Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Texas State Bobcats (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, December 3rd 2016, 7:30pm EST
Where: Bobcat Stadium – San Marcos, Texas
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ASU -23 / TSU +23
Over/Under Total: 54
Well this is going to be a tough one to break down! I was given the amazing opportunity to predict the outcome of the Arkansas State and Texas State Sun Belt Conference showdown this Saturday night. I actually had to look up what these two schools mascots were, that is how much I know about these programs. I had an idea what Arkansas State was but Texas State, I never even knew had an FBS team. That’s not good on my part I know. Anyhow, these Saturday night on ESPN2, we will see these two teams face on in Bobcat Stadium at 7:30pm.
Arkansas State comes in at 6-5 overall while Texas State sits at 2-9 in 2016. The Red Wolves of Arkansas State are 23 point favorites on the road over Texas State and the total points are set at 54 combined. Against the spread this season, Arkansas State is 6-5 just like their overall record while Texas State is 4-7 in the same area. This is going to be a tough one to call but we will do the best we can.
Arkansas State I have heard of and know pretty well. They play many big time opponents although they are in the Sun Belt Conference. The Red Wolves like I said earlier are 6-5 overall but they are 6-1 in their conference. They went on the road this year to play Auburn from the SEC which ended up being a blowout loss but other than that and a 31-10 loss to Toledo, Arkansas State even in their losses remain quite competitive. The Red Wolves defense is actually pretty decent allowing opponents to score just 22.9 per game but the offense is severely lacking. Arkansas State ranks 50th in passing yards, 103rd in rushing yards, and 87th in scoring offense. Good thing they have a solid defense or they could be the 2-9 team coming into this game. The key to this game however is to just not make mistakes. Texas State is not a good team…at all. And to be honest, as long as the Red Wolves just do not beat themselves, they should be okay Saturday night.
When I say Texas State is bad, they are bad. The Bobcats are 2-7 overall and have not won a conference game this season. Statistically, they are even worse on paper. Texas State is ranked 126th in the FBS, which is close to dead last in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The Bobcats allow opponents to score almost 42 points per game while only scoring 19 points per contest themselves. The run game is non existent as well ranking 128th in the nation averaging under 85 yards a game on the ground. Those numbers and inefficiencies have led to the following losses: 42-3 against Arkansas, 64-3 against Houston, 50-10 at New Mexico State, and the list goes on. This team is not competitive. How can they pull off the upset Saturday? I really do not know, but we do not care about that, what we care about is the 23 point spread. In order to keep this game close and respectable, Texas State needs to find some sort of running game. If they are left in 3rd and long situations and forced to pass the ball due to the lack of rushing, this game will drag on and Arkansas State will be able to run up the score. A run game is a must. Not only that, they have to play some defense. If Texas State is not going to stop the Red Wolves, they at least need to avoid the big plays. Make Arkansas State use clock and grind out drives. Shortening the game and keeping the score low is the key to staying within the 23 Saturday night.
I cannot express enough how little I know about these teams. I would be a liar if I said I had a good feeling about who will cover this spread. The public seems to like Arkansas State on the road seeing as how 66% of the action is on them as of Tuesday morning. I do not normally follow the public in these types of games, but after looking at the numbers and looking at both of these programs as a whole over the last few seasons, I just think Arkansas State comes in and beats the brakes off the Bobcats. I am sensing a 47-14 type game that is not even that close in the end. If I were to bet on this game, which I am not, I would take the Red Wolves to win big.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am going with the Arkansas State Red Wolves -23
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