No. 18 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), Saturday October 1st, 2011. 12:00PM EST, College Football Week 5, Cowboys Stadium Arlington, TX
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ark +3/Texas A&M -3
Over/Under Total: OFF
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The Cotton Bowl will be home to neutral soil this week when the no. 18 Arkansas Razorbacks collide with the no. 14 Texas A&M Aggies in a big rivalry showdown. The Arkansas-Texas A&M rivalry is one that has existed for well over 100 years and is now picking up steam once again. The rivalry came to a halt for nearly two decades following the 1991 season, but starting back in 2009 both schools rekindled the rivalry that has historically taken place at the home of the Cotton Bowl.
Both Arkansas and Texas A&M will enter this week's match-up in nearly identical situations coming off losses in conference play. Arkansas suffered a disappointing loss to Alabama last week 38-14 in a game they were outplayed from start to finish. Texas A&M suffered a heart breaking loss to Oklahoma State 30-29 in a game they felt like they should have won. Prior to last week's losses, both teams were ranked inside the top 15 teams in the country. Therefore, it is extremely important for both teams that they rebound this week to avoid dropping two games this early in the season.
Additionally, similarities from both teams carry onto the field as well. Both teams have very solid groups of players on both sides of the ball. In fact, both Arkansas and Texas A&M rank inside the top 35 in both overall offense and defense. Both offenses are averaging right at 37 points per ball game. However there are some differences especially in the way both offenses attack with the football. Arkansas tends to stretch the field with one of the best receiving groups in America. The Razorbacks run a heavy favored passing attack led by QB Tyler Wilson that can just eat away at defenses.
Wilson has completed 66.9% passing for 1,007 yards with 7 scores and 3 picks so far this season. Receivers Cobi Hamilton, Joe Adams, and Jarius Wright are all big time playmakers in the passing game. Each receiver has caught at least 15 passes for nearly 200 yards or more. Hamilton leads the group with 271 yards for 2 touchdowns while averaging nearly 20 yards per catch. The Razorbacks receivers do a great job of creating space and finding holes in the opposing defense to make plays. Overall the Razorbacks offense is a quick striking group, but Alabama proved last week that they can be stopped by getting pressure on Wilson and forcing mistakes. However if the Aggies defensive line fails to get pressure, Wilson has the ability and resources to shred defenses apart.
The Texas A&M offense is a bit more balanced in their offensive approach. The Aggies have two tremendous wide outs in Jeff Fuller and Ryan Swope to lead the passing game. Swope leads the team with 21 catches for 288 yards and two scores. QB Ryan Tannehill has completed 67% passing for 892 yards with 6 touchdowns and 4 picks. Last week Tannehill forced 3 turnovers which ultimately sparked the Oklahoma State comeback. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if Tannehill can rebound this week and avoid additional mistakes this Saturday.
However if the Aggies passing attack fails, then, they can still move the ball well through their running attack unlike the Arkansas offense. Aggies running back Cyrus Gray has been relatively quiet through the opening weeks of the season. Gray rushed for 1,133 yards and 12 scores in 2010 but has been held to just 268 yards with 4 touchdowns so far in 2011. However, Gray is a ticking time bomb and it is only a matter of time before he breaks open a big play. Additionally, backup running back Christine Michael has added 178 yards on just 25 carries and also made some plays against the Oklahoma State last week. Expect both running backs to get more touches this Saturday against an Arkansas rush defense that was shredded for 197 yards on the ground last week.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Both teams are pretty evenly matched in this game and both offenses should have some success. Overall, this game will be won by the team that can make a few big plays and possibly force a few turnovers. Therefore, I tend to believe the Aggies are better suited to come away victorious in this game. My wager is on the Aggies at -3!
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