similar to trading field goals for touchdowns but stick with us as we buck the odds each week, selecting the favored team with the best chance of covering the spread.
Over/Under of the Week - Expect great value from this pick each week as we've cashed in big on betting over/unders over the years.
Line Movement - NCAA football lines open early in the week and often times move up or down based on wagering activity, injuries to key players and weather. We decipher whether it's square or wiseguy action and predict the point spread winner based on value.
College Football Consensus Picks - We assess the public perception each week and let them pick the winners for us as we fade their selections which provides us with many trips into our bookies endzone.
Computer Picks - We enter them into the computer and the machine makes it's picks. This is a great guide especially when betting totals! These are available after the first few weeks of the season.
Trends - Despite what you have been told or read on tout sites, the trend ain't your friend. We however turn the tables and fade the almighty trend for what should be some great profits over time.
2011 College Football Predictions - Badger breaks down the top teams and lists their odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship as well. At the end he gives his pick on who thinks will win the 2012 BCS National Championship game.
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictions - The trophy is up for grabs with Cam Newton leaving for the NFL. This year's list of "Heisman Hopefuls" is a pretty balanced list and the award is truly up for grabs. Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck is the favorite at +450 with Oklahoma Sooners QB Landry Jones not far behind at +650. Check out Jay's predictions (with analysis) to win the coveted trophy this season.
2012 BCS Championship Predictions - College football handicapper Jay Horne gives his picks on who he thinks will win the 2012 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship.
Intertops - Boasts the highest credit card acceptance rate on the internet! You also get a free $20 bet on your first deposit and their loyalty program is AWESOME as it gives you continuous bonuses as your betting handle reaches certain levels!
5Dimes - 15 team parlays! 20 point teasers! Reduced juice betting odds! Buy up to 15 points! Most props on the web!
SBG Global - Best parlay odds in the industry! Get paid 12-1 on 4-team parlays!
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds - Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, LaMichael James or ? You make the call!
Odds to Win the 2012 BCS Championship - The Oklahoma Sooners are favored to win at 4.5 to 1 but will get a run from Bama (+550), LSU (+1200) and Oregon (+1400). Check out your school's odds here!
Heisman Trophy Winners - A full list of college football quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers who have made history on the field and won the prestigious award.
The Spread - Offers scores, odds, free game predictions, current news and more!
