Ball State Cardinals (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) 8:00 p.m. EST, Week 12 NCAA Football, Tuesday, November 15, 2011, Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, Ill., TV: ESPNU
by Badger, Sports Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ball St. +18.5/NIU -18.5
Over/Under: OFF
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The Northern Illinois Huskies started their run towards a West Division title in the Mid-American Conference the past few weeks with big wins on the road, but this week they’ll try and take another step in that direction from the comfort of Huskie Stadium in DeKalb when they host the Ball State Cardinals this Tuesday on ESPNU.
The Huskies, who own a five game winning streak in MAC play, hope to continue their Tuesday night magic with another early-week contest against the Cardinals. Two weeks ago on Tuesday the Huskies claimed the driver’s seat in the West Division with a, 63-60, win over Toledo, then last Tuesday the took another step closer to the title with a, 45-14, victory over Bowling Green.
As the scores would indicate, N. Illinois has been putting the pedal to the floor on offense in the MAC with quarterback Chandler Harnish emerging as the leader in the race for MAC player of the year. Harnish was a one-man show at Bowling Green last week, running for 151 yards and a score and adding 294 yards and two touchdowns passing in the rout.
BSU will have had 10 days off prior to Tuesday’s tussle in DeKalb, spending last week off with a bye. They are coming off an exciting and emotional victory in their last game on November 5th, with kicker Steven Schott drilling a 44-yard field goal with nine seconds remaining in the game to give the Cardinals a come from behind, 33-31, win on the road at Eastern Michigan.
The win moved Ball State to 4-2 in the West Division of the MAC, a game behind co-leaders Toledo and Northern Illinois, and still within striking distance of a division title. But in order to win the title they will need to earn it the hard way, starting with a victory on the road Tuesday at Northern Illinois before hosting Toledo in the season finale on the 25th.
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Judging by the opening points spread the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas put on this game, the Cardinals task is daunting, with Northern Illinois opening as large 18.5-point favorites at home thus week. With a majority of gamblers spending Sunday and Monday wagering on the NFL, there hasn’t been enough action on this game to cause any line movement yet.
As of press time an over/under total has yet to be released. When that total is released though you can expect it to be very high, for a variety of reasons.
First of all, it’s a MAC game where defense seems optional. This game could be used as a case study for that point, since Northern Illinois is ranked 12th and Ball State ranked 13th in scoring defense in the 13-team MAC league.
The total will also be a big number because of the offenses these two will put on the field against the two weakest defenses in the league.
We’ve already mentioned the fact that the Huskies are led by the exciting Harnish at QB, but with the senior calling the shots for their spread-option attack the Huskies are ranked 9th in the country at rushing (250 ypg) and scoring at over 41 points per contest. With nearly 500 yards of total offense each week (486 ypg – 11th), it would be nearly inconceivable to expect the Ball State defense to limit the damage.
So the best way for Ball State to limit the damage would be to possess the ball for long periods of time on offense, which will put pressure on quarterback Keith Wenning and running back Jahwan Edwards to come through with huge games Tuesday.
Wenning has performed well this season with over 2,200 yards passing, a 64 percent completion rate and 15 touchdowns to nine interceptions, but he’s still learning the new offense installed by head coach Pete Lembo in his first season at Ball State. He does spread the ball around well, with six different receivers all with over 20 catches on the season, but none of them possess the type of game-breaking ability that allows for quick strikes. That is the main reason why the Cardinals struggle to score points in the red zone, and it explains why their season average of 23.8 points per game is so low (87th).
Edwards is probably the Cardinals most talented player (681 yards, 4.5 ypc ave., 10 TD), but with just 151 attempts on the season he’s not the type of running back to grind it out play after play to try and milk the clock and keep the ball away from the Huskies.
But of course, since they are playing against the Northern Illinois defense who knows how many carries he’ll need to get big yardage. The Huskies allow nearly 200 yards a game on the ground (190.1 ypg – 94th), so getting four or five yards per carry is not out of the realm of possibility this week.
Northern Illinois has won the last two games versus Ball State over the past few seasons, including a 59-21 victory on the road last year and a 26-20 win in 2009 at home in Huskie Stadium. In both game the Huskies were big favorites too, covering last year’s game as 15.5-point favorites but not covering the season before at home as 16.5-point favorites.
Overall the Huskies are 7-3 SU in the head-to-head series since 2001. The teams share a 5-5 ATS record over the same time span, but the Cardinals are 3-2 ATS in their last five visits to DeKalb in the series.
The betting trends can point to either team to make your argument, since Ball State is 4-0 ATS in their last four MAC games and 30-11 ATS in their last 41 road games (23-8 ATS as road dog). But Northern Illinois is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at Huskie Stadium with a 4-1 ATS mark on the weird Tuesday night telecast in their last five tries.
There’s not an under bet in the world that Northern Illinois is worth taking the chance on, but the under does have a few trends on the Ball State side. The under is 5-1 in the last six Tuesday night games that Ball State has played in on TV. The under is also 15-7-1 in the last 23 games that Ball State has played on the road, so wager with caution.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: After watching Northern Illinois run up the score the past few weeks on national television, I’m pretty sure the point spread is a little inflated by the oddsmakers in order to make up for the public’s short memory and perception. Northern Illinois will win the game, and could very well score another 50 to 60 points this week, but with that defense I don’t think they should be that big of a favorite on anyone. I’m taking Ball State plus the points.
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