Auburn Tigers (5-2, 4-2 ATS) at No. 9 LSU Tigers (5-1, 2-2-2 ATS)
Death Valley Baton Rouge, L.A. Saturday October 24th, 7:30PM Eastern
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Auburn +8/LSU -8
Over/Under: TBA
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Two different types of Tigers will fight this weekend down in Baton Rouge for an SEC showdown. The Bayou Bengals have had a week off since their loss to the Florida Gators and look to get back to work while continuing their fight for a chance to play in the SEC Championship. The Auburn Tigers are the other big cat in the fight this Saturday. Auburn was a surprise story in the conference just a few weeks ago with a big 5-0 start, but have recently fallen apart dropping their last two games to the mediocre likes of Arkansas and Kentucky. Auburn now desperately has to get back on track to avoid falling back into the depths of the SEC West.
Auburn at one time this season led the nation averaging over 500 yards per game through the opening weeks of the season. However, over the last two weeks their fast pace offense has not been as effective. The offense has held to a balanced offensive approach all year. QB Chris Todd averaged 246 yards per game through the first 5 wins of the season, but has only 213 yards in the last two games combined. Picking up the slack has been running back Ben Tate. Tate ranks 2nd individually in the SEC with 856 yards and averaging 122 per game. LSU has had problems occasions stopping the run this season and if that is the case this Saturday they will have their hands full with Ben Tate.
The Auburn defense has allowed points all year, but the offense was able to score points in bunches to overcome the defense. However, it has not been the same in recent weeks and they need more help from the defense down the stretch. Auburn is allowing 26 points per game this season and the defensive line has struggled even more. The Tigers run stop unit has not stopped anyone allowing 181 yards per game. Those same guys up front are also the reason Auburn ranks in the bottom of the SEC with just 1.71 sacks per game. The defense must be able to get a push up front this Saturday or the LSU offensive line could control the game.
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No. 9 LSU still has BCS Bowl and SEC Championship type hopes although most would say they are long stretch for those opportunities. The 9th ranked Tigers may not be the best looking team on paper, but they know how to win football games. LSU gave Florida all they could ask for and their defense will give Auburn plenty of challenges as well. The LSU secondary is extremely talented and they do a good job of playing man coverage. Not only do they stick to their coverage assignments well, but they have also forced 9 interceptions as a team this season. If the big defensive line can stuff Tate up the middle, then they will force Todd to beat their secondary which will be a tough task.
QB Jordan Jefferson has done a really good job at keeping the ball in the hands of the offense this season. Jefferson has not posted any jaw dropping numbers, but has been rather efficient completing 63% passing with 7 touchdowns and 3 picks. When Jefferson does drop back to pass, he has some of the most dangerous targets in the SEC to locate. WR Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver are both big time players. Both players have over 25 catches, 325 plus yards, and a combined 7 touchdowns to aid the offensive attack.
Of course LSU has not been satisfied by the way they have run the ball this season. Tailback Charles Scott has disappointed for the most part with 327 yards even though he still can has the ability to break open something big. Keiland Williams has not been the answer behind Scott with just 188 yards and the LSU offense ranks next to last in the conference with only 123 yards per game. Coach Les Miles has openly stated his frustration with the running game on numerous occasions and rightfully so. Scott and Williams combined for over 1,500 yards last season. Those numbers provoked high expectations in the running game, but it has not worked in LSU's favor thus far in the year. However if they can get the running game on track, this team could really end the year strong.
Jay's Pick - The wheels have already fallen off the Auburn bandwagon and there is no reason to hop back on board. Take LSU -8.
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